Discussion: Is Grand Seiko Bad Value??
Kind of a recent thought here:
Background: My first serious watch was a snowflake, and I always love what the brand does for horology and of course for inventing the spring drive. This discussion is just to question my own belief and reflect on the current state of the brand as well as how it evolved in the recent past. This thought is also coming from the price hikes that GS has implemented across their lineup and especially with their newer offerings, which I feel is somewhat unjustified given the JPY exchange rate against USD. (CHF has been a strong currency alongside USD, but JPY has decreaesd, given GS even more profit when increasing prices in USD. At current exchange rates, the snowflake is 737k JPY in japan, which is 5.5k USD, 700 dollars less than the US market price. This is not the case for some other brands where you tend to see prices adjusted with exchange rates)
We are only talking about dress watches here, because that is what Grand Seiko are known for and comprises the majority of their catalogue.
And here is my argument:
I think it's not a stretch to split the watch community into two camps: the ones that want the best watch for the price point and care less about resale value, and the ones who do care about resale value:
If you look on the side where resale value is important, Grand Seiko has not been able to improve this over the years, and for this group of people within the similar price ranges Rolex is always going to come out on top.
I see myself belonging in the other camp, but even within this group, I am having internal struggles to justify spending 8k+ on a newer GS model. With their newer releases, GS is playing in JLC and Glashuette Original territory, and within their lineup you can buy in my opinion more special and stunning pieces for around the same price, especially when it comes to Glashuette Original.
I was and still am a GS fan, but I am finding that harder and harder to justify with the price increases.
What do you think? Thanks in advance!
I am a relatively newer collector that is looking to learn more from other collectors and build connections!
I am starting to look at brands that hold more of their value, not necessarily go up past MSRP as Rolex will, but something that I can buy at a decent price used, and it will hold that price, or close to it, for a while. I think Grand Seiko may fall into that camp, but I don't think they hold their value on the used market like a Swiss brand does, like the ones you mentioned, or even like Omega and Tudor. Again, I'm talking about buying used and holding that value, not holding value from MSRP or going up from there. There are only a few brands, like RM, AP, Patek, and Rolex, that will do that.
Man, what is it with today? 2 threads crapping on GS! Is GS bad value???
Ha! Okay, all joking aside, I do think that you bring up an incredibly valid point.
Is it bad value? The only "objective" answer is the one that the market comes back with. If GS revenue and earnings continue to meet / surpass Seiko's expectations, then the answer is "no." If they don't meeting earnings expectations, then the answer is "yes."
Me personally? I would say, "F*ck GS for raising prices like this! I'm not supporting those a** nuggets anymore!"
Yet, apparently, my words mean nothing, as I've recently purchased all of the following at incredibly bad value prices...
Wow, I need to go to SD to comfort @HotWatchChick69.
My quick take. I love GS and at MSRP they are great watches. That said, I would NEVER buy one at MSRP. Very easy to get great deals on them, especially if you are willing to go used.
Man, what is it with today? 2 threads crapping on GS! Is GS bad value???
Ha! Okay, all joking aside, I do think that you bring up an incredibly valid point.
Is it bad value? The only "objective" answer is the one that the market comes back with. If GS revenue and earnings continue to meet / surpass Seiko's expectations, then the answer is "no." If they don't meeting earnings expectations, then the answer is "yes."
Me personally? I would say, "F*ck GS for raising prices like this! I'm not supporting those a** nuggets anymore!"
Yet, apparently, my words mean nothing, as I've recently purchased all of the following at incredibly bad value prices...
Thanks for the great comment and perspective here! my post is in no way to discredit the watches themselves or the buyers, I just kind of feel a little sad that GS has changed like you mentioned and is now less attractive to me as a brand. It's kind of a pickle for a brand to be in to be honest, if you don't raise prices you are viewed as less luxurious than Rolex/Omega because a large group of the broad consumers based their view of prestige purely on price, and if you do you lose some of that enthusiast following.
