Hublot is awesome, and the greatest words of wisdom I've ever heard with regard to watches... AKA, window shopping with @edge168n
I went on a watch window shopping trip maybe 6 months ago with @Edge168n. As always, I can listen to the guy wax eloquent about particular brands and particular models for hours on end, much in the same way I'll immediately devour every single word he posts in his "Watches in the Wild" column.
https://www.watchcrunch.com/Edge168n/posts/watches-in-the-wild-home-of-the-hype-volume-55-313677
We were standing in front of the Hublot counter at a multi-brand AD, when he said one of the most brilliant things I've ever heard anyone say about the watch world...
Me: Hublot sponsors the Premier League, and I saw them all the time on people’s wrists when I was in Europe. And, yet, all we ever see on WC is hateraid directed at Hublot.
@edge168n: Well, there's a difference between the people who actually buy watches and the people who just talk about watches.
Hublot hate
"But, @Mr.Dee.Bater, Hublot doesn't offer good value," I've read here on WatchCrunch many a time. "Such-and-such watch offers incredible value, while such-and-such other watch doesn't offer value..."
My reaction every time...
This post is an 8,000 word angry diatribe about labeling one watch “a good value” and labeling another watch “a bad value." You have been warned!
No... there is no such thing as "objective value" when it comes to luxury goods like watches. "Value" with regard to watches is a meaningless term that we bandy about in order to then proffer our own subjective judgements as universal moral truth - in other words, it's all just signaling. That's all.
How can I make such a definitive statement? Well, because it's definitional.
What is a luxury good?
When we talk about different types of goods, what we’re really talking about is “elasticity of demand.” Sure, we could dive into elasticity of demand, but I don’t think anyone here wants to read a high school economics lecture. So, suffice it to say, “normal goods” are goods which experience an increase in demand due to an increase in income. Luxury goods are a subset of normal goods...
In economics, a luxury good is a good for which demand increases more than proportionally as income rises. This means that people spend a higher percentage of their income on the luxury good when their income rises. Luxury goods are also called superior goods or upmarket goods.
Luxury goods are in contrast to necessity goods, where demand increases proportionally less than income. Necessity goods are essential for daily use and individuals consume them regardless of any change to their disposable income. Some examples of luxury goods include high-end apparel, jewelry and watches, luxury cars, and residential estates.
Necessity goods, meanwhile, are those things that are absolutely necessary for human survival.
See, watches are not like, say, water. We need water to survive. Being a necessity good, I'll pay $100/month for water whether I make an income of $30k/year or $3M/year. The value of a necessity good is objective, as it is objectively a necessity!
"But, I need to tell the time," I hear people say, "therefore, my watch is a necessity good!"
Yes, in modern life, we can grant that time-telling is a necessity. But, that necessity is covered by our phones, by the digital display on the microwave, by our computers, by hundreds of other objects all around us. At this point, in the First World, a watch - any watch - is a luxury good.
A $2.89 AliExpress "2022 New Fashion Designer Rectangle Dial Quartz Watch For Men Casual Leather Strap Luxury Business Wristwatch Relogio Masculino" watch is a luxury good...
A $21 Casio is a luxury good...
And a $4,225 Black Bay Pro is a luxury good...
Does one luxury good provide more objective value than another? Of course not. Because there is no such thing as objective value when it comes to luxury goods and services.
It’s entirely subjective, because it’s about personal, subjective utility functions
The person who buys the $2.89 AliExpress "2022 New Fashion Designer Rectangle Dial Quartz Watch For Men Casual Leather Strap Luxury Business Wristwatch Relogio Masculino" does so for his own personal reason. That person is seeking to maximize his own personal, subjective utility, based on his own personal, subjective utility function. Once he owns that watch, and proudly wears it on his wrist, does the $2.89 AliExpress "2022 New Fashion Designer Rectangle Dial Quartz Watch For Men Casual Leather Strap Luxury Business Wristwatch Relogio Masculino" provide him with value? Well, if he actually bought it, and likes it, then via "revealed preference" it did! Because he actually bought it and likes it! And we can see from his actions, his revealed preference, that it provides him subjective value.
