BE HONEST!
I came across a fellow collector the other day whom firmly believes something that just seems ridiculous to me and I want your opinion on it. "IF ROLEX COLLAPSED AS A BRAND WOULD IT ALSO COLLAPSE THE ENTIRE WATCH INDUSTRY?" I do believe it would effect prices to a degree but to me it seems absolutely Ludacris to think 1 watch brand would collapse an entire industry! It's like the ultimate in watch snobbery to me. There are far to many brands with 10s if not 100s of millions of collectors with to much loyalty to the game for that to happen. But that's my opinion. What's your's?
I've been collecting for only a short time. I'm 50 but didn't realize just how much I loved watches until I bought my first decent one! An Invicta diver. After that there was no looking back! Now I ha...
I’m not a Rolex guy by any means, but I think if Rolex had got to a point where they failed it would be because of a massive shift in people buying watches at all, so your friend may have a point in that sense. Unless Rolex decided they’d aligned themselves with Nazis or something 😂
I’m not sure what would collapse the entire industry. Got me thinking that one 👍
Rolex does make up a large portion of the watch industry. If they were to collapse, it’ll probably have a ripple effect.
Id like to hear more color on why he thinks that.
Oh I definitely think it would effect pricing! But collectors would have to stop buying watches all together and I just don't see that. It's an addiction for so many of us and it's exploded over the last 10 years and it will continue to grow in popularity. Now if Rolex collapsing caused a price shift so bad the regular collectors could no longer afford a decent watch then we got a big problem. But that's a big IF for me.
I made some comment in one of the many homage/fake threads recently about how I think the death of Rolex would cause a rebirth of innovation and style and whatnot. I eagerly await the death of the king.
I think I equated them with old growth forest blocking the light for new growth.
I think watchmaking/collecting market would become even more niche than it currently is, when you take away the casual ‘aspire to own a Rolex’ customer.
I’m not a Rolex guy by any means, but I think if Rolex had got to a point where they failed it would be because of a massive shift in people buying watches at all, so your friend may have a point in that sense. Unless Rolex decided they’d aligned themselves with Nazis or something 😂
Was going to say exactly this. Given what it would take to crash Rolex, the rest of the industry would already be dead. Rolex is the last domino to fall.
If Rolex collapsed, what catastrophic event would cause it? I think if that were to happen, it would be a signal to the end of the industry rather than the cause.
Obviously watch enthusiasts would still be around, might not be fun to not have the Crown to bash though. This is a topic for the big brains to debate. Rolex boutiques, ads are major tenants in Uber expensive shopping districts globally paying monthly rents and TMI totals that boggle the imagination. If Rolex goes down it would be a huge impact on malls, landlords, city economies that exist on realty taxes to run their programs. I have witnessed first hand how one nicely detailed Rolex operation moving away can impact a small commercial area. Just a personal opinion. I am not deep just a watch geek and not much of a Rolex apologist.
If rolex collapses..the chinese would probably jump with joy. Or the japanese. Whichever you wish to favor, lol
If Rolex collapsed, what catastrophic event would cause it? I think if that were to happen, it would be a signal to the end of the industry rather than the cause.
What if it was from internal issues in Rolex itself. Company issues. I mean if it was caused BECAUSE of watch industry issues then this question is irrelevant anyway. But if it went... Say bankrupt from mismanagement or what have you then what would it's disappearance mean to the industry.
The only thing that would happenis Rolex would get more expensive and even harder to get. So maybe it would business as usual.
Was going to say exactly this. Given what it would take to crash Rolex, the rest of the industry would already be dead. Rolex is the last domino to fall.
What if an earthquake or tsunami or something obliterates their manufacturing center and there's a five to ten year wait till it is replaced? Or am I being silly and production would be in full swing in China by month's end?