Its not unlike Oneplus in the phone world.......... Gosh this is a scary thought, is GS the Oneplus of the watch world???? 😮
Man, what is it with today? 2 threads crapping on GS! Is GS bad value???
Ha! Okay, all joking aside, I do think that you bring up an incredibly valid point.
Is it bad value? The only "objective" answer is the one that the market comes back with. If GS revenue and earnings continue to meet / surpass Seiko's expectations, then the answer is "no." If they don't meeting earnings expectations, then the answer is "yes."
Me personally? I would say, "F*ck GS for raising prices like this! I'm not supporting those a** nuggets anymore!"
Yet, apparently, my words mean nothing, as I've recently purchased all of the following at incredibly bad value prices...
what was the other thread btw?
Wow, I need to go to SD to comfort @HotWatchChick69.
My quick take. I love GS and at MSRP they are great watches. That said, I would NEVER buy one at MSRP. Very easy to get great deals on them, especially if you are willing to go used.
Thanks!
Thanks for the great comment and perspective here! my post is in no way to discredit the watches themselves or the buyers, I just kind of feel a little sad that GS has changed like you mentioned and is now less attractive to me as a brand. It's kind of a pickle for a brand to be in to be honest, if you don't raise prices you are viewed as less luxurious than Rolex/Omega because a large group of the broad consumers based their view of prestige purely on price, and if you do you lose some of that enthusiast following.
Its not unlike Oneplus in the phone world.......... Gosh this is a scary thought, is GS the Oneplus of the watch world???? 😮
meanwhile Rolex is the Apple of the watch world, ubiquitous, treats their customer like S*it, and sells products that are very popular, highly-priced, and not at the forefront of technology 😂 but they are successful
Grand Seiko was definitely a better value before the price hikes. I used to be a huge Omega fanboy. I did, however, sell my Omega Moonwatch to finance a GS SBGA211 (aka Snowflake) and a Doxa 600T. As I was buying the other two pieces, I knew that I'd never get that money back like I did with my Moonwatch. If the resale value is a part of the equation, I definitely don't think GS is anywhere near Omega, yet. I won't even mention Rolex as it would be offensive to Rolex.
Having said that, I love my GS, and I plan on purchasing another one soon. I just don't plan to buy from a GS AD in the US and pay full price. I am hoping to get one used or go through a Japanese dealer if I can sort out the warranty questions. I would have NEVER paid $6200 for my Snowflake, and I don't plan on paying the US retail prices for my future Grand Seikos either.
Grand Seiko was definitely a better value before the price hikes. I used to be a huge Omega fanboy. I did, however, sell my Omega Moonwatch to finance a GS SBGA211 (aka Snowflake) and a Doxa 600T. As I was buying the other two pieces, I knew that I'd never get that money back like I did with my Moonwatch. If the resale value is a part of the equation, I definitely don't think GS is anywhere near Omega, yet. I won't even mention Rolex as it would be offensive to Rolex.
Having said that, I love my GS, and I plan on purchasing another one soon. I just don't plan to buy from a GS AD in the US and pay full price. I am hoping to get one used or go through a Japanese dealer if I can sort out the warranty questions. I would have NEVER paid $6200 for my Snowflake, and I don't plan on paying the US retail prices for my future Grand Seikos either.
What are you planning on getting???
Something I think is being missed- in the last 5 months the USD, CAD and YEN values have all gone crazy.
YEN and CAD have massively tanked in value, USD has soared in value. I'm guessing something to do with one of, or all of; Russian invasion of Ukraine, supply chain fails, and nefarious China doing crazy stuff, etc...)
Anyway, it kills both my and Japan's buying power (already terrible when combined with 12% sales taxes and 20% import duty and brokerage costs) and makes it way cheap for US citizens to buy from Canada or Japan.
In Japan, dealers still have to weight prices to their local market, not try to match the surging USD. I think it's playing havoc with watch manufacturers, and havoc with not US buyer me. Buying raw materials would also suddenly be more difficult for GS. I think prices are likely set a year at a time.
https://g.co/finance/USD-JPY?window=5Y
All that said, there is merit in what you say as a quick peruse on Chrono24 puts a 1 year old JLC master thin date at about 10.5 CAD for a lightly used example (this is about the cheapest).