The same can be said for the $4,150 Black Bay Pro.
And... the same can be said for the man who purchases and proudly wears the Hublot Classic Fusion with the (horrified gasp!!!) ETA movement!
"But, but you can get a watch with same ETA movement for $500..."
Here on WatchCrunch and all the other watch forums, the only reason we talk about specs and the “value" associated with those specs and movements, and in-house this, and out-house that, and hand guilloche, and Zaratsu polish, etc., etc., again, is to enable us to then proffer our own subjective judgements as universal moral truth - in other words, it's all just signaling!
Would I buy a Hublot?
Hell no!
But, that's only because in order for me to maximize my utility against my personal, subjective utility function, I want this...
And that's why I have a bunch of Grand Seiko. Is Grand Seiko a better value than Hublot? Objectively, of course not!!! After all…
I've told the story a couple of times now about how when I was young and single, I wore Kenneth Cole Reaction watches. They were the bomb! You cannot fathom the inestimable value they provided to me, because these watches were so blingy that they convinced a gal I had gone to college with that I must be doing okay in life, and based on that assessment she made, this happened one evening...
For my young and single purposes, my Kenneth Cole Reaction watches had 10,000 times the value of any conceivable Grand Seiko!!!
But, now, being old, pudgy, needing bi-focal glasses, but happily married, subjectively, to me, Grand Seiko is a better value than Hublot and a greater value than Casio and a greater value than the Black Bay Pro, and greater value than even the vaunted Kenneth Cole Reaction. Why? Because I am trying to solve for something very subjective with my watch collecting...
So, what subjective thing are you trying to solve for with your collection? And don’t say, “value”!!!
The Artist formerly known as @HotWatchChick69 and formerly-formerly @Omeganut
More from Mr.Dee.Bater
Wait you're telling me but my parmigiani isn't good value ?
But where will I put my retirement savings?
Wait you're telling me but my parmigiani isn't good value ?
But where will I put my retirement savings?
No, no, no, you're right. I should have included the following caveat:
"Yeah, but (insert favourite influencer) says that (insert favourite brand) is the best value on the market!"
Valid.
My only comment is, luxury good or not, when in various field environments around the world (usually in some pretty rough and/or hostile areas) or some secure areas where no phones are allowed, it's terribly convenient to have some modicum of time telling on person...🤏🏻
Checking time via a PRC-152 and/or DAGR is annoying, like REALLY annoying. And two is one, one is none.
Last thing I need is to forget how much time is left before BOOM... 😆.
Call me luxurious, but a wrist watch is needed. Granted it's a niche scenario...😂🤏🏻😉.
Flushed an Unholiest Watches article right down the crapper with this.
Thanks a heap!
Lol
But very interesting read.
"Yeah, but (insert favourite influencer) says that (insert favourite brand) is the best value on the market!"
Said no one ever about this..... @SpecKTator @samdeatton
Bwahahahaha 😈😜
No, no, no, you're right. I should have included the following caveat:
I completely endorse this not-at-all-facetious financial advice.
Of relevance, at a recent conference of institutional investors, I attended presentation on investing in watches run by some group out of Florida where the corporate fraud laws are weaker. They put up a chart of watch pricing conveniently ending on Jan 2023.
Me being the asshole I am, I raised my hand and asked about more recent pricing than,you know, a year ago. They conveniently ignored me. A watch nerd friend of mine, a senior investment officer at a very large family office with a mischievous streak, raised his hand and asked the exact same question.
They responded" well, it's an illiquid market so we don't have more recent pricing data that we trust."
El-oh-el.
I didtn read yet… but damn you and @Edge168n go on a date all the time !! I’m jealous!! I wanna come with!!
Said no one ever about this..... @SpecKTator @samdeatton
Bwahahahaha 😈😜
this is actually sick, and I usually hate invicta
"Yeah, but (insert favourite influencer) says that (insert favourite brand) is the best value on the market!"
