Bad time to get into this hobby

I was watching a youtube video where someone mentioned you could get a new rolex explorer 2 for $5k 5 years ago. No waiting. No games.

I wasn't quite in a position to pay that much for a watch at that time. But seeing as that same watch (and I mean that exact watch from 5 years ago) would cost twice that much now, I wonder if this is actually the worst time to get into the watch hobby.

Prices are far outpacing inflation. It is getting harder and harder to get some watches.

Is this hobby getting worse?

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Not worse just more expensive sometimes. We have seen a rise in some excellent microbrands over the last few years so if your interest is horological then is still great. If you want a Rolex collection then you need deeper pockets thats for sure. But as you said before when they were a lower cost they were still unobtainable because dropping large piles of cash on an outdated mechanism is inheritedly flawed to begin with.

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I kind of feel similar. I got into watches about 6 years ago, which I guess was a good time, but didn't have much money to spend on watches as I was just out of college and focusing on paying those loans. Now that I have more money to spend, many of the watches I wanted back then have move up in price significantly. However, microbrands are the real game changer over the last 6 or so years. It's amazing what they are able to pull off for the money. So it's probably a bad time to get into watches if you want one of those brands like Rolex or even Seiko that are moving up in price, but it's also a better time than ever if you're willing to look past the brand and go micro. Heck, even on the fly micro adjustable clasps are becoming the norm on sub $1k sports watches. That was unthinkable 6 years ago. $500 today gets you a much better watch than $500 got you 6 years ago imo.

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No, I don't think it is a bad time to get into watches. Of course some watches were about half the price 5 years ago, yes. But it is the minority of watches. If you must have exactly those then that's a "you-problem", not necessarily a "watch-problem" 😉

The watch in question wasn't well loved some years ago. Then the internet hyped it up. Now it is well loved and expensive. There are many unloved watches. You can get unworn Omega Constellations in the Manhattan design for extremely little money relative to comparable watches, just as an example. The same is true for what is probably my favourite watch of all time, the Ebel 1911. Getting into things before they are cool, or before they become cool again, requires effort and luck. Effort because there isn't content all over the internet about it. Luck because if you don't happen to like it then that's too bad.

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It does sound like buying a Rolex is very difficult these days. But that strikes me as a pretty limited definition of the "watch hobby," honestly. The quality levels and range of choices available in the <$2K segment have never been better.

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Based on Rolex alone, yes. Rolex, being a Veblen Good, is a bad example of how the market is going. This is not to detract from Rolex, they have done an unbelievable job of marketing and have created every business' dream of being so in demand they can dictate price almost at will. Unfortunately, they haven't, at least not until very recently, increased the quality, which means that based on the overall quality of their product, they are way, way overpriced, but they can get away with that and in spite of this, there is one I'd love to own if I had that kind of money.

For those of us who don't even aspire to those lofty regions, it's a great time to be in this hobby. At least weekly, I learn of another new startup, usually with a new look, making that many more possibilities and even more variations to choose. Further, the technology, both in terms of the construction and the materials used, is rapidly changing, giving us better quality watches at decreasing prices. One good example is San Martin, a Chinese manufacturer mostly of homages but now making some of their own designs, whose quality is ever-increasing to the point that some believe is at least part of the reason Seiko decided to move upmarket across the board. So Seiko costs more, but San Martin and others, particularly Chinese, are giving much more quality for much less money. Another example is the Tissot PRX which, according to many experts, is a tremendous bargain quality-wise at that price and have stated it could have been double and still been a reasonable price. I believe this is because of new manufacturing methods that make it possible to build that quality for that kind of money.

I don't think there's ever been a better time to collect watches. You can build an amazing collection of mechanical pieces for $300 or less each. I don't think I could have said that 20 years ago.

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I dont think so… tons of Great Microbrands out there that can outperform certain name brands … but if your hobby is only concentrated on one brand then … yeah … but for a watch collector!! Never been better!!

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I would argue that it all depends upon what you're looking for.

  • If you were looking to purchase certain watches, and you will only be happy with those particular watches, then yes

  • If you are happy with the explosion of choice, then no

Comic books used to cost $0.25 each. Of course, back then, Marvel would publish something like 10 titles each month, and the writing was juvenile, and the stories were cliched. Nowadays, Marvel publishes something like 80+ titles per month, and some the best, most creative minds are hard at work on these books! Each comic costs $3.95 or $4.95 today. I would argue that today is the best time of all to be into comics!

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I like your username. As a fellow Kim and kimchi lover, I would say your timing is not that bad. As an economist, I can say that prices are cooling from the pandemic highs. Yes, still higher than 5 yrs ago but the massive froth is blowing away. Even Rolex secondary market prices are down to 2 yr low. I do see that the Exp II 14670 is $6,500.

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Just like everything else in life. Nowadays, it will cost you an arm and a leg to buy a house compared to the amount your parents go theirs. Cost of living rises, economies go bullish or bearish and the world goes on. There is no perfect time just do it at the time you are financially able to and enjoy the ride.

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Buy a Casio or 6! 😂

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Some luxury brands have gone off the charts with their pricing in recent years. But there are new "enthusiast" brands that offer excellent value in the $200-$2000 range nowadays.

