Column: The End of Casio?

That was very thorough, thank you.

I’m not sure Casio is in quite the dire situation you think they are. They’ve got G Shock and retro models to lean on while they figure out where to go. It seems to me that G Shock watches have remained popular, and they’ve capitalized on the trend of back-catalog darlings quite well. The watch industry as a whole is trying to figure out how to do business in the era of smartwatches, and I think Casio is well placed to survive.

That said, you make some good points. I think Casio is confused as to what they want to be. Or, possibly they’re just trying a little of everything to see what works. I find $600 G Shock watches to be ridiculous, but if they sell, maybe Casio’s answer is to go up-market.

As a final thought, I believe smartwatches will die out before “watch” watches. This isn’t the end of the personal computer trend, and I think they’ll fade away. Apple and others are already exploring other ways to integrate their devices into people’s moment to moment lives. It’s not hard to imagine a future with contact lenses or some other low-profile screen taking the place of your smartwatch/phone. At which point, people will rediscover the joys of a wristwatch. Yes, the days of needing one are gone, but I think the romance and chance for self expression they represent speak to humanity in a way that computers cannot.

If Casio finds some vision and leadership, they’ll be just fine.

Magazine quality writing on WC. Well done.

I don't think of Casio often, they are just not my thing. But, I think that you correctly point out that not all is well in the Japanese economy and that has been the case for decades. If you take all that I have written on the decline and fall of the American watch industry on this site, I think that you will see a through line: the warnings and signs of collapse pre-dated the collapse by a decade or more.

What if Seiko's move upmarket (if it is that) is reactive rather than proactive? What if their quality control problems are not due to indifference, but something more serious?

Once you reach the top, there is nowhere to go but down. Casio reached the top in terms of units sold. Once upon a time Elgin was there. Poljot used to produce 2.5 million watches a year. Omega was the number one luxury brand in living memory (for some of us anyway). Maybe relevance is all Casio can hope for in the short term. I see many more Casio G-Shocks on this site then I do in the wild. To be an enthusiast's watch is almost to cast yourself as a microbrand.

The center of the watch manufacturing world moved to China while no one was paying attention. This may have effected Japanese companies more than even the Swiss. It will be interesting to observe where manufacturing pops up next.

I came in skeptical but the argument is convincing. The odd thing is that, overall, their causes of their (pending) problems are identical to the practices and circumstances of the continuing success of Rolex.

Years ago it was speculated that Timex and Casio would be the last men standing in their markets a few decades from now. Timex seems to have taken to moving (slightly) upmarket a little better, and their reliance on nostalic retro designs is new as opposed to being a decades long tradition.

Lastly, thank you for calling out the elephant in the room about G-Shock styling and design. They seem very timid about altering the formula from the Regan years. That blocky angular oversized design language has no appeal to me and, given their vast catalog, it is baffling that they don't have sleeker offerings.

That said, they do have brand identity. They may be unmatched as a mass manufacturer whose watches can be almost subconsciously be identified by non-enthusiasts at arm's length. However, like most "iconic" designs, this is because the evolution has been glacially slow to non-existent for generations, and risks falling out of favor and deemed quaint, passe, tired at any moment. SKMEI, and possibly others, nibble away at this and Casio seems to have no recourse. They very much risk becoming a generic trademark, which is a pivotal point for a dying brand.

Never expected to dig out my Economics Books when I started reading this lol. However, very well written as I very much remember the 90s Japan Economy.

I don’t think Casio is quite as endangered as one could infer. They really aren’t a watch company but an electronics company so have other products outside of watches. However, very valid points and very interesting.

Cogent and insightful! Although I think there is one minor growth area for the company that wasn't mentioned here...

At least in North America, the G-Shock brand is clearly trying to use its blinged-out designs and nostalgic loyalty to target the brand-conscious streetwear / hypebeast market. And I would consider that to be a truly innovative strategy. I certainly don't understand very much about this crowd, but I understand that they will pay a lot of money for simple things once the brand connection has been made.