You know, the other day, I pointed out some inanity to my wife. Like, you know, "Group A believes X, and if you just do a quick google search and bring up the source material, you quickly find that X is absolutely false." I then went into a diatribe about how low IQ all human beings are.
And, my wife, to her credit, simply responded, "Sure, it's partly that people are dumb, for sure. But, I think there are also a lot of fairly smart people who are just busy, and who give priority to the essentials of their immediate lives over fact checking what their peers say."
My reaction: grudging applause...
Maybe that's all it is with the whole "social influencer says such-and-such watch is good" thing? Like, if you don't really care about watches, and you don't want to spend much time on watches, you just look for social proof?
Richard Dawkins recently said something that blew my mind. He was talking about why we see so many irrational beliefs in the world. And his thing was that when it comes to things that people have control over and that affect their day-to-day lives, they behave VERY RATIONALLY. Like, the person who says, "All life is subjective," and truly believes it, like this...
... will at the same time, avoid walking out into the road when a car is barreling down toward him, because he has a rational reason to avoid being run over. But, when it comes to metaphysical beliefs, there's no immediate consequence or feedback to the belief, so it's okay to believe crazy stuff!
Valid.
My only comment is, luxury good or not, when in various field environments around the world (usually in some pretty rough and/or hostile areas) or some secure areas where no phones are allowed, it's terribly convenient to have some modicum of time telling on person...🤏🏻
Checking time via a PRC-152 and/or DAGR is annoying, like REALLY annoying. And two is one, one is none.
Last thing I need is to forget how much time is left before BOOM... 😆.
Call me luxurious, but a wrist watch is needed. Granted it's a niche scenario...😂🤏🏻😉.
Ha! Point taken!
Yeah, in my life, the most critical use case for my watches is...
I didtn read yet… but damn you and @Edge168n go on a date all the time !! I’m jealous!! I wanna come with!!
I am definitely watch buddy polyamorous. Just make your way to this side of the country!
I completely endorse this not-at-all-facetious financial advice.
Of relevance, at a recent conference of institutional investors, I attended presentation on investing in watches run by some group out of Florida where the corporate fraud laws are weaker. They put up a chart of watch pricing conveniently ending on Jan 2023.
Me being the asshole I am, I raised my hand and asked about more recent pricing than,you know, a year ago. They conveniently ignored me. A watch nerd friend of mine, a senior investment officer at a very large family office with a mischievous streak, raised his hand and asked the exact same question.
They responded" well, it's an illiquid market so we don't have more recent pricing data that we trust."
El-oh-el.
You know Bruce Greenwald? One time, in class, he just straight up said to us in the lecture hall, "Look, all of you guys going to work in wealth management and private client services? You don't add any value. Rich people just want to go shopping with their money, and ideally, they like to go shopping with smart, good-looking people hanging on their arms. That's what your job is going to be."
You would think that institutional investors would know beyond all doubt to avoid "alternative investments"!!! But, maybe they're hoping to just hang out with good-looking people? Was this Florida group staffed with hotties? Did the presenters look like this?
Flushed an Unholiest Watches article right down the crapper with this.
Thanks a heap!
Lol
But very interesting read.
Nah, man. As @Edge168n always says, it's not about the content, it's about the execution! You gotta do your article!
Said no one ever about this..... @SpecKTator @samdeatton
Bwahahahaha 😈😜
Dude! That is an incredible value! As far as I'm concerned, it's as eye-catching as this, but at a fraction of the price!
So Pyrite isn't gold for fools?
Thank you it was me asking for the TL;DR version but I've now read the full thing, great read, great writing, and spot on IMHO with your sentiments. Thanks again.
I always thought the ceramic Hublots are cool.
