Grumpy old man (me) rant
This article popped up in my Google feed. Google knows that I collect watches, so it serves up watch content every time I open up the browser to google.com. (They, also, weirdly, keep giving me articles on how to deal with constipation. But, whatever…)
This is interesting…
But, where, for the love of god, is the evidence that the price drops in the secondary markets have anything whatsoever to do with falling Crypto prices?
This is literally all I could find in the article, and half of it almost unintelligible!
The secondary market for other luxury goods, such as handbags, is vulnerable to some of the same elements that inflated watch prices. It has also seen an influx of new younger buyers, for example. Yet it has been resilient so far, perhaps because although prices have risen, it has not experienced the same bubble.
Nevertheless, what is happening in timepieces may be a taste of things to come in luxury resale and top-end retail stores alike.
Many of the same factors that boosted watches also lifted demand in the primary market for sneakers, bags and fine jewelry. Analysts at Jefferies have estimated that crypto wealth accounted for 25%-30% of growth in US top-end sales last year. Demand is also closely correlated to the stock markets.
Okay… so, what I just learned from the article is…
- Jeffries estimates that the wealth effect from crypto’s rise accounted for a large share of growth in sales of top-end luxury goods, like sneakers, handbags, fine jewelry, and watches
- And, yet, it’s only the Holy Trinity of Hype whose prices have suffered, while “the secondary market for other luxury goods, such as handbags… has been resilient so far”
- But, according to the headline, the fall in crypto prices is THE CAUSE for the fall in prices of these watches, yet the only evidence cited in support of the conjecture is that crypto wealth accounted for 25%-30% growth in sales of top-end goods… all of which are doing just fine in the secondary markets other than the “Holy Trinity of Hype"!
I don’t mean to be so negative, but come on! For all the evidence this journalist has mustered, the title of the article could have been, “Stunned by UFOs, exasperated fighter pilots get little help from Pentagon… which is what has caused falling Rolex and Patek Philippe prices.”
The journalist does as good a job showing that the crypto meltdown caused certain timepieces’ prices to fall, as I just did showing that the 2004 “Tic Tac” encounter between the Nimitz’s crew and UFOs is what precipitated the price declines - in other words, she provides exactly ZERO evidence!
But, you know what she did do? She successfully got me to click on the link to the article, by using a really good clickbait title. What she should have done, to get even more views, was to use the “O face” thumbnail!
Yeah, that’s all. Just a random rant about a stupid headline leading to a stupid article. I guess I’m posting this here on WC, because when I tried to grouse to my wife about it, she pulled out the trusty, “When did you become such a grumpy old man?”
My response, as always: “Uh… starting about age 6?"
****
Total non sequitur… actually, not true. I think the primary reason I wrote up this rant was to signal boost the charitable auction. Anyway, charitable auction for Wolf Blake Double Winder with Storage going until Monday, July 11, 12pm PT. Winning bid gets QUADRUPLED! All proceeds go to GiveDirectly for Kenyan families living below the global poverty line.
The Artist formerly known as @HotWatchChick69 and formerly-formerly @Omeganut
More from Mr.Dee.Bater
This sort of writing points out the differences between generalist and specialist knowledge. You, from what I can tell, specialize in finance and watches. When you read something in your wheelhouse so to speak you expect a baseline of knowledge that approximates yours. Reporters are generalists. This person until recently was reporting on school board meetings. When it comes to watches and crypto they are a stranger in a strange land. The person who wrote the headline may not have even read the article.
Journalists are better at the what than the why. Prices have slumped recently just a bit. Why? Oh, I don't know look at some macro trends where everything is going to hell in a handbasket. Too easy? Ok, tie it to crypto because we don't like it and can't explain it. I will bet that a further analysis piece will call for further regulation of crypto. Everything always calls for further regulation.
For fun I sometimes go on my wife's Amazon account and search for female adult toys a few times to trigger an algorithm on her so those pop up in adverts. She tends to be a little Victorian so the reaction is priceless
Just extra glad I traded my OP for my SLGH009 when I did. I just checked Chrono 24 and the prices have dropped big time. For Rolex, not for my GS 😁
And this makes me a not grumpy old man. Just a tired middle aged man per the usual.
According to my intense study of the business section of the Wall Street Journal, usually while sitting on my porcelain throne, the segment of the population that affords luxury watches has not endured any hardships due to the slump in stock market yet. These are not the people who lose their minds when their net worth trends 10-20% up or down.
This may change should we really enter a recession.