That gets me a top end GS, and in my case, I'll go with the high end GS over the basic JLC, but I very much see why many wouldn't.
What are you planning on getting???
SBGE255. I'm a traveling consultant, so I figure I can justify a GMT. =) Although, it really isn't that difficult to subtract 1 or 7 or whatever hours from wherever I am, but we don't let the "practicality" get in the way of purchasing a watch.
If rolex came out with a spring drive it would cost minimum 10k for a steel model .
U have great choices , I would focus on go and gs. The amount of in house manufacturin and hand work is worth it .
If u look at swiss brands , omega for example in the past 5 years it increased prices few times while gs snowflake has been 5.5k . I have spoken with gs reps and I like their philosophy. They don't belive in constant price increases and they want things to be fair . They will increase from January 1 tho which isn't bad in 5 years . Regarding them increasing prices on new models, I agree that it's going high but then again u r paying for the craftsmanship , hand work, the brand of cos ( since they won gran prix with that tourbillon it has more and more exposure) . I would never look at a watch as an investment in money sense ( resale value etc) . It's for u to enjoy and maybe pass down if u can take care of it well. It was never an investment before only because of covid and young crypto boom few brands and models went bananas . Investment is better with buying gold haha.
Furthermore regarding GS 'll give u one word -"austerity ". My boss loves gs because most ppl think it's a seiko for $200. Its for ppl who dont need to prove anything to others ( in a sense of wearing a 45mm hublot or sky dweller) . They r strict and boring because 1) it's done for their japanese market to begin with , 2) that's their formula and design language . Ppl who buy those get them for that under radar look and high beat, spring drive movement and most importantly maximum in house Japanes manufacturin and hand work that goes into making the watch ( Swiss only 50%-60 needs to be made in Switzerland) Did u see their gold models , they r way too overpriced even if u compare it to the holy trinity . Gs doesn't care , those models are made for Japan because locally they r consumed like nowhere else . In the west 45k for a gold case 3 hander is madness . Ppl won't buy it because it's not rational ( steel 8k and gold 5.5 times more expensive). Breguet charges 22, patek and vacheron 30 ...
But then again to each is own. I just decided this year that I'll be going mostly for German and japanese watches because I get more for what I pay . Swiss cutting many corners and from January 1 increasing prices even more) ( except jlc, they r worth it.
SBGE255. I'm a traveling consultant, so I figure I can justify a GMT. =) Although, it really isn't that difficult to subtract 1 or 7 or whatever hours from wherever I am, but we don't let the "practicality" get in the way of purchasing a watch.
Awesome! They're available new for ~$4,300 from Japanese AD's on Chrono24!
It's a shitty situation but just remember that Grand Seiko has to recoup the costs for producing, and R&D of their movements, especially the Spring Drive and those super accurate quartzes.
There's a price to pay when you leave Seiko's long arms. They can't run to daddy for pocket money anymore.
But then again gentlemen, if vacheron can slap a cartier movement with that tiny date dial and just sell it for 14k or omega deville for 6k , that grand seiko omiwatari looking hell of a good to me . Not only the dial but that caseback too )
Awesome! They're available new for ~$4,300 from Japanese AD's on Chrono24!
I'm wondering when/if the Japanese dealers will move things to align better with US prices. The topsy turvy currency changes have only been for a few months now and I keep worrying they will decide to f-it and match USD prices. If they see enough demand (which the US market represents) then I expect prices will ascend. 😥
Man, I feel this comment as a fellow Canadian. I recently bought an $650 USD watch paid $45 USD for shipping and got a bill for $250 CAD for duties, taxes and FedEx's infamous "duties paperwork" fee. I basically paid for the cost of a second watch just to have it enter the country! The lesson is this: make friends who live near the US/CAN border, ship your watches to them and wear them home haha.
