The linear regression fallacy
No macro photos for today, just a quick reflection, and my own opinion, which as usual is going to annoy a lot of people. But that's why the internet was invented before it became the platform of choice for cats.
So today's reflection is about the fallacy of evolving a watch collection toward a "grail" and why it doesn't work for me. And it all began with my G-Shock DW-5600E.
I noticed that there are quite a few collectors for whom watch collection is some kind of a game that progress until it reach an end goal, which is sometime called the exit watch, the one and only, or more frequently: The Grail.
It turn the whole process of owning watches like some kind of linear plot where you begin with a cheapy, progress through daily (sometime called a GADA), have a breakthrough at the entry luxury, and end up with a true luxury watch.
I'll let other people decide what is luxury and whether it can be attainable at all, with or without any middlemen being eliminated in this process. The same can be said about the definition of a grail. For me this is another fallacy but it's also one that I'll leave for another day.
What drew my attention is the parallels that I can draw to a pseudo Darwinian evolution where each member improve and follow it predecessor until we reach the culmination of creation (sarcasm tag goes here).
It doesn't work like that for me. Not at all. Absolutely not. For me watch collection is a tree that keeps branching to infinity. Some type evolves, other remains the same and there are also branches that wither and dies from lack of interest. There will always be a next watch on the list.
For me the DW-5600E, is not a beginner watch. It didn't lead me to buy luxury watches, which don't really interest me, and it's not going to be replaced by anything anytime soon.
For me the "evolution" of a watch collection toward a certain type of watches is a a fallacy. I'm fully aware that for other collectors it's not a fallacy and that for them it's a truth. But here is the thing about truths, there's not a single one that applies to everybody, everything and every time and trying to enforce one truth over another is quite annoying and stinks of zealotry.
I don't see myself progressing toward anything special, I don't care about the value, real or perceived, of my collection. What I do care is how nice the DW-5600E is on my wrist today and what a great idea it was to fit it with this strap from Vario.
My passion for watches isn't going to evolve and that's a good thing (for me).
I'm a big fan of watches that are interesting because they are either unique, have interesting features, well designed or simply offer a great value for their price.
I’m reminded of what Old Ben said
This is a perfect analogy and the reason why I have several 'grail' watches that I would like to own.
I would tend to agree; the other day I asked how people define grail watches here and everyone has their own ideas of what that means to them. It seems to vary from being something they want a lot that is possible but not immediately accessible, through to more of a White Whale than a grail. Anyhow, I don’t (yet) have a grail watch, it’s things that interest me here and now. I also agree with the tree analogy too.
What I would hypothesise is whatever the motivation for that next watch, if you take the cost of a watch over time or order of purchase, it would be common to see a linear regression plot with increasing cost. I would suggest that this may be related to factors such as increasing disposable income as we get older and the psychology of spending, once you’ve broken a spending barrier, it’s mentally easier to do again and the next barrier isn’t as unrealistic as it would have been.
I agree that a grail watch quickly becomes the focus for many collectors after they have just started collecting for the first time. I danced with the idea of getting my 10k plus grail watch for a few months. I then got very interested in modding watches and decided to homage the grail watch which saved me over $9,700 USD.
In addition my collection focus has gone from iconic affordable watches to custom builds and they are not that far apart in price and if anything an appropriate step up.
Watch collecting does not always have to take you down luxury lane to continue to enjoy the hobby. That are so many other ways that it can be achieved.
I would tend to agree; the other day I asked how people define grail watches here and everyone has their own ideas of what that means to them. It seems to vary from being something they want a lot that is possible but not immediately accessible, through to more of a White Whale than a grail. Anyhow, I don’t (yet) have a grail watch, it’s things that interest me here and now. I also agree with the tree analogy too.
What I would hypothesise is whatever the motivation for that next watch, if you take the cost of a watch over time or order of purchase, it would be common to see a linear regression plot with increasing cost. I would suggest that this may be related to factors such as increasing disposable income as we get older and the psychology of spending, once you’ve broken a spending barrier, it’s mentally easier to do again and the next barrier isn’t as unrealistic as it would have been.
I disagree in my case. There is nothing cost related about my purchases and it's not because I'm hurting for money.
I agree that a grail watch quickly becomes the focus for many collectors after they have just started collecting for the first time. I danced with the idea of getting my 10k plus grail watch for a few months. I then got very interested in modding watches and decided to homage the grail watch which saved me over $9,700 USD.
