I think for the hyper connected person the Apple Watch makes sense. I many ways it is also more of a status symbol that most watches (excluding Rolex) as it is easily identifiable by its design.

For me, I appreciate the simple analog nature of watches. Honestly I don't even like solely digital display watches and prefer anadigi dials.

I think that there are probably other ways that wearable technology can be incorporated into our lives to make it better and having something that has basically one job on your wrist is the way to go.

From an economic perspective I think that issues with demand destruction (which appears to be your thesis) is more complex and detrimental to regular collectors that your analysis has described. If there is no market for mechanical watches than the entire supply chain will shrivel up and supply will disappear and only the Uber rich will have access to even the lowliest Orient watch. Microbrands? forget it. Without access to off the shelf parts from established brands they won't be able to produce them at a scale that would make it profitable to sell them. Repairs? Not a chance as parts manufacturers close up because the real money in manufacturing is supplying to new builds, not repairs.

Honestly, the best thing that could happen is for the market to remain robust and have all segments of the market having healthy demand for their product. The recent economic volatility brought about by pandemics and geopolitical crisis' have not been good for anyone, including watch manufacturers. My opinion is that the current market decline is a market correction that will resolve itself sometime in 2025. Right now is probably not a great time to be a grey dealer but it's a pretty good time to be a collector.

I wouldn't be surprised if Jody and company don't do a GMT next. For me that is the next evolution of the brand. Step one was a tooly diver, step two is a dressy sports watch, step three is a more refined watch with a bezel to incorporate the case shape of the diver with the dial treatments of the sports watch.

Whatever happens I feel like Jody and company have absolutely used everything he has learned over the last 7 years to crack the code.

I got the point but I chose to focus on the reasons why a Rolex is better than a fake. I don't automatically assume people who are wearing a Rolex are wearing a fake. In most instances I give them the benefit of the doubt unless it's blatantly obvious.

Here's my perspective:

1. Buying fakes surpports criminal activity. While you may consider copyright infringement ads a victimless crime (it isn't), the reality is that counterfeit watches is likely part of a broader criminal enterprise.

2. You are diminishing your enjoyment of the hobby. Buying and wearing a fake Rolex may be a shortcut to status for non watch enthusiasts but if you are someone that is part of the community you will always be aware that someone will call you out. This makes it less likely you will engage with the community and this will reduce your ability to engage with said community.

3. It's wasteful. First the quality is probably not there and if you ever need it serviced than unless you do it yourself you risk having the watch destroyed by said watch maker.

these are off the top of my head. honestly if you love watches than owning fake watches iesj counter intuitive.

That's a great looking watch. Has some JLC Polaris vibes.

I think you are on the right track with a quartz watch. Personally I would recommend a sports watch GADA. I would look at Citizen and Seiko at that price point as you can find some really good watches. You could also look at the Casio Edifice line. My only complaint with Casio is their Edifice watches tend to be on the bigger size. If you get one with a steel bracelet it will be more versatile and look for 100m WR. Good luck on your hunt.