In the same way, I begrudgingly respect Invicta's hugest and most tasteless designs: way too testosterone-drenched for me, but lots of people in this world are tasteless, so the company is clearly filling a niche that the competition is afraid of entering. (Plus we all know that at the super high end of the market, multimillion high complication watches end up looking just as bad as Invictas do.)

Of course, you are eminently correct that one small growth sector isn't enough to turn around decline across the board. I think the rise of Skmei as a Casio homage brand (a Casio homage brand!!!) is a much more serious problem for a company that has not moved away from its budget image. But I am always fascinated by the fashion sector (and the interesting way in which watch enthusiasts see themselves as somehow not part of it) so I have to point out the dominant theme that I notice in Casio mall displays in my area.

I grew up wearing Casio's and I own 2 models as an adult. I've looked at the Casioak but I can't justify the price because of the lower hanging fruit that have the same look and feel.

The story sounds similar to that of Harley Davidson. Their customers are starting to die off and the company is slow to innovate and attract a younger customer base.

Japans economic strife was in part caused by things in China (manufacturing) and particularly the US (who invested heavily in east Asia, till things changed… which is why China is following the same path as the US…) but is quite relevant — many Japanese companies focus on the Japanese market, then ship and sell worldwide almost as an afterthought. Sometimes that works out well, sometimes not so much. It does mean at the moment though that often the companies charge more for international sales (more even than the shipping of domestically or nearby manufactured products would logically require even — look at new, official, Orient prices and lack of models vs the ones we have always accessed via third parties such as Amazon. Or even the Ali invasion, that you point out.) in order to help prop up earnings in Yen.

Casio is a computer company, but it is a traditional computer company, not a general tech devices manufacturer. (Of which, from a Japan/International Standpoint, Sony is last man standing — and even they sold their PC division some years ago) Which on the surface is a weakness — as you say, the electronics and computing devices we buy now are not the same as we bought then. And that is why Casio surfs, in some of its business (it is more than what it looks like though, in much the way that Hitatchi, for example, also does banking services) on nostalgia and in some ways selling things that are awfully close to being toys.

But all it has to do, as far as watches are concerned, possibly, is wait.

It is possible that smart watches will be fairly short lived an affair. Certainly in an uncertain world, the finite resources that make many of our modern devices, will be focused back on what might be considered more recyclable and long lasting devices. Smart watches, in their current form, are not that. There are already some signs of a push back to a more technologically simple time in certain demographics. In that sense, it is still very apparent that a large chunk of the world will still take the certainty of digital or quartz over the constant charge cycles and obsolescence of smart devices. In short, the developed West is not The World, and it is more likely — from a certain point of view — that we will revert to more stable and secure tech as this century rolls on.

It seems counterintuitive, but it’s happened so many times before and we don’t even think about it. No more teasmaids — the height of tech sophistication forty years ago. No more HiFi set-ups — smart speakers etc are basically a reversion to radio, albeit ones with more feature, so that’s a fifty fifty shot. 3D TV was a flash in the pan. I can’t remember the last time I saw a Soda Stream advert on TV. No one records anything any more, which again, whilst a technologically steam forwards into internet streaming, is also a step backwards to transmission television in a different form. Tech dies and is reborn, turns out it is as cyclical as fashion — magnetic storage and chips were dead as software storage by the turn of the millennium. Now the optical discs that replaced them are not exactly the storage option of choice. It’s all downloads onto — magnetic storage and mostly chips again. (A trend I suspect will reverse again.)

Casio have their Bluetooth enabled watches, so they can have their cake and eat it. Until the tech settles, and they can decide which way to jump. Better to sell hundreds of millions of cheap to produce, known quantity, digital watches at a lower price to the much more populous ‘developing world’ (and nostalgic or minimalist westerners) than a few million more expensive to produce ‘smart devices’ in a smaller ‘developed world’ market. Especially when the market is already basically won over.

I would be more worried that low end Seiko will do something of a Sega, at least in the west. Manufacturers using their products are doing better things in the wider world than they are, to an extent.