It is very superficial to speculate what would happen but given examples of similar collapses in other type of industries I would say that it is a possibility. Maybe not to the extent that the entire watch industry will collapse but the market will definitely take a lot of time to adapt to it. Just thinking of the impact it will have financially to companies and factories building parts and accessories for Rolex and Tudor. There will definitely be a big and unpredictable in terms of density impact to the market and that is enough to make the market unstable. How a potential collapsing of Mercedes would affect the car industry? I don't think anyone can know! Many people in their comments here emphasize mostly on the horology and watchmaking parts but there is the financial part which is always unpredictable and cannot be neglected. How much debt Rolex has accumulated and from which banks before collapsing? How this is going to affect money flaw for other watchmakers and microbrands if credit institutions become afraid of the ripple effect after the collapse of a giant like Rolex? Who can possibly know? So C is the best answer. Whoever is certain for A or B can give us the next lotto numbers 💸
P.S. another thing that I see many people take for granted is that Rolexes are bought by watch enthusiasts. Is an investor called an enthusiast nowadays? Are we that many to sustain this industry?
This whole premise is inane.
If Rolex were to collapse, I am fairly certain the ice caps would finally melt, the oceans would run over, and our machine overlords would finally strike out against humanity. I for one welcome the apocalypse if it means favorable pricing at my local AD... I'd be happy to barter my 4 cans of stewed tomatoes for a no-date submariner. #TheEndIsNigh
100% collapse in my view. Rolex and Patek hype are the biggest drivers of this watch mania that has been happening in the last 10 years. Watch dealers that have popped up in the last 10 years live mainly because of Rolex hype. Watch price correlation, mainly because of Rolex hype. Micro brand mania, because of rising prices of watches caused by the watch hype, because of Rolex hype. Watches becoming an investment, an asset class, just read the Morgan Stanley report, Rolex hype. When an ecosystem gets this big because of a few actors and if one of those dissappear the whole thing crumbles. It would be like the financial crisis of 2008, or a better example the crypto mania of the last few years.
Im of this view as well. The collapse of Rolex will literally shatter whatever “fundamentals” people believed in when it comes to watch values. We will still have watches but pricing structure will collapse and many brands will inevitably go out of business. If Rolex can fail, anything can fail!
I am not a fan of Rolex watches, but they are an important player in the watch industry. And if something were to cause Rolex to go under, then you bet your bananas that it will be affecting everyone else as well.
So do I think if Rolex went under it would collapse the industry? Let's reword that question - if the industry collapses which would be the last brands to fall...answer: Rolex, Casio, Citizen and Seiko.
Im of this view as well. The collapse of Rolex will literally shatter whatever “fundamentals” people believed in when it comes to watch values. We will still have watches but pricing structure will collapse and many brands will inevitably go out of business. If Rolex can fail, anything can fail!
Maybe people don't read history, but Rolex can and will fail. It's not a matter of "if", merely a matter of "when". Other have already given examples of the top dog failing in other industries.
Rolex is on at all -time high now, but that doesn't mean it will last forever. Rolex will fade/collapse eventually, and unless it's caused by people no longer wanting watches overall, the industry will keep chugging along.
Maybe people don't read history, but Rolex can and will fail. It's not a matter of "if", merely a matter of "when". Other have already given examples of the top dog failing in other industries.
Rolex is on at all -time high now, but that doesn't mean it will last forever. Rolex will fade/collapse eventually, and unless it's caused by people no longer wanting watches overall, the industry will keep chugging along.
That is true. I guess my point is not whether Rolex can fail or not, (even great countries will rise and collapse in the long run) but “when” it fails, I feel it will take down a lot of the industry with it. Watches will not disappear for sure, but the industry will look totally different imo, for reasons I mentioned above.
That is true. I guess my point is not whether Rolex can fail or not, (even great countries will rise and collapse in the long run) but “when” it fails, I feel it will take down a lot of the industry with it. Watches will not disappear for sure, but the industry will look totally different imo, for reasons I mentioned above.
I don't believe that would be the case at all. It's not like other brands would see Rolex falling from grace and not jump on their marketing to become the new leader.
Rolex got where it is by marketing, they maintain their position by marketing. When they fail at marketing, someone else will take their place. The "secondary" market follows the actual market, so as Rolex falls and someone else rises the secondary market will adjust. Some people who are too heavy on Rolex will lose, but most will adjust to the new reality.
I don't believe that would be the case at all. It's not like other brands would see Rolex falling from grace and not jump on their marketing to become the new leader.