What’s stopping me from buying is some Youtubers keep bashing the brand 😂
My 90 year old accountant who is a retired partner in a large firm generally gives me credit for his love of genuine mechanical timepieces since until we became friends he preferred fakes that he collected on his annual 70 days luxury cruises to escape our Canadian winters. He pesters me with emails, text messages and even voice calls despite my reluctance to speak directly to most persons. I can recall exactly 3 watches that he has purchased without consulting with me first: a gold Cartier Ballon Bleu with a diamond bezel for his romantic lady partner, a steel Montblanc Nicolas Rieussec and most recently a Hublot Big Bang that he picked up from some boutique when he visited Singapore. I resisted the urge to criticize his new watch because in fact I am a fan of the Classic Fusion watch from the 80s despite the high price, ETA quartz movements but loved the look and the black rubber straps. My friend received an excellent retirement plan more than 25 years ago that pays him until his final days on the planet as if he is still working but I assume without the paid hours so he does have a lot of disposable dollars for his travels and hobbies. I once mocked his purchase of a Franck Muller watch that stopped running almost immediately after he pulled out his Amex card to complete the deal and received a bit of a lecture from my curmudgeon buddy. He said that any watch that he slips on has a single responsibility and that is to give him joy. Hopefully my friend does not believe the watches that I own and support are lacking that essential characteristic. Hell, after collecting watches for most of my adult life, I can think of no other reasons for buying the goofy often pricey affectations. Thx for your brilliant post.
You seem to be mistaking the word value and value. They mean totally different things. For instance:-
A watch dealer is selling a Hublot for 10 thousand pounds, another watch dealer is selling exactly the same Hublot for 7 thousand.
Objectively the second dealer is better value than the first dealer.
Then you are talking about subjective value. For instance:-
I value my Grand Seiko.
I value my Hublot.
You seem to be using the word value in both ways and presuming it means the same thing when it clearly doesn’t.
You know, the other day, I pointed out some inanity to my wife. Like, you know, "Group A believes X, and if you just do a quick google search and bring up the source material, you quickly find that X is absolutely false." I then went into a diatribe about how low IQ all human beings are.
And, my wife, to her credit, simply responded, "Sure, it's partly that people are dumb, for sure. But, I think there are also a lot of fairly smart people who are just busy, and who give priority to the essentials of their immediate lives over fact checking what their peers say."
My reaction: grudging applause...
Maybe that's all it is with the whole "social influencer says such-and-such watch is good" thing? Like, if you don't really care about watches, and you don't want to spend much time on watches, you just look for social proof?
Richard Dawkins recently said something that blew my mind. He was talking about why we see so many irrational beliefs in the world. And his thing was that when it comes to things that people have control over and that affect their day-to-day lives, they behave VERY RATIONALLY. Like, the person who says, "All life is subjective," and truly believes it, like this...
... will at the same time, avoid walking out into the road when a car is barreling down toward him, because he has a rational reason to avoid being run over. But, when it comes to metaphysical beliefs, there's no immediate consequence or feedback to the belief, so it's okay to believe crazy stuff!
Great post my friend. You and JC should start a Horo website and put the ‘Dink out of business.
Sad to hear my watches aren’t the outstanding values I feel they are.
Dawkins belief that ‘people will behave rationally when there are consequences’ seems oversimplified
Think: pedestrians and drivers deep into their phones while manoeuvring in traffic, anti vaccine folks believing in a single, old, retracted for fraud, study, to name a couple examples. ICU patients often arrive after doing stuff that would quite obviously put them in ICU or a morgue.
For the tenet to hold, it must very simple and basic. To the level of “if I put my head in this guillotine, it’s gonna be bad” ..before one is blessed with rationality 😉
So you’re correct! - people are pretty dumb
glad to know that my 200$ seiko is a luxury good, now i can sleep well. btw the basic classic fusion is a cool watch
Great post my friend. You and JC should start a Horo website and put the ‘Dink out of business.
Sad to hear my watches aren’t the outstanding values I feel they are.
Dawkins belief that ‘people will behave rationally when there are consequences’ seems oversimplified
Think: pedestrians and drivers deep into their phones while manoeuvring in traffic, anti vaccine folks believing in a single, old, retracted for fraud, study, to name a couple examples. ICU patients often arrive after doing stuff that would quite obviously put them in ICU or a morgue.