In addition my collection focus has gone from iconic affordable watches to custom builds and they are not that far apart in price and if anything an appropriate step up.
Watch collecting does not always have to take you down luxury lane to continue to enjoy the hobby. That are so many other ways that it can be achieved.
If there is one thing that rubs me the wrong way its an influencer or YT personality trying to explain to me what is the perfect collection for XXX$. It's always about monetary value and you can be sure to hear the word "luxury" at least twice.
Well, I think the truth is …. All the talk of grail watches, one and gone etc.. is just a lot of, mainly, journalists having somthing to talk about and now its kinda stuck with the community as a fun idea but in reality its way more nuanced. Many have multiple so called grail watches, some collect only micro brands, one persons grail is anothers entry level, we dont all have the same pay cheques. As we say here in France ‘ its a load of baloney ‘
Well, I think the truth is …. All the talk of grail watches, one and gone etc.. is just a lot of, mainly, journalists having somthing to talk about and now its kinda stuck with the community as a fun idea but in reality its way more nuanced. Many have multiple so called grail watches, some collect only micro brands, one persons grail is anothers entry level, we dont all have the same pay cheques. As we say here in France ‘ its a load of baloney ‘
The problem is that it stops being funny when someone start to believe it and it leads to over spending because a collection "must" progress toward luxury.
Hell yes this is brilliant, echoes my collecting ethos. I nearly, nearly went down the route of buying a 'grail' ie very expensive (to me anyway) but realised that my 'tree' would have to be trimmed to a pole (the reality of having a grail) but I like my tree with all its different branches its a whole lot more fun to me that way. Obviously if a lottery win came my way things would be a bit different but I'm going to enjoy sitting in my tree enjoying my many moderate branches, but if others want the grail poles good luck to them. Great post,cheers👍👍
If there is one thing that rubs me the wrong way its an influencer or YT personality trying to explain to me what is the perfect collection for XXX$. It's always about monetary value and you can be sure to hear the word "luxury" at least twice.
Agreed 👍🏾
Yes. Same 🍻….
haha, I did your linear progression graph the other way around. Started out with a GO Senator, then worked my way 'backward' via a CW, Squale etc. to a couple of Paganis :-) Then to MrJones, and now a vintage Zenith...
I like your tree analogy, there is no fixed end point, you wander around the branches finding and sometimes buying stuff you like. Much healthier and more fun than striving for the "ultimate collection" with required pieces X, Y and Z.
I disagree in my case. There is nothing cost related about my purchases and it's not because I'm hurting for money.
Indeed, as I said, I would expect it to be common to see an upward trend in spending, not absolute. In my case, I’ve not been collecting for long enough to get enough data points so value wise, my purchases are erratic but expect some sort of pattern to emerge. I don’t have cost as a factor, other than a ceiling of what I can afford at a given time so a watch I want could fall between that ceiling and zero, it would be down to how interesting I was in it, not where it fell in that spectrum of cost. What I would guess is that over time, that ceiling of affordability (perceived or actual) will increase for many people, opening up increased number of possibilities and that could lead to that upward trend. It would be an interesting experiment to do, I mean, I would find it interesting, a lot would feel it would completely suck the joy out of the room!
I also don't buy into the "ultimately get the grail" mindset. It subtly yet perniciously says that the cheaper or "lower tiered" watches are inferior, and/or is but a stepping stone to something "perfect"-- the Grail. This is plain condescending and steep in elitism. Whoever invented and perpetuated this mindset is a clown. 🤡
No literary expert here, but pretty sure the OG reference to a/the "grail" comes out of Arthurian stuff, where it symbolized the unobtainable, I 🤔.
In my mind grail = white whale.
It always seems like a watch enthusiast "should" be slowly moving up the luxury scale, and if you aren't, well for shame.
Nothing at all against luxury watches either, or wanting to get one. Also nothing wrong with being content with what you have and where you are at.
The only "journey" all of us are really on is life. So live it. Get into watches, trade for something you've always wanted, or sell all of them and go back to affordables....don't forget in all that chasing watches, to spend time with your spouses, play kitchen with your kiddos, rough house with your dog.
The older I get, the more I realize I'll take a watch case full of Seiko 5's, and Ali brands, if it means I could retire right now and spend every day with my family.
#priorities
Well said as usual. My grail is my next watch or what's the point is kinda how I'm looking at my collection. I'm like the "KungFu" of watch collecting just wondering the land looking for adventurers/watches to get into and put away to enjoy again later. Minus the grasshopper of course😎
I agree completely.