Wow, honestly this took me 3 sittings to read through all this. There are so many factors contributing to the slowdown (downfall may be a little harsh) of Japan and frankly, many southeast Asian countries, both micro/macro and social-economic issues. Conservative society, aging population, work/life balance, geographical disadvantages, and limited natural resources, etc. You can write a masters thesis on any of them. Unfortunately, there are also no east answers. In terms of just Casio, they have their niche and they’ve perfected the affordable rugged watch. They can’t compete with even Japan domestic brands (Seiko, GS, etc), let alone Swiss powerhouses.

Thanks, I'm glad you enjoyed it.

Yes, the chinese watch industry hit the Japanese brands harder than the european, because brands like Casio were playing in the low-cost league. For long time they were used to have no competitor. And for decades if you were looking for a cheap reliable watch, Casio was the only alternative.

I think in the western hemisphere it is still the situation, that you buy a Casio if you want something cheap and digital.

But we are not the main market for cheap watches. It is the emergin markets. India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan...you name it. The majority of the population. For an Indian worker with average 200 Dollar income a month it makes a huge difference if a watch costs 20 Dollars or 10 Dollars.

The problem is also that Casio never managed to get a high brand vallue. Marketing is for many Japanese brand a big weakness.

So the big low price markets are easily switching to chinese watches.

An that's were we find Casio struggeling to find a way out to be considered only as an "affordable watch brand".

And that also true, many Watch brands past their best times sitting on the top. Some of them found their position.

Best example: Junghans, who has been once the biggest watch producer in the World. Then becomming a very cheap watch producer during the 90s. And having a solid come back after 2010.

Also Longines. Less people know that Lognies was once the top producer in case of image and quality and on the same level like Patek Philippe. But found their place again.

But the all these brand had a kind of a plan and a clear strategy, which I miss at Casio even I'm sure they will find their way somehow.

A very interesting article and lots of interesting points raised.

I would only add that , certainly here in the UK, there are many casio wearers amongst the emergency services and the armed forces and I'm sure that is the case worldwide?

Casio has been for a long time the default watch for professionals who want a tough reliable and relatively cheap time piece. I don't see that changing?

Yeah, if I needed a watch, tomorrow, that I trusted, Id go to Argos and get a Casio for £20-£30.

Another very informative article from your "keyboard", thank you Personally I never cared too much about G-Shocks or Baby G-s. However, the nostalgia factor is definitely there. I love their vintage line, and also Edifice, Oceanus, Lineage and Sheen offer some interesting timepieces. Whether they can compete with Chinese Ali Express watches or smart watches on the long run, that's another question. Maybe while they still have the reputation of making cheap yet very reliable, low maintenance, undestroyable watches, there might be hope. As for their marketing strategy, of better the lack of it, I think Shakira has done more for them then they have for themselves 😅

Regardless of one's views on Casio this article was thoroughly presented on a professional level. It's a great read and worthy of the time I spent reading it. I hope to see you post more.

My sole caveat would be the concept of "the reality" which is often merely an extrapolation of one person's experience, or worse yet, one person's opinion. (I'll listen to experience over opinion every chance I get.)

There is often my reality, your reality and the reality as experienced by others.

Rarely in matters as inconsequential as watches is there a universal reality, one shared by all.

I wrote about this elsewhere but I always become intellectually cautious when I experience a presenter using terms like "everybody knows" or "the reality" or "most collectors".

In those cases it feels like the presenter is trying to tell me what my truth is or define what I've experienced because there is often comfort in group think.

Most likely there are those who are currently thrilled with modern day Casio and others who have well thought out concerns.

Please keep posting!

Always great to see the musings of a fellow economist on here. I'm moving about but will comment with my 0.2 cents :-). I already see some great comments already.

Very interesting and well thought out. I won't disagree some of those points at all. However, in 2021 they sold 8 million watches. That's more than the luxury market by far. I think the little FW91 is still the most sold watch in the world worn by people all over the globe.

My Casio watches sit proudly beside Rolex and are worn more often than any other. They are my after work watch, my weekender, my rugged housework. I just bought my kid a $250 casio and it was worth every penny.