Granted, I see investments in luxury watches as speculative assets, just like crypto. There may be a correlation, but crypto does not cause a decline in watch prices.
This sort of writing points out the differences between generalist and specialist knowledge. You, from what I can tell, specialize in finance and watches. When you read something in your wheelhouse so to speak you expect a baseline of knowledge that approximates yours. Reporters are generalists. This person until recently was reporting on school board meetings. When it comes to watches and crypto they are a stranger in a strange land. The person who wrote the headline may not have even read the article.
Journalists are better at the what than the why. Prices have slumped recently just a bit. Why? Oh, I don't know look at some macro trends where everything is going to hell in a handbasket. Too easy? Ok, tie it to crypto because we don't like it and can't explain it. I will bet that a further analysis piece will call for further regulation of crypto. Everything always calls for further regulation.
🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯
Dude, I think you and I are twins - except you're older, whiter, and less good-looking than me - which is why we love arguing with one another so much!
I have an absolutely hilarious story about journalism.
The insight I had that very moment: "Oh my god... this explains a lot about the world!"
Just extra glad I traded my OP for my SLGH009 when I did. I just checked Chrono 24 and the prices have dropped big time. For Rolex, not for my GS 😁
And this makes me a not grumpy old man. Just a tired middle aged man per the usual.
Dude! You're extra glad you traded your OP for the SLGH009, because that trade caused you to go from this...
... to this...
This sort of writing points out the differences between generalist and specialist knowledge. You, from what I can tell, specialize in finance and watches. When you read something in your wheelhouse so to speak you expect a baseline of knowledge that approximates yours. Reporters are generalists. This person until recently was reporting on school board meetings. When it comes to watches and crypto they are a stranger in a strange land. The person who wrote the headline may not have even read the article.
Journalists are better at the what than the why. Prices have slumped recently just a bit. Why? Oh, I don't know look at some macro trends where everything is going to hell in a handbasket. Too easy? Ok, tie it to crypto because we don't like it and can't explain it. I will bet that a further analysis piece will call for further regulation of crypto. Everything always calls for further regulation.
I don’t think it’s about specialist knowledge so much as understanding what the job is supposed to be. As a “journalist” you make a point that you think readers will find interesting, then you support it with evidence. That used to be a common knowledge interpretation of the job. Didn’t matter that you were a sports writer, you still understood that if you had to write a human interest piece on how UFO encounters changed the lives of fighter pilots, you better gather some information.
The failing was in not accepting that you should research your subject, and that when you make a claim, you need to back it up with evidence.
I don’t think it’s about specialist knowledge so much as understanding what the job is supposed to be. As a “journalist” you make a point that you think readers will find interesting, then you support it with evidence. That used to be a common knowledge interpretation of the job. Didn’t matter that you were a sports writer, you still understood that if you had to write a human interest piece on how UFO encounters changed the lives of fighter pilots, you better gather some information.
The failing was in not accepting that you should research your subject, and that when you make a claim, you need to back it up with evidence.
"Sentence first - verdict afterwards."
Very often this sort of writing starts with a premise and then seeks to find evidence to support it. And with a deadline approaching: words, words, words, conclusion supporting premise.
According to my intense study of the business section of the Wall Street Journal, usually while sitting on my porcelain throne, the segment of the population that affords luxury watches has not endured any hardships due to the slump in stock market yet. These are not the people who lose their minds when their net worth trends 10-20% up or down.
This may change should we really enter a recession.
Granted, I see investments in luxury watches as speculative assets, just like crypto. There may be a correlation, but crypto does not cause a decline in watch prices.
💯💯💯💯💯💯💯💯💯
Crypto, luxury watches, cars, rocks, refrigerators, toaster ovens, and toilets all have one thing in common: They don't generate streams of income / free cash flow. Therefore, their fundamental value over time is zero.
I accidentally bought some Bitcoin back in 2015, and have held onto it since, just for sh*ts and giggles. And you hit the nail on the head - crypto is an "investment" in the same way that betting on Manchester City to beat West Ham by more than 3 goals when the Premier League kicks off on August 7th is an "investment."
Dude! You're extra glad you traded your OP for the SLGH009, because that trade caused you to go from this...
... to this...
How’d you get my photos?! 😉
"Sentence first - verdict afterwards."
Very often this sort of writing starts with a premise and then seeks to find evidence to support it. And with a deadline approaching: words, words, words, conclusion supporting premise.
While excepting the truth of that statement, I hate that truth.
