5 Reasons I’m Excited For The Decline of Mechanical Watches
The demonizing narrative of smart watches and inevitable decline of mechanical watches seems to be a popular (and exhausting) theme among watch enthusiasts currently.
Personally, the way I see it playing out (in our lifetimes) is mechanical watches having a slow transition from mass consumer product to a niche artisan product. At the same time, smart watches are going to become more useful and approachable in both design and function; to the point that the positives will overwhelmingly outweigh the negative.
To me this is a win win situation.
So, i’m going to give you 5 reasons why this is a good thing and you should be excited too.
1. The faster the watch market declines, the faster you afford your grail.
As the mass consumer market for mechanical watches starts to die, we will see a steep decline in new affordable mechanical watches. However, vintage will become the new affordable mechanical watches, with really cool, rare complications becoming more affordable as a larger percentages of watches begin to fall into the rare but no one cares category.
2. F*ck watch journalists turned dealers/ad companies
We all know what we’re talking about here. These people have good intentions but end up perpetuating the consumerism of watches on behalf of the biggest watch makers, ultimately detracting from the artistry and self expression that I enjoy. These will be the first to go in the inevitable decline of mechanical watch making and I wish them good riddance.
3. Smart technology will make your life better
Despite what your inner grumpy old man will tell you, eventually smart watches, or rather the next evolutions will have a large positive impact.
I get why people hate them now, they’re ugly and really not that useful. However, I don’t think smart technology will stay in this state for long and besides, that’s not really why people hate them. I believe they hate them because they see where the technology is going and feel like they will have no choice but to use them due to their utility.
But..the only reason this doesn’t feel like a choice is because the utility is so great and it’s having a (perceived) overall net positive impact. I don’t really see how that’s a bad thing personally.
We’ve already went through the same cycle with smart phones, yeah there is definitely a learning curve in terms of efficiency but (in my opinion) it’s already had a marginal improvement on quality of life in not even one generation. I think we underestimate how much these smart devices are going to improve our health and communication over the next few generations.
4. The rise of the independent watch maker
On the new side of things, this decline will give rise to the independents. Sure, the entry level will also become less affordable due to the likes of Miyota and ETA scaling back production. However, on the higher end, I think it will become a bit more approachable with a lot more bespoke watch making and risk taking as a result of resell value mattering less and less.
5. You should hope it dies, or the mechanical watches will only be for the richest of the rich.
One of the misconceptions about the quartz crisis is that; Casio and Gshock didn't kill the mechanical watch industry. It elevated the industry to an aspirational level and put an emphasis on the watch as jewelry, art and virtue signaling.
Asparational goods only maintain their image by being inaccessible to the average person. Most brands modulate this by raising prices, so it creates a bubble effect. The bubble has to burst or else only a select few get access to the product.
Welcome to my WatchCrunch profile.
The big issue with smart watches IMO is they're too small. Now if apple could just make an OAP version 🤔
The big issue with smart watches IMO is they're too small. Now if apple could just make an OAP version 🤔
All we really want is to be a space cowboy. 🚀🤠
All we really want is to be a space cowboy. 🚀🤠
😎
No one buys watches anymore
Watches are dead
Smart watches killed the industry (despite clear growth bar COVID year 2020)
The unguided hand of the market will determine what happens no matter what we want or think.
I simply couldn’t disagree more with the premise of this post if I got drunk, got attacked by wild boars and ended up injured up a tree.
When an EMP happens my mechanical watch will still work along with a 69 Mustang. Just saying lol
I would argue that the increased connectivity that we've experienced via our phones, tablets etc has actually been to the detriment of our health & our society.
We are now so connected that in my job I can complete a week's work having walked no further than from my desk to the loo a few times a day every day. I have to make a conscious decision to be active.
Then there's the mental health effect on the younger generation that devices & social media has taken on them. Not to mention that going out is something old people did when they were young. Staring at your phone all day awaiting messages, liking sh1t on social media & paying someone to deliver your latest meal isn't benefiting society in a positive way.
Good old mechanical watches, saviour of the human race 😜
I agree with many of your points. But smart watches are already useful. Maybe not to this crowd, but to the general pop.
The apple watch out sells the entire series watch industry my multiple. By far. And who are we to say for others that their purchase is useless? Not me.
I do know that when they solve the blood sugar monitoring problem, I'll be wearing a smartwatch most times. It would have massive health benefits to hundreds of millions of people.
The truth is that mechanical watches are already a niche of a niche. Only 5% of watch sales are mechanical. The rest is quartz.
We are already there.
No one buys watches anymore
Watches are dead
Smart watches killed the industry (despite clear growth bar COVID year 2020)
/s Well played my friend.
I don't believe that the market for mechanical watches will decline in a disastrous fashion, unless we see a correction in the western markets, also. There is also a possibility that China may adjust its austerity stance in order to stimulate growth. (This will somewhat depend on Chinese corporate/consumer/local government debt levels that are hard to gauge.)