For the tenet to hold, it must very simple and basic. To the level of “if I put my head in this guillotine, it’s gonna be bad” ..before one is blessed with rationality 😉
So you’re correct! - people are pretty dumb
Ha! Yeah, I keep waffling between "dumb" and "rationally ignorant."
Maybe it's just a completely different set of preferences, right? Like, I used to rock climb. If I'd tied a knot the wrong way, I would be one of the people coming into your ICU. And, I'm sure somebody would say, "OMG, look at that dummy who ended up with 18 different fractures." But, I might respond, "I rationally knew the risks... I just have a different set of preferences from you, and am more thrill / risk seeking."
Then again, there's a whole movement that believes this is true...
I’ll push back. And I think I’m able to because the difference between both types of goods is not concrete with the examples you’ve presented. Like the AliExpress watch is luxury, why can’t the 100 bucks water bill; after all there are springs and other sources of water around you.
I’d like to hear your rebuttal to that.
Thought provoking piece nonetheless; good job!
That's fair. I guess it's a matter of definitions, and in this case we can tweak the definitions to say that one thing is a necessity good while another is a luxury good - it's not like physics, where the speed of light is always C.
Thank you it was me asking for the TL;DR version but I've now read the full thing, great read, great writing, and spot on IMHO with your sentiments. Thanks again.
Thank you, sir, for the kind words!
I always thought the ceramic Hublots are cool.
What’s stopping me from buying is some Youtubers keep bashing the brand 😂
Ha! It's funny, but we're all subject to influence, yeah?
I used to own a BMW M2 Competition. AMAZING car. Perfect in every way for my particular use case. Unfortunately, I started going onto car forums, and after some time, discovered just how much I disliked all the Internet trolls who also owned the same car. Soon, I found myself feeling a visceral disgust every time I looked at my car! Like, I'd come to associate the car with all the meatheads on the car forums! Had to sell, and can never again see a BMW without feeling a slight sense of disgust!
Ha! It's funny, but we're all subject to influence, yeah?
I used to own a BMW M2 Competition. AMAZING car. Perfect in every way for my particular use case. Unfortunately, I started going onto car forums, and after some time, discovered just how much I disliked all the Internet trolls who also owned the same car. Soon, I found myself feeling a visceral disgust every time I looked at my car! Like, I'd come to associate the car with all the meatheads on the car forums! Had to sell, and can never again see a BMW without feeling a slight sense of disgust!
That's an amazing car. 👍
I have a similar car. Yeah, I was influenced by a video game (Need for Speed)
I never visit car forums, because people think us bmw drivers take up 5 parking spaces when we park. It's ridiculous. 😭
My watches have objective value because they are tools, not accessories. I'm a tool, therefore every watch I have is a tool watch. Having many tools doesn't mean I'm buying frivolous luxuries, it means I live in a shed.
So, what subjective thing are you trying to solve for with your collection?
I'm 5'9 and 120 pounds. I have a 6 inch wrist, and I speak with a nasally East Midlands accent (oh ayup there meduck Ahm just off dahn the pub). I work in retail where I have to wear a specific uniform. Just once, in one area in my life I'd like to look a bit sexy, a bit like Clint Eastwood or Jason Statham. That's why I wear mil spec watches. And we all know that skirts practically take themselves off when you tell a girl that your watch is compliant with ISO 6425
So, what subjective thing are you trying to solve for with your collection?
I'm 5'9 and 120 pounds. I have a 6 inch wrist, and I speak with a nasally East Midlands accent (oh ayup there meduck Ahm just off dahn the pub). I work in retail where I have to wear a specific uniform. Just once, in one area in my life I'd like to look a bit sexy, a bit like Clint Eastwood or Jason Statham. That's why I wear mil spec watches. And we all know that skirts practically take themselves off when you tell a girl that your watch is compliant with ISO 6425
Good to see you back, man! Thought maybe we'd have to send out a search party to look for you!