This sort of writing points out the differences between generalist and specialist knowledge. You, from what I can tell, specialize in finance and watches. When you read something in your wheelhouse so to speak you expect a baseline of knowledge that approximates yours. Reporters are generalists. This person until recently was reporting on school board meetings. When it comes to watches and crypto they are a stranger in a strange land. The person who wrote the headline may not have even read the article.
Journalists are better at the what than the why. Prices have slumped recently just a bit. Why? Oh, I don't know look at some macro trends where everything is going to hell in a handbasket. Too easy? Ok, tie it to crypto because we don't like it and can't explain it. I will bet that a further analysis piece will call for further regulation of crypto. Everything always calls for further regulation.
So I’ve been watching the show Travelers on Netflix recently (cause I’ve watched everything else already) and there was a scene where a traveler confronted a “journalist“ for their rhetoric and lies. I feel like the response was pretty perfect.
He basically said he’s not a journalist, he’s an entertainer. And if he can make up crazy stories and get people to believe him, he has made money for him and his company and done his job. It’s not about content, it’s about readership and number of followers.
I feel like that more or less sums up the majority of “journalists” today. Clickbate authored. Right @HotWatchChick69 ?!
So I’ve been watching the show Travelers on Netflix recently (cause I’ve watched everything else already) and there was a scene where a traveler confronted a “journalist“ for their rhetoric and lies. I feel like the response was pretty perfect.
He basically said he’s not a journalist, he’s an entertainer. And if he can make up crazy stories and get people to believe him, he has made money for him and his company and done his job. It’s not about content, it’s about readership and number of followers.
I feel like that more or less sums up the majority of “journalists” today. Clickbate authored. Right @HotWatchChick69 ?!
And again, while true, I hate this.
The issue I see here is that these folks don’t clearly identify themselves as entertainers. Sure when you come after them they say “but I’m just an entertainer “. But the rest of the time they act, they imply that they are journalists because that helps get people to buy what they’re selling.
You see this all the time with political “personalities”. They have TV shows where they pretend to report the news but are really just saying what they know you want to hear. Then when somebody calls out their bulls**t it Turns out they were an entertainer the whole time and can’t believe people would listen to them.
I am pretty certain that the author Andrea Felsted, learned everything she knows about economics from Joe Biden.
The author didn't read the most important book and knows $h!t about bitcoin and crypto in general 🤷♂️
Contrived content? Welcome to the internet… I think it got what it wanted - a click and a read. I get slightly irked when I read watch pieces and see stupid takes and shootouts, but it’s not designed for me to digest and debate, it’s designed to dazzle, excite and generate traffic. The good stuff is buried deep, locked behind paywalls, or in an actual book.
Every decade there is a collecting/investing bubble. In the 1970s it was stamps and the prices seen for the "hot" stamps in that time have never been seen again. Real estate goes through numerous bubbles like we are experiencing now in the US. The crazy doubling of real estate in the past decade will inevitably fall, but will not fall to the extent that it has risen.
Many people who get on these types of craze are the same people Bernie Madoff and others like him take advantage of - they think they have found a sure thing for making profits and will learn the hard way. Remember the Beanie Baby craze? You had adults running around to find pristine stuffed toys that they could purchase for retail to resell to "collectors" for multiples of the price including a whole business of making tag protectors so that the paper tag would not be bent or damaged in any way. How many of those stuffed toys have any value now that the craze has expired?
It is attrubted to PT Barnum the phrase "There's a sucker born every minute" (though there is no evidence he actually said it) and for those who pay inflated prices for collectibles in the hope that they have found an anti-gravity device, this quote applies.
However, I would prefer to use a real quote from PT Barnum that is what we should all consider when investing:
“A penny here, and a dollar there, placed at interest, goes on accumulating, and in this way the desired result is attained. It requires some training, perhaps, to accomplish this economy, but when once used to it, you will find there is more satisfaction in rational saving than in irrational spending.”
-- P. T. Barnum
One bit of information I would love to know is what percentage of luxury watch transactions were completed in crypto, because that's the scenario where I think the linkage between crypto crashing and watch prices falling makes a lot of sense.
The theory goes, you basically had a bunch of excess liquidity enter the system when every AD/gray marketeer and their mother started accepting crypto payments in lieu of cash. This caused prices to inflate because supply didn't change.
Now that crypto has declined, prices get hammered (relatively speaking) because that liquidity exits the system with BTC et al just worth less in dollar terms.
Its like the pandemic stimulus impact on the broader economy, except on steroids.