Buying a GS outside the country, even from a Japanese dealer, would mean a heavy fee for Canadians. So we're stuck with ADs or private sellers for most practical purposes. Compare that with the availability of brands like Omega, even Rolex, and the deals that can be had there, it makes GS hard to find here in Canada. I can say I have never seen one outside a GS boutique myself. Maybe you've seen some in the wild @Fieldwalker since you're on the west coast?
Also how did someone beat @HotWatchChick69 to the first comment? You cought them sleeping with this thread.
100% my brother. It's so f-ed up.
The cost to buy a GS winter at a dealer is $8600 CAD, and add the tax, for $9700.
Buy a new one from Japan for $6500 CAD woohoo! oh wait...still must pay $2600 for tax/duty/handling/ "paperwork" and you are over $9000 CAD, with a lot of bother added to it and no local dealer if you want some support. And, at either AD price or import price, you can't re-sell for anything close to market price if you change your mind.
As collectors we Canucks get not gently raped by taxman and the courier companies. I've come to accept I can only acquire watches when I travel if I don't want to loose money on them.
Now Ernest I know you're a smart guy - I mean anyone who can appreciate the superb workmanship in Parmigiani watches is a smart person in my book.
If you think VC movements don't have a Geneva Seal, then I think you may have failed to do your research properly.
For example, I will quote Jack Forster from HODINKEE on his review of VC's 222...
“The reissue uses the caliber 2455 – this is an in-house, self-winding movement which Vacheron first introduced in 2007. At 15 years old, it's a well-established member of the Vacheron movement stable, and I think it's a very attractive caliber – 26.20mm in diameter, with a 40-hour power reserve, and with the Geneva Seal.”
Just because VC is part of Richemont don't think that equals them using the shitty movements they put in Panerai watches. Please do your homework. Not only does VC have its own in-house movements, they also have a whole specialized team of watchmakers that restore vintage VC references making the replacements parts by hand to restore them. Their archive is one of the best in the world.
The best of the best in terms of watchmaking includes Patek, VC and Parmigiani. We can argue about all of the others, but those three are indisputably the sine qua non of watchmaking.
I also have a deep respect for Cartier as @Porthole states they produced the first men's wristwatch and used superb JLC movements for many years. Now they have an incredible manufacture that produces state of the art watches. Agreed - I don't have any in my collection, but that is more due to my own personal tastes in design not because of any failing in manufacture.
Ohh good to hear from u. How u been ?
Haha I am very well aware of that . However in the case of vc fifty-six 4600e they don't have the Geneva seal . U can check)
Merry Christmas and happy upcoming new year)
Ohh good to hear from u. How u been ?
Haha I am very well aware of that . However in the case of vc fifty-six 4600e they don't have the Geneva seal . U can check)
Merry Christmas and happy upcoming new year)
Yes @Porthole emailed me about my oversight.
You are absolutely correct.
The entry-level FiftySix is the only one that uses the Cartier 1904 movement which does not have the Geneva Seal. The other two use VC in-house movements which do have the Geneva Seal.
Sorry about that.
My bad for not carefully reading the back and forth of the messages.
Man, what is it with today? 2 threads crapping on GS! Is GS bad value???
Ha! Okay, all joking aside, I do think that you bring up an incredibly valid point.
Is it bad value? The only "objective" answer is the one that the market comes back with. If GS revenue and earnings continue to meet / surpass Seiko's expectations, then the answer is "no." If they don't meeting earnings expectations, then the answer is "yes."
Me personally? I would say, "F*ck GS for raising prices like this! I'm not supporting those a** nuggets anymore!"
Yet, apparently, my words mean nothing, as I've recently purchased all of the following at incredibly bad value prices...
Am I an unapologetic GS fanboy? Yes... unequivocally I am...yet I maintain
If you got this gem of a release and still have all bodily organs... you did NOT overpay
Its not just you - your approach is actually really common. However to some of us its completely soulless and destructive of the very concept of luxury - what you just described is how I'd buy a vacuum cleaner not a luxury watch.
In your example I would only ever buy watch A - watch B would always be a consolation prize.