You're only really losing if you're trying to impress muggles by wearing one of the three brands they know. And even then, they'll think your Rolex is worth $500 because they don't suspect how surreal this hobby is and they don't care.

Tell anyone outside you spent more than $100 on a piece of metal that tells inaccurate time and stops after 2 days in a drawer and they'll watch you funny.

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Is there ever a good time? I suppose I could do illicit drugs. That would get me in slightly less trouble with my wife.

Seriously though, yes. Premium luxury brands are at exorbitant levels but now, up and coming microbrands offer luxury at more affordable prices. It makes me hopeful

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I know it’s mad expensive right now. And I myself would love to someday own one. But for now I’m enjoying the affordable watches. So so many out there and I’m not gonna lose my hopes and dreams to own a Rolex? I’m not gonna lose sleep over it. Just stay busy enjoy the hobby and perhaps when you least expect it you have that opportunity. Remember what goes up for sure it must come down.

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Mr.Dee.Bater

I would argue that it all depends upon what you're looking for.

  • If you were looking to purchase certain watches, and you will only be happy with those particular watches, then yes

  • If you are happy with the explosion of choice, then no

Comic books used to cost $0.25 each. Of course, back then, Marvel would publish something like 10 titles each month, and the writing was juvenile, and the stories were cliched. Nowadays, Marvel publishes something like 80+ titles per month, and some the best, most creative minds are hard at work on these books! Each comic costs $3.95 or $4.95 today. I would argue that today is the best time of all to be into comics!

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Another collecting bug I gave my son.

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To not go on a complete rant. There's many brands ready to take your hard earned money no fabricated waiting list, no grey market mark ups, no settling for an older model or used models.

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I’m in the same boat and ask the same questions every time I buy another watch.

The price for new watches is set buy the demand. Once that price is set the price rarely comes down. Why should they? People are still buying them even though the prices keep increasing. If you want in, you should get in.

It sounds like the question this.

What do you want to do? If you want a particular watch and you can afford it, buy it. There’s no reason to justify it. If you want a particular watch and it’s over your comfort level. Wait and save for it or find a different one that fit into your budget. There’s still no reason to justify the purchase. Lastly if the jumping off point is to high, wait and see what happens. You don’t have to justify it.

History shows us that the price for new watches will go up. That why I’m in.

I’m only talking about new watch prices. Pre-owned or gray market is whole different game.

Good luck.

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ckim4watches

I like your username. As a fellow Kim and kimchi lover, I would say your timing is not that bad. As an economist, I can say that prices are cooling from the pandemic highs. Yes, still higher than 5 yrs ago but the massive froth is blowing away. Even Rolex secondary market prices are down to 2 yr low. I do see that the Exp II 14670 is $6,500.

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Hello fellow Kim! I am unfamiliar with that reference number. And I get confused when I see those because I can't find an explorer 2 for that price.

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Beautiful watch, are there any comparable editions from other respectable brands?

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I missed the whole SKX thing, then the SARB thing so I guess I feel you.

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Now is a good time to be a collector imo.

I have been collecting less than two years. I missed out on the SKX at reasonable prices, likewise the Sarb.

But there is a plethora of microbrands offering tremendous watches that are relatively affordable?

Likewise vostok, Orient and of course Casio and Timex.

Moving up Christopher Ward go from strength to strength with new models that give tremendous value for what you are getting.

Further up still Tudor, within their peer group, are unbeatable if you have the funds. I hope their prices don't rise like Omegas have!

At the limit of my spending I managed to buy a datejust 41 from a Rolex AD at retail after only a five week wait so that I hope is an encouraging sign that the recent AD madness is waining?

So I reckon if you want to jump in to collecting jump right in now!

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Now it's a super good time to be a collector.

Inflated Rolex prices and the unavailability of Rolex creates a gap in a market for new awesome watchmakers. Micros are popping, vintage is gaining traction, and the amount of accessories like straps and bracelets is bigger than ever. You can get a strap for 5$, 25$ and 250$. Modders are, well, modding. Even window shopping is better than ever, because of the variety. Internet made information exchange fast and now you can see some amazing watches in WC WRUW section, while being in WC, working on "number 2" section.

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salgud

Based on Rolex alone, yes. Rolex, being a Veblen Good, is a bad example of how the market is going. This is not to detract from Rolex, they have done an unbelievable job of marketing and have created every business' dream of being so in demand they can dictate price almost at will. Unfortunately, they haven't, at least not until very recently, increased the quality, which means that based on the overall quality of their product, they are way, way overpriced, but they can get away with that and in spite of this, there is one I'd love to own if I had that kind of money.

For those of us who don't even aspire to those lofty regions, it's a great time to be in this hobby. At least weekly, I learn of another new startup, usually with a new look, making that many more possibilities and even more variations to choose. Further, the technology, both in terms of the construction and the materials used, is rapidly changing, giving us better quality watches at decreasing prices. One good example is San Martin, a Chinese manufacturer mostly of homages but now making some of their own designs, whose quality is ever-increasing to the point that some believe is at least part of the reason Seiko decided to move upmarket across the board. So Seiko costs more, but San Martin and others, particularly Chinese, are giving much more quality for much less money. Another example is the Tissot PRX which, according to many experts, is a tremendous bargain quality-wise at that price and have stated it could have been double and still been a reasonable price. I believe this is because of new manufacturing methods that make it possible to build that quality for that kind of money.