A decline in a market that has seen an otherwise healthy demand may also be indicative of an overall decline. This may be due to inflation not being fully under control in western democracies, and while not technically part of core inflation, higher interest rates drive up the cost of housing and transportation, combined with energy inflation. The western consumer may also end up not have the money to pay for luxury goods either. Luxury goods are a bit like a canary in a coal mine from my perspective.
The question of whether you will be able to afford a grail will depend on your own financial position degrading less than the luxury watch market.
No one buys watches anymore
Watches are dead
Smart watches killed the industry (despite clear growth bar COVID year 2020)
This is more a function of increasing wealth in the global economy. It means more people can afford Swiss watches. I'm pretty sure the number of people buying mechanical watches as a pct of the total population is shrinking. And this pales in comparison to growth of smartwatch.
I have a smart watch, but I only use it as a expensive step counter 😅
I check messages on my phone the way God intended 🙏🏾
I would love to see microbrand pricing return to normal. I feel that several launches by established micros / wannabe indies are inching close to $1000 and micros are about to fall off a cliff imo. I think the Miyota craze has effed them because it’s part hype. Generally speaking, don’t need a higher beat or a true GMT. These are overrated specs pushed by brands and YTs. At that price point, I don’t see the value proposition or uniqueness in many new models. I can pick up a Lorier for under $600. Cincinnati Watch Co packs a Selitta SW 200 Elabore in its units for around the same. If I want to spend over $1000, I will also look at Christopher Ward, Mido, Seiko, Farer, etc.
I would argue that the increased connectivity that we've experienced via our phones, tablets etc has actually been to the detriment of our health & our society.
We are now so connected that in my job I can complete a week's work having walked no further than from my desk to the loo a few times a day every day. I have to make a conscious decision to be active.
Then there's the mental health effect on the younger generation that devices & social media has taken on them. Not to mention that going out is something old people did when they were young. Staring at your phone all day awaiting messages, liking sh1t on social media & paying someone to deliver your latest meal isn't benefiting society in a positive way.
Good old mechanical watches, saviour of the human race 😜
We definitely have not learned how to use the technology but the proof of concept is there.
The best example I have give is the printing press. It only took a couple years for the first erotic novel to be printed after the release of Gutenberg’s press. It took almost 200 years for the first academic journal to be published.
We’re just high functioning apes, it takes us a while to figure stuff out.
I disagree with almost every statement you wrote 😆
I want some of what you’re smoking
Um, a market correction after a speculative bubble isn't a collapse. The collapse happened with the quartz crisis. All of my dad's fancy watches are quartz. Mechanical watches are still on a upswing compared to how things were in the 70s-80s.
The only thing that will kill the Mechanical watch market now is watch manufacturers deciding to cost engineer movements so they fail within 10-15 years and require a swap rather than a cleaning (plastic parts in some of the powermatic 80s for example).There isn't going to be a dip as bad as the quartz crisis where you could get a omega for 10% of its list price. People buy mechanical watches now because they're quirky, not because they were the only way to have the time on your wrist before smart watches came along.
I want some of what you’re smoking
My belief was that mechanicals are more popular now than they have been for a long time... Hence the explosion of microbrands and ever increasing prices being driven by demand.
Or am I missing the point? 🥴
Point 5 doesn’t make sense. If mechanical watches become even nicher, then they will become only expensive as the sub-1000 end dies off. This would cause them to only be available to the upper middle class and up.
As for point 2, I think that might actually benefit luxury dealers. They loooove finiteness and having a piece of the pie. Plus, the passage of time will take care of watches from desire brands still being sought after. A great example of this is the way certain said dealers talk about the black/green GMTM2. Paul Thorpe sounds eager in his efforts to shove the thing into the grave.
Anecdotally I see more non smartwatches now more than I did before (pre pandemic). Though I have moved during that time, so it could be a regional thing.
My belief was that mechanicals are more popular now than they have been for a long time... Hence the explosion of microbrands and ever increasing prices being driven by demand.
Or am I missing the point? 🥴
Microbrands sales are not driven by more total watch sales but rather sales shifting from large brands to small brands.
Sure the Swiss watch market has been growing consistently but also the total amount of money spent on watches both mechanical and quartz decreases each year and has been for a while. On the other hand the total amount of money spent on smart watches increases every year.
There’s definitely an argument that eventually this will stabilize at some point and both industries co-exsist.
My arguement is mostly facetious. I just don’t think that it’s really a big deal one way or the other. It’s a win win either way.
This was actually the article that inspired this writing.
https://robbreport.com/style/watch-collector/swiss-watch-exports-march-1235586797/
For March 2024 - for one month, when the world has gone to sh*t…
2024 looks like it might be a crap year but here’s the thing… it isn’t over yet. You can speculate, but even if it’s a bad year, it’s a bad year in a series of good years and marked growth both short and long term, and maybe, just maybe, when we hit Q3-Q4 we can understand what it all means.