I'm wondering when/if the Japanese dealers will move things to align better with US prices. The topsy turvy currency changes have only been for a few months now and I keep worrying they will decide to f-it and match USD prices. If they see enough demand (which the US market represents) then I expect prices will ascend. 😥
Ha! I doubt they will. I mean, as a company, you have no control over foreign exchange, and "The Street" knows it. So, typically, when you report earnings, you report them in "constant currency" terms - that way, foreign exchange fluctuations don't impact your P&L. However, in reality, companies always use foreign exchange to their own advantage in reporting:
Right now, it benefits Japanese dealers to have the yen weak compared to the dollar. They get judged based on how much money they make in yen. So, if the yen is weak relative to the dollar, then these ADs sell a lot more watches to Americans, and they get to pretend that they sold so many watches and made so much money, "all due to my super-human genius!"
Am I an unapologetic GS fanboy? Yes... unequivocally I am...yet I maintain
If you got this gem of a release and still have all bodily organs... you did NOT overpay
Ha! I too am obviously an unapologetic GS fanboy. Yet, even so, I'm still somewhat ambivalent about some of my recent purchases. I mean, I love them, but... weirdly, I'm not sure I love them enough!
That is, they're amazing watches, but... I don't know. Somehow maybe they're even a little too blingy even for me.
The SBGK015 is the poster-boy for "too blingy." I mean, it's an outright dress watch. And, well, I've always lied to myself and told myself that this is the type of person that I really am deep down inside...
But, the reality is that I'm this person...
And my blingy, delicate, Tiffany Blue SBGK015 hammers home the point that I am a soft, little Otaku!
Agreed 100%!
They've done this with their dials...
But, honestly, half the time I think I'd prefer the simple GS champagne dial to any of the "this dial is inspired by the color of the guano of the migrating Japanese yellow-breasted bunga bird in the late snowy winter in the mountains of Shinzuki" or whatever other nonsense the GS marketing department comes up with.
If you are a watch collector who flips watches, it is unless you go for the snowflakes. If you are a watch enthusiast who loves watches, you wear what you want to wear and to me this is the best part of it all.
Saw this title and I was baited in thinking, "OK, now somebody is just trolling!" LOL. But many many good points, and yeah, the current releases are certainly in a whole new price range compared to the Four Seasons or earlier releases. What many might have viewed as accessible previously probably have to be viewed now as grail or inaccessible. Unless you are Kevin O'Leary and think it is difficult to find watches under $12K! (See latest TeddyB/KevinOL shopping spree LOL).
Funny.
"Everyone" hates Rolex for retaining value.
"Everyone" hating on other brands for not holding value
Can't win this - unless people just start buying watches they love.
Buy Rolex if you love the watch.Buy Grand Seiko if you love the watch. Buy (insert brand here) if you love the watch.
I own watches from $50 to $30k. With all of them the value for me is in the enjoyment. Yes, my GMT 2 will increase in monetary value more than my LACO pro, but to me they are equally valuable. I just ordered my first GS GMT with a springdrive. Yes, it's expensive and will probably not increase in monetary value. (I do have a feeling this will change as more people discover GS.)
The knowledge of what is in it, a springdrive movement, far outweighs the money I may lose if I sell it.
But then, I don't buy watches to sell them. That's why I probably have to many 😬
GS and a few other brands have benefited over the last few years as people who would have bought a Rolex and just couldn’t because of the stupid games being played… started looking elsewhere. But let’s be honest… GS and GO for example still represent incredible value vs Swiss brands.
But I think GS will shoot themselves in the foot if they raise prices anymore at the moment. The market won’t support them if most people can get a Rolex at msrp with very little wait as it is right now…
I for one won’t be buying another Rolex anytime soon and as the market worsens you’ll be able to get even bigger discounts off GS etc
Provided I can still get 0% finance to support silly purchases it’s all good 😂🙌
I never really understood Grand Seiko's value proposition so I'm biased here. For the money I need to get a Grand Seiko, I could get a JLC, a GO, maybe even a vintage trinity (?), if I'm lucky. So I really don't get it. But again, I'm biased.