I don't think there's ever been a better time to collect watches. You can build an amazing collection of mechanical pieces for $300 or less each. I don't think I could have said that 20 years ago.

Another brilliant example of excellent asian quality is WISE watches out of Thailand 🇹🇭

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casiodean

Back in the day, you didn't even have to pay for a Rolex. The ADs would just jump out of their shops and force you to take one so they could make room for better selling stock such as Casios.

Yeah, prices have gone mad with all these so-called luxury timepieces. So many factors involved that there are multiple posts about this all arguing why. Basically it's greed.

Also buying expensive watches isn't a hobby, it's just buying expensive things.

Funny, I'm 76 and can't remember that day. My parents gave me a Rolex while I was in engineering school in the late 60s and it was expensive even back then. Definitely not nearly as hard to get, but not anywhere near "given away."🙄

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It's harder AND easier. Harder if you run with the herd because the herd is bigger, growing and getting richer. Easier if you fly solo because the herd concentrates on a narrow field and the rest is open to you and few others.

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Anyone can have anything, but no one can have everything. Just pick the Rollie you want and save for it.

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I agree that it’s a great time to be playing in the under $2k tier. There are some brands putting out fantastic models for enthusiasts.

It’s been a terrible time to be a high end collector. It’s been getting inevitably worse since about 2018 when venture capitalists and hedge fund speculators put hundreds of millions of dollars into the used watch market, buying up as many hot Rolex, AP, PP, Lange, etc models as they could. They stripped the used market of models that people want and jacked up the secondary prices in the artificial scarcity they created.

Rolex has been mentioned a lot here but they have chucking out new watches as fast as they can. They have gone from about 800k pre-Covid to about 1.3 mill today yet demand still outstrips supply.

I think most people’s issue with Rolex isn’t even with Rolex. It’s with their local dealers. Rolex left retail allocation entirely in the hands of local dealers. The only ones complaining are those whose local dealers play games, lie or just won’t sell that one guy a watch.

But compare that to Patek or Lange, whose sales practices are closer to Ferrari than anything. Some models are for repeat customers only. Some models require an application that goes directly to corporate brand headquarters to determine if you are a suitable candidate to be allowed the opportunity to purchase their higher end models.

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Davemcc

I agree that it’s a great time to be playing in the under $2k tier. There are some brands putting out fantastic models for enthusiasts.

It’s been a terrible time to be a high end collector. It’s been getting inevitably worse since about 2018 when venture capitalists and hedge fund speculators put hundreds of millions of dollars into the used watch market, buying up as many hot Rolex, AP, PP, Lange, etc models as they could. They stripped the used market of models that people want and jacked up the secondary prices in the artificial scarcity they created.

Rolex has been mentioned a lot here but they have chucking out new watches as fast as they can. They have gone from about 800k pre-Covid to about 1.3 mill today yet demand still outstrips supply.

I think most people’s issue with Rolex isn’t even with Rolex. It’s with their local dealers. Rolex left retail allocation entirely in the hands of local dealers. The only ones complaining are those whose local dealers play games, lie or just won’t sell that one guy a watch.

But compare that to Patek or Lange, whose sales practices are closer to Ferrari than anything. Some models are for repeat customers only. Some models require an application that goes directly to corporate brand headquarters to determine if you are a suitable candidate to be allowed the opportunity to purchase their higher end models.

I don't blame those higher-end brands for being particular who buys them, look at the creeps around these days who'd be wearing them with 10 lbs. of gold around their necks driving a chrome-plated Escalade with flames coming out of the wheel wells. If I were Kari Voultilainen, I wouldn't want to see my watch on those people, I'd rather give them to the homeless. 😠

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salgud

I don't blame those higher-end brands for being particular who buys them, look at the creeps around these days who'd be wearing them with 10 lbs. of gold around their necks driving a chrome-plated Escalade with flames coming out of the wheel wells. If I were Kari Voultilainen, I wouldn't want to see my watch on those people, I'd rather give them to the homeless. 😠

Now just imagine the rage if Rolex qualified it’s customers at Rolex HQ in Switzerland?!!!

Pandemonium!!!!

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I think even calling oneself a collector is a bit laughable. The majority of those here will probably have three watches max. If we were kids collecting rubbers, (erasers in American), you wouldn’t refer to it as a collection, or a hobby for that matter. Or am I a collector for having 4 different kinds of dressing in the fridge? (Kewpie, Truffle Mayo, Sriracha & Tobasco).

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All watches have gone up. There is a lot to choose from that you can buy right now at all price points. Buying a Rolex seems to be tough now. People ask me every day about getting into our hobby. I say don't do it. I tell them you only need three watches. ! everyday watch. ! dress watch. 1 Casio G-Shock. Save your money.