I mean, do most of you have at least one casio in your collections?

Hi mehmood,

first of all thank you for reading and your comment.

I hundert percent agree. Up to 50$ or even up to 100$ there is no one who can compete to casio and I really appreciate on Casio that he gives allmost everybody who loves watches the oportunity to own at least one or even build up a collection.

But my article is about the upricing of some watches into direction beyond any healthy mind. As I mentioned for the CasiOak up to 450% price increase.

But also about management struggles who reveales in their revenues that there is something running not well and I worry about if Casio can stand 10 more years the chinese competition and if we can enjoy our affordable watches in future.

Have a great sunday.

Thank you for reading and taking your time. I hope you still enjoyed it after digesting :-)

:)

:)

You're right and when you're right, your right.

I have been following watches since the '80s and was a Casio fan for a long time. Not anymore, and the reason is lack of innovation, just as the poster says. Casio has not brought out anything really new for a long time, instead pushing the same old stuff in different colors in the form of various collaborations. I recently bought a Garmin Instinct Solar for €200 and titled my Amazon review "The outdoor sports watch Casio should have made". Shame on Casio for not filling that niche, which the were perfectly positioned to do. They should be making tough smartwatches by now, with feature sets rivaling the Apple but at lower prices, along with their more traditional models. G-shock may be popular still, but the tech is 40 years old, and even firefighters won't be buying it forever, just because it used to be the only tough watch around. I also wouldn't count on the urban trendy youth to stick with the brand when the next fad comes along, either. Unfortunately I agree with the poster that unless they start to innovate, Casio watches will be gone in 10 years.

MIP watch have it's own debilitating drawbacks. Unless you're have a powerful power source you will be limited to very low refresh rate.

Yeah Casio owns the first responders and military market around the world. The g-shock and pro-trek lines are targeting those buyers.

Personally smartwatch aren't suitable for outdoors activities, especially those that can last for days out of yhe grid. On Casio forms a lot of early adapter to fitness smart watch like Garmin Instinct move toward Casio.

Smartwatch like Garmin Instinct are disposable watch. Once the battery died it goes to the trash can. You can't replace the battery. It's integrated into the board. So depending how you drain your battery it might last a couple of years or half a decade. Sooner or later it going to go into the trash can. It's unavoidable.

I don't recommend buying use smartwatch.

Didn’t know that thanks 🙏

Very nice article and analysis towards Casio. But let’s not discount the fact that they are actually trying to innovate here. With the new release of their g-squad series, they are attempting to compete with Garmin / Apple / Samsung on the sports / health watch category. Although yes, it may not be the best version that they can offer right now but pretty sure after a few iterations they might perfect it and possible have some market share over this category of watches.

Very well done article. I’m a Casio fan boy since 12 - and I completely agree they have lost their direction a bit. Let’s see what the future holds. I still have my Casio collection and will never part with them but I certainly don’t seek Casio out as much anymore as it’s confusing and over saturated with offerings

You can see this with the stop watch function. Most don't have 1/100 second showing. If they do it will be a few seconds.

For example: 2:05. It went 1/100 for 5 seconds than dropped to low refresh rate.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.watchuseek.com%2F&source_ve_path=MTY0OTksMjg2NjQsMTY0NTAz&feature=emb_share&v=5Bij2Q0ENkw

Very detailed analysis, and enjoyable read. WatchCrunch should be offering you a position! Luckily Casio, unlike other companies, has a long way to fall, deep pockets, and a huge domestic market. But they wont escape the process of corporate aging. I think they may go the way of Panasonic, Mitsubishi, IBM, HP, or Nokia, mature companies that after massive restructuring, are still in the game. I cant believe they would wind up like a RIM/Blackberry, Inc. ('Memba dem?)😂

This is an intriguing article. However, in my opinion, as customers, we have no control over this situation. The responsibility lies with the executives. If we don't like something, we can simply choose not to purchase it. Please don't misunderstand me; you are absolutely correct in your assessment, but unfortunately, we may be powerless to bring about any changes.