Rolex got where it is by marketing, they maintain their position by marketing. When they fail at marketing, someone else will take their place. The "secondary" market follows the actual market, so as Rolex falls and someone else rises the secondary market will adjust. Some people who are too heavy on Rolex will lose, but most will adjust to the new reality.
Yeah but Rolex is not like other brands. its literally the only brand where almost every single watch is constantly sold out and a watch brand that many NON watch people buy, not to wear but for “investment” purposes. Rolex has consistently performed very strongly over the last decade or so from a ROI perspective. It’s literally the spearhead for the watch industry and watch investing in general, they are just huge. You are right that other brands will come in their place but the entire industry will be much smaller, the “investment” community will cease to perceive watches as an investment and you will see people who genuinely love watches remain as clients. Which in itself is not a bad thing at all. Greys will always remain, but it will go back to the old days where you buy watches at 40% discount now instead of buying watches at premium as no one will really wanna buy a watch that now depreciates 50% instantly UNLESS they just really love watches. Again this is all a good thing imo but the industry will not be the same at all.
Yeah but Rolex is not like other brands. its literally the only brand where almost every single watch is constantly sold out and a watch brand that many NON watch people buy, not to wear but for “investment” purposes. Rolex has consistently performed very strongly over the last decade or so from a ROI perspective. It’s literally the spearhead for the watch industry and watch investing in general, they are just huge. You are right that other brands will come in their place but the entire industry will be much smaller, the “investment” community will cease to perceive watches as an investment and you will see people who genuinely love watches remain as clients. Which in itself is not a bad thing at all. Greys will always remain, but it will go back to the old days where you buy watches at 40% discount now instead of buying watches at premium as no one will really wanna buy a watch that now depreciates 50% instantly UNLESS they just really love watches. Again this is all a good thing imo but the industry will not be the same at all.
The question was would the industry collapse, and the answer is no.
Would it change? Likely, but even with Rolex at the top it will. Watches aren't investments, they might be a convenient place to park some cash, but they aren't investments.
Watches becoming about status and love of the craft is likely what even the brands themselves want more than the current investment craze.
The question was would the industry collapse, and the answer is no.
Would it change? Likely, but even with Rolex at the top it will. Watches aren't investments, they might be a convenient place to park some cash, but they aren't investments.
Watches becoming about status and love of the craft is likely what even the brands themselves want more than the current investment craze.
Well i think the answer is YES the industry (as we know it in its current form) will collapse.
Watches becoming about craft and love of art? Yes it will remain as it has since hundreds of years ago. Status? difficult to say as celebs want stuff that is highly sought after and unattainable to the masses, with that allure gone, difficult to find status if it can be bought easily at discount. Again the industry will adjust to a new norm.
You are correct in that most modern watches are not investments. But it’s this investment aspect that has propelled the rapid growth of the industry. Without it, watches become a super niche industry catering for those who love horology and the arts, a situation that i think us watch hobbyists will welcome i suppose.
Yeah nah . Silly premise . Sorry but spend a day watching humans and you very soon realise we are the mad ape 🦧. Logic doesn’t operate on planet earth by and large .
Your hypothesis requires that while Rolex is in decline no other brand starts stepping up marketing to take their place. Omega is already a well known luxury watch brand, even among muggles. Tag, Longines, and Tissot are also well known around the world as "fancy" Swiss watches.
I think the watch collecting community spends too much time huffing each other's farts when it comes to certain brands.
Yeah I don’t genuinely believe it will collapse the whole industry, just that it will lose a massive chunk of customers who don’t actually care for watches, but want Rolex as a symbol of something.
I made a post recently asking why brands aren’t stepping up their marketing anyway, and majority of responses were neither here nor there.
Let me see if I've got this straight...
If Rolex collapsed, none of us would be able to buy new Rolexes at retail from ADs. Only at a mark-up from resellers who had already secured theirs?!
What a horrifying and far-fetched fantasy this is! Let's hope and pray it never comes to pass.
If Rolex collapsed, another brand will rise up to take it’s place. The way Rolex are pricing themselves, no loss if they disappear.
The supply will meet consumer demand. As there is a demand for watches other than Rolex, it stands to reason that producers will meet the demand of the consumer.