You start your article with this:
which is easily disprovable considering actual data with regards to luxury Swiss watches (you know… what your reference article was talking about), but also because your article that you claim is your inspiration didn’t even mention smart watches. That the article actually states, for March 2024:
???
It’s got nothing to do with how any smart watches were sold, or that they even exist. You’re also not going to start finding your “grail” watches (ugh) for pennies now.
I can understand your point, but my take on point 4&5 is contrary to yours.
I think independent watchmakers would be the first ones going kaput if the industry decline. I mean, who in their right mind would open up a new startup in a declining industry, right? Moreover, watch giants have the facility, asset and resources to produce at scale which inevitably have more ability to lower their cost and produce, market and sell goods efficiently. Independent watchmakers popping up, in my analysis, is the byproduct of a thriving market.
A watch is already a luxury, and most population does not have the disposable income to spend even as little as $200 on a mechanical watch. Even more so when our phones, computers already got a clock on it. And we can agree that some watchmakers (the big ones) have repositioned themselves into a status symbol compang in lieu of a watchmaker. Rolex is not the tool watch it once was. Omega, mostly are not worn by professionals it made for. But I think, atleast right now, there’s no shortage of watchmakers that caters the demand for entry level watches (to put it into perspective, Seiko’s revenue in 2021 was 202 Billion compared to Rolex’s 13 Billion. It’s simply too big to pass. If the big ones aims for the ultra luxury market, there will always be others taking the entry-mid customers.
As a self-diagnosed watch enthusiast, I have a smartband. There are some things that the smart devices offer that mechanical or even digital watches can offer in a similar package (yet). One thing that always puts me off; is the inevitable decline of my smart device. My fitbit is 5-6 years old, still works, but the battery is abysmal at this point. And it’s simply uneconomical for me to repair it. As. some in the comment already point it out; the threat to modern mechanical watch is planned obsolescence. Smart devices can to some extent replace watches when it have some degree of repairability, which at this point is close to non existent.
This is an amusing post. I admire your courage saying something like this to this crowd
I don't think this market can be seen as a zero-sum game. Kinda silly, it's already niche and a lot of people now get into watches from wearing smart watches.
I would love to see microbrand pricing return to normal. I feel that several launches by established micros / wannabe indies are inching close to $1000 and micros are about to fall off a cliff imo. I think the Miyota craze has effed them because it’s part hype. Generally speaking, don’t need a higher beat or a true GMT. These are overrated specs pushed by brands and YTs. At that price point, I don’t see the value proposition or uniqueness in many new models. I can pick up a Lorier for under $600. Cincinnati Watch Co packs a Selitta SW 200 Elabore in its units for around the same. If I want to spend over $1000, I will also look at Christopher Ward, Mido, Seiko, Farer, etc.
Once a microbrand cracks $1000 they have to step up their game.
Christopher Ward and to a lesser extent, Formex, should just how much watch you can get for your money.
Heck, even big brands are looking a bit silly charging $1500-$3000 for rather plain SW-200-1s and not having similar features to CW and Formex.
I would argue that the increased connectivity that we've experienced via our phones, tablets etc has actually been to the detriment of our health & our society.
We are now so connected that in my job I can complete a week's work having walked no further than from my desk to the loo a few times a day every day. I have to make a conscious decision to be active.
Then there's the mental health effect on the younger generation that devices & social media has taken on them. Not to mention that going out is something old people did when they were young. Staring at your phone all day awaiting messages, liking sh1t on social media & paying someone to deliver your latest meal isn't benefiting society in a positive way.
Good old mechanical watches, saviour of the human race 😜
Yeah man…I DON’T want to be any more connected than I have to be for work. I already pissed away 2 years of my life being “connected” which was a detriment to my kids…NOT doing that again…EVER
A friend suggested that I get a smart watch for valid reasons. I’ve declined because I have a smart phone and I reserve time on my wrist for the (mostly) mechanical watches I really enjoy.
From an economic perspective I think that issues with demand destruction (which appears to be your thesis) is more complex and detrimental to regular collectors that your analysis has described. If there is no market for mechanical watches than the entire supply chain will shrivel up and supply will disappear and only the Uber rich will have access to even the lowliest Orient watch. Microbrands? forget it. Without access to off the shelf parts from established brands they won't be able to produce them at a scale that would make it profitable to sell them. Repairs? Not a chance as parts manufacturers close up because the real money in manufacturing is supplying to new builds, not repairs.
Honestly, the best thing that could happen is for the market to remain robust and have all segments of the market having healthy demand for their product. The recent economic volatility brought about by pandemics and geopolitical crisis' have not been good for anyone, including watch manufacturers. My opinion is that the current market decline is a market correction that will resolve itself sometime in 2025. Right now is probably not a great time to be a grey dealer but it's a pretty good time to be a collector.