Watches can be investments

I agree that watches can be (good) investments. I think the catch here is that if you purely buy them as investment, it could potentially erode the enjoyment from wearing them.

Anything can be an investment.

Not everything can be a good investment.

Sure you might make a profit off certain watches after a few years but you're not going to make a ton of money,even if you keep them in a safe, unworn.

I've never considered watches to be a solid investement unless you already have the money to buy a boatload of high priced watches to begin with.

And if you actually wear the watches any possible profit can easily disappear depending on condition.

It’s s not a debate of if they can be investments, hell people buy CDs as investments. It does not mean they are a good investment. Literally anything one buys can be sold, sometimes at a gain, more often than not at a loss, especially when time and opportunity cost are factored in.

Some watches certainly can go up and if one buys well, some retain better than others, but again the larger point is, just because there are examples of appreciation, it does not mean it is a good investment. Again, not talking about being able to buy a hot Rolex at MSRP and immediately flip, that is easy money for those of that mindset. Sure there is a short term gain, but in enough time, even the hottest watches will lose to a middle of the road index fund.

Buying a watch in the right manner is far more important than worrying about “investment” value. IE, no one should buy most Swiss brands at MSRP EVER. Buying at the actual market price or below is smarter move than trying to time a sale. Again, that is not investing, it is buying wisely. Over paying and selling at a loss is not losing money on an investment, it is the consequence of foolish spending.

As far as cheap watches making a little, I would posit they don’t if you factor in time to acquire and sell, and opportunity cost, nevermind if you have to service them.

Here is what I can guarantee, those 10 watches you sold, had they been invested, would have earned more than you sold for. The same could be said for various hard “Assets.”

I look at the investment side of things as icing on the cake and not the actual meal.

There's also a skill required for it to be successful. Anyone just walking in to it with that mindset will be in for a rude awakening, and I'd rather be wrong and you make money than to be right and you lose everything.

They can be both. I just wouldn’t go into it EXPECTING any used good to appreciate in value. You happen to have great tastes and thus have a collection of in-demand watches.

My globally diversified 60/40 portfolio was up 11.5% in 2023, the S&P500 was up 22% for the year and the Nasdaq-100 was up something like 45%.

It seems to me you have to be pretty lucky to buy watches that gain value, let alone keep pace with what you could get from the stock market.

As an aside, I’d be really curious to know what’s happening to the million Rolexes sold each year. Many are being worn and enjoyed due to conspicuous consumption and wealth-signalling, sure, but I bet some significant fraction are going straight into safety deposit boxes waiting for future (price) appreciation. That’s really sad to me, because it’s the opposite of enjoying the watches. ☹️

Agree to a point. Value retention is a positive, so do see that as a win-win. But value retention isn’t a synonym for investment. Watches are too illiquid, too narrowly traded (despite eBay, Chrono24 and all the rest), and selling costs are too high for me to think any of my watches - from Seiko to Rolex - as investments.

Is it nice to know I could potentially make some money selling my Alpinist? Sure! On a purely percentage basis it’s appreciated the most. But I’ve no plans to sell it or any others in my collection. In fact I’ve never sold a watch. Gifted several to relatives, which is the plan for the entire collection at some point…hopefully in the very distant future 😬

I would describe the buying and selling watches in hope of a financial gain as speculative trading. Investing is something else in my book. But we better keep this quiet, or @Mr.Dee.Bater will join the party. 😂

Definitely this is the point I was trying to make. I feel like we should always hope at least for value retention if we are smart collectors but not count on it

Nah. I’m done with this topic - it’s like trying to explain to my dog why the Many Worlds Hypothesis which springs out of the most slavish adherence to the Copenhagen Interpretation of Quantum Physics is ridiculous.

I look at buying watches like a hedge or a savings account. It is just another place to park your cash. The difference is that I can put them on my wrist and instantly smile. Similarly, we can't really predict which watch brand/model will be popular in the future. If I get to a point where I desperately need cash, I can sell them and use the cash for something else. The thought of buying a watch for the purpose of investment is flawed. The prices we saw for Rolex, AP, and PP in 2021 and 2022 will never come back around. Well, at least not in my lifetime.

Welcome to the club… it’s hard isn’t it.

Watches are not great investments, and maybe just buy them for what they are, shinies.

I wouldn’t put too much stock in those valuations on Chrono24, sold prices on eBay are a better gauge of market value.

You don't even have to be super rich to make money off watches. For example the SKX was only around 150 USD I believe. Now there's a huge demand for them.

Was about to say this 🤝

Buying a watch preowned it already lost so much value there is not much room for it to go down. If people buy used or grey for almost everything besides Rolex, PP, and AP I don’t see how they would not break even worst case senario and best case scenario make a profit time to time

My 1 year old daughter climbed on me and something random came out

OK 👍 what was you meant to say

You're joking?! Just try and sell a watch to a dealer a year after you bought it. That's a thing some people do... don't ask me why but those dealers that trade in very liquid watches only are a thing and they are obviously make good money. So that is a very simple scenario to help one realise how stuff can go sideways. If you are skilled enough to avoid that, good for you, but that is not the norm and in a way the point of my previous comment.

