Edge168n

JC
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7.50” / 19.05 cm Wrist
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Recent posts

Pondering The Broader Market: An Equity Analyst's Take on Swiss Watch Exports

Disclaimer: I do run a hedge fund and may at any time have a position in or against any company mentioned here, though I have no intention of doing so...
94

Watches in the Wild (Spring Break, Volume 59)

Disclaimer: Formex Essence 39 on Navy Saffiano ala Delugs. This is the fifty ninth(ish) in a semi-regular digest of cool watches I happened to see thi...
31

Oops I Did It Again: Make a Donation, Win a Jack Mason Strat-O-Timer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CduA0TULnow But this time I brought friends! My dear friend @valleykilmers sent me a watch for charitable raffle. You...
78

Recent Comments

commented on Watches in the Wild (Spring Break, Volume 59) ·

I've thought about this a bit and as a TLDR....I think every brand wants multiple successful lines but not every brand can do it.

Like AP has tried, mightily, to diversify away from the RO and ROO....and we got the widely panned 11:59.

The last three Tudor line introductions that I can recall have been broadly panned by collectors: the North Flag, the Ranger, and the P01. The Clair de Rose looks to be on its way to the same fate.

We can accuse executives of being too conservative but I think they're largely just following where the money is. Watch collectors are uniquely unforgiving when they perceive a brand as veering out of their lane.

It is only obvious in retrospect when a brand has made the correct decision to introduce a new brand line. Rolex could barely give away the Daytona when they first debuted them.

commented on Pondering The Broader Market: An Equity Analyst's Take on Swiss Watch Exports ·

And now you don't need to!

commented on Pondering The Broader Market: An Equity Analyst's Take on Swiss Watch Exports ·
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commented on Pondering The Broader Market: An Equity Analyst's Take on Swiss Watch Exports ·

Incisively put, especially as to not trying to read through too much on broader demand indicators. It's correlated of course but a soft correlation. Watches are fashion, not barrels of oil, tons of steel or MW usage.

commented on Pondering The Broader Market: An Equity Analyst's Take on Swiss Watch Exports ·

Watch nerds tend to over index their own beliefs onto the broader market.

To spin your concern in a different way, how many normies bought their first watch over the past 3 years and won't feel the need for the newest features for years?

commented on Pondering The Broader Market: An Equity Analyst's Take on Swiss Watch Exports ·

I forgot about that 5 day PR. It's definitely a point in the Oris's favor.

I think my general point is less that the Oris is some terrible value (it isn't) but they competition in the segment is hellish. I'd feel very uncomfortable if my direct competitors (within a couple hundred dollars) were Omega and Tudor.

commented on Pondering The Broader Market: An Equity Analyst's Take on Swiss Watch Exports ·

I don't think you can extrapolate anything broader from Zenith. They make 25k watches a year at a middle luxury price range. Omega makes half a million? Tag makes 400k ish.

It's just not a big impact

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Watches in the Wild (Daylight Savings Blues and Absolutely Shameless Plugs, Volume 58)

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The Morgan Stanley Report: An Equity Analyst's Take

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