Yeah, it's not crypto per se. Crypto is probably a great indicator of risk appetites across the board coming off. It was just one more asset class caught up in this "everything bubble" caused by central bank largesse. Crypto is a good case study because, as you say, it has no future cash flows, and all it has going for it is a great story. Like a Rolex watch. So the fall in crypto and the fall in Rolex prices are correlated but not causative. Both are symptoms of the ending (gentle, I hope) of this crazy "everything bubble".
Your post reminded me of another article talking about Rolex as the best investment. The whole article was based on data from Bob's Watches. I don't blame the CEO of Bob's Watches at all, as It was his job to convince people that Rolex watches were great investment. However, for the author of a prestigious financial media outlet to base the whole argument on one single source, that is just mind boggling.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/paul-simon-and-edie-brickell-sell-their-connecticut-estate-at-a-loss-01657204122
Yeah, it's not crypto per se. Crypto is probably a great indicator of risk appetites across the board coming off. It was just one more asset class caught up in this "everything bubble" caused by central bank largesse. Crypto is a good case study because, as you say, it has no future cash flows, and all it has going for it is a great story. Like a Rolex watch. So the fall in crypto and the fall in Rolex prices are correlated but not causative. Both are symptoms of the ending (gentle, I hope) of this crazy "everything bubble".
There is a bubble in crypto every 4 years because of the bitcoin halving event. So imo not a good case study to link to other assets. Most people go into crypto to make fast money but dont understand bitcoin and austrian economics. Will be interesting to see if more people will discover the truth behind bitcoin if they release the central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and take away the paper/cash from them....
There is a bubble in crypto every 4 years because of the bitcoin halving event. So imo not a good case study to link to other assets. Most people go into crypto to make fast money but dont understand bitcoin and austrian economics. Will be interesting to see if more people will discover the truth behind bitcoin if they release the central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and take away the paper/cash from them....
Interesting. I must say my mental model of Crypto is pretty primitive - not really extending beyond tulips :)
Interesting. I must say my mental model of Crypto is pretty primitive - not really extending beyond tulips :)
It is pretty easy:
Bitcoin = commodity
All the other crypto $h!t coins = tulips
If you read some books about bitcoin you will be blown away about this 8th world wonder, trust me 😉 it usually takes around 100 days to fully understand bitcoin economically and also the tech behind it. But it is worth... it is also good for the watch addiction because as soon as you become a bitcoiner you spend less on watches and safe more in bitcoin 🙏
It is pretty easy:
Bitcoin = commodity
All the other crypto $h!t coins = tulips
If you read some books about bitcoin you will be blown away about this 8th world wonder, trust me 😉 it usually takes around 100 days to fully understand bitcoin economically and also the tech behind it. But it is worth... it is also good for the watch addiction because as soon as you become a bitcoiner you spend less on watches and safe more in bitcoin 🙏
Ha ha. Thanks. I’ll have a look at bitcoin.
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You know, it's funny, but as mentioned earlier, it's not a problem if somebody simply labels their content as "This is for entertainment purposes only." Then, you click on whatever article, and it doesn't matter what the words say, so long as you're having fun.
I think the mental leap I need to make is to come to the full zen understanding that ALL news is nothing more than pure entertainment. Don't care what the source is, don't care what the article is about... clicking on ANY and ALL "news" articles is akin to clicking on a YT video of Johnny Knoxville getting hit in the nuts with a softball.
Mate you're the corporate guy. If you can't understand the finance flim flam we're all completely fucked
Mate you're the corporate guy. If you can't understand the finance flim flam we're all completely fucked
Ha! Yeah, what I'm saying is that everything in the article is flim flam!!! Ha!
Even the IMF has noted that crypto prices are starting to move in line with stocks so it's within reason that one speculative market (crypto as a speculative asset class) can have a spillover impact to another type of speculative market (some luxury watches have become a speculative investment vehicle; a discussion for another day).
So, while there is no direct evidence that what's happening in the crypto and stock markets are impacting secondary watch prices, there's a strong correlation that can be drawn. Specifically the rise and subsequent fall in crypto "wealth" and the extreme rise in prices of hype pieces (PF 5711s, AP ROs, Rolex Daytonas).
Roman Sharf has a great YouTube video discussing luxury watch market prices that I think is well worth your time to watch: https://youtu.be/wbvSuHgOjMY
Both investing and watch collecting have a huge and overlapping population of naive people who were born rich, and a comparable population of con artists out to separate them from their (family's) money. This situation weaves a most intricate tapestry of superstition, disinformation, and jealousy. Remember this, and take every single piece of information that comes out of the upper class with many, many grains of salt.
I also battle constipation. 😑🤣.... Seriously though.🥺