On the more speculative end, I don't think it's unlikely that the watch market will continue to slowly and steadily decline. I wouldn't be surprised if the "Rolex Index" keeps falling for the rest of this decade... as this would likely drag down everything along with it, that's another way to make a loss.

But even if we take an optimistic scenario. The fees can absolutely get you. The Rolex Daytona, a desirable model even back in the 90s, has roughly 10x increase of 30y. That's about 8% per year. So if you hold a watch for one year on average and you managed to identify "the next Daytona" (which is hard to say the least) then you can break even on 8% or less overall transaction, storage & servicing fees. In other words, the more you buy and sell, the more likely the fees will get you (obviously, it's free to have it sit in the drawer). Consequently, someone who enjoys variety will also easily make a loss, especially if they like odd ball watches, because... math.

"we all as collectors should strive for at least profit retention which I feel is not hard if you buy smart"

I don't agree "all" collectors "should" strive for that.

That is a very astute observation!

I once bought a NOS "safe queen" from a doctor buddy of mine who had bought it from the son of another doctor that bought it new in the 70's when he graduated from medical school and then stored it away for decades.

Initially I was reluctant about putting any wear on it but eventually I just thought eff it I'm not that type of collector. While it is no longer NOS I'm a wearer not an investor and it's now serving its intended purpose.

I guess a less alliterative phrase that reflects my views is "your property, your business". I don't think an investment mentality benefits the hobby as a whole but it can survive a limited amount of those types of collectors.

Should we strive for losing the most amount of money then? That doesn’t sound like it would benefit the community

Nothing against anyone investing in watches, be all you can be blah blah. Its not why i do it. I enjoy a nice watch, i enjoy looking at watches i cant afford, i enjoy looking puzzled at some purchases thinking "what were you thinking fella". Its a great hobby. So many different shapes, sizes, models. Something for literally everyone.

Its watches, enjoy no matter why you do it 👌

Like I said I have owned tissot, micro brands, Hamilton, longines, odd ball vintage watches, Tiffany and co, seiko. In my selling of these watches I have broke even. On my omega and Panerai I am about a grand in the green so I sure I’d break even and on my 3 Rolex I am so far in the green I am sure I would always break even.

I haven’t had to service any of my watches yet they all have kept good time and have had no issues besides my quartz night diver I had to replace the whole movment on for 90 bucks. This is just my personal experience, I am a normal dude with a normal job if I have managed to not lose any money so far within this hobby I’m sure others can do it. Someone bought my 99 g shock for 86 and my 5 dollar watch for 328. Someone bought a obscure micro brand watch I got for 400 for 650. My omega and Panerai I got for very good deals so could sell them for sure for what I paid. I can’t be the luckiest collector ever I’m sure if people buy smart they can make money or break even. But again that’s not my main point my main point is to enjoy watches I have just so far managed to not lose any money, this is my own personal experience

Yes, and I can only tell you again. That person who bought your 400$ watch for 650$ may not break even. I am not saying it will happen to you, and I am sure there is someone out there who can do it as well, perhaps even better, but what you are doing takes a certain degree of knowledge and effort. That is not something everybody has, but even if they did not everyone can break even because for someone (buyer, seller or broker/dealer) to make a profit, mathematically, either someone takes a loss, prices have to spiral out of control and increase with every single trade (they won't) or dealers and auction sites have to work for free or at least adapt their margins (they won't). There really is no other way...

You found a 5$ watch and sold it for over 300$, more power to you, but that is an example of a one off price hike for that watch and this takes effort. That watch won't net every person who sells it from now on a 5% profit to offset the eBay fees and other costs. Otherwise dealing in watches would be trivial, which it isn't. Eventually someone is left holding the bag. If you keep it up, it may not be you. But as I keep iterating, the fact that you haven't lost money in the hobby is a testament to your effort with regard to buying and selling, not the watch hobby as such. It can be done, it isn't that I don't believe you but it's YOU, not watches. It's also that I don't approve of what you are doing, by all means if you enjoy the dealing part then keep it going, but that's really what you are describing. A dealing side hustle, not an investment strategy.

A collector isn't/ doesn't become a collector to "benefit the community"

I disagree that "all" "should" "Strive for profit retention."

Some can , if they want, but others "should" do whatever they want and what their goals as collectors are. As long as your enjoying yourself.

Personally, I buy what I like. Not only do I not "strive for profit retention", it isn't even a factor on any level.

You do you. But saying "all" "should" do anything is silly. Unless you are saying "all should do whatever they want and whatever makes them happy"

SARB017 is probably the only watch I own that has appreciated in value - and that was definitely not why I bought it years ago. Back then, green dials were fairly rare, thus the acquisition. Just dumb happenstance it's worth more today.

Same

I’m firmly in the camp that watches, like cars are terrible investments. You’ll eventually get bitten in the behind

Never