I started out lusting after expensive watches, and thinking of ways to "upgrade" my collection. After some thought, I realized that more expensive watches wouldn't make me any happier than the ones I already had. I also came to realize that every dollar spent on watches was a dollar I couldn't spend on my other hobbies.
With those two things in mind, I switched gears and stopped thinking about expensive watches. I enjoy my Sea Quartz as much as my GSAR, and enjoy my $65 Timex Atlantis more than both of them.
I enjoy these morning musings. The whole grail concept imbues a slightly abnormal adaptation to the stresses of normal life (watch collecting) with the gloss of the "Hero's Journey." I don't know if the grail talk started as clever marketing or as a post hoc rationalization for consumption, but it really is chicken or the egg at this point.
My standard response to a grail question is that I don't have a grail, only temporary infatuations. I collect shiny things. I am not on a quest.
I enjoy these morning musings. The whole grail concept imbues a slightly abnormal adaptation to the stresses of normal life (watch collecting) with the gloss of the "Hero's Journey." I don't know if the grail talk started as clever marketing or as a post hoc rationalization for consumption, but it really is chicken or the egg at this point.
My standard response to a grail question is that I don't have a grail, only temporary infatuations. I collect shiny things. I am not on a quest.
And that 'hero's journey' is especially vacuous when you consider that in 99.9% of all cases there is no one around in real life to shower said hero with admiration for his trials and tribulations and for his fancy collection of shiny baubles 🙂
Good post. Almost purchased a £1k watch as I felt my collection should have more premium watches in it. Had a rethink and didn't go ahead, who am I trying to impress by spending that much? A more affordable option can bring as much joy.
When I first became intrigued with horology as opposed to just the love of a mechanical timepiece on my wrist, my influences came from magazines and heavy coffee table books often published only in Italian: lots of complicated movements, vintage Rolex doctors’ watches, rose gold Pateks, a hundred other obscure manufactures with moonphases, jump hour movements, beautiful dials paired with classic old school watchmaking. I wore a simple steel Omega Seamaster circa 60s gifted to me by my parents the summer before I started middle school. Unless you knew some private collectors or independent watch sellers, the enthusiast here in Toronto was not going to easily find interesting horology. I disappointed myself by buying 3 Rolex watches after I started to earn a proper pay check after graduation from university. Eventually I did manage to purchase watches similar to the models that excited my more immature self, they were never grail watches, upon reflection not even watches that I was keenly interested in. Finally, semi retired from my work, decades after I slipped on that first Seamaster, still have no grails, buy and enjoy watches not unlike my first serious watch the humble Omega. I might be stating the obvious but for me at least my life hopefully involved more relevant journeys than arriving at some mass produced object sold for profit. I will admit that I own quite a few and will continue to buy what is curious and affordable.
I’m reminded of what Old Ben said
And becoming more accurate by the day
I also don't buy into the "ultimately get the grail" mindset. It subtly yet perniciously says that the cheaper or "lower tiered" watches are inferior, and/or is but a stepping stone to something "perfect"-- the Grail. This is plain condescending and steep in elitism. Whoever invented and perpetuated this mindset is a clown. 🤡
True, and it also doesn't help when a forum become an echo chamber for said elitism.
No literary expert here, but pretty sure the OG reference to a/the "grail" comes out of Arthurian stuff, where it symbolized the unobtainable, I 🤔.
In my mind grail = white whale.
It always seems like a watch enthusiast "should" be slowly moving up the luxury scale, and if you aren't, well for shame.
Nothing at all against luxury watches either, or wanting to get one. Also nothing wrong with being content with what you have and where you are at.
The only "journey" all of us are really on is life. So live it. Get into watches, trade for something you've always wanted, or sell all of them and go back to affordables....don't forget in all that chasing watches, to spend time with your spouses, play kitchen with your kiddos, rough house with your dog.
The older I get, the more I realize I'll take a watch case full of Seiko 5's, and Ali brands, if it means I could retire right now and spend every day with my family.
#priorities
The grail and its quest are a motif of Arthur's legend but I'm really not sure if this is its first appearance in literature. It's probably based on oral traditions and ballads of that period. What I do remember is that this ballad is much more recent than what most people think it is.
But the whole idea of a grail as it applies to collecting "stuff" is not a concept that I can adopt for myself, one of the reasons is that this quest implies that something momentous will happen at it end, and we all know that it's not going to happen when you collect watches.
Unless of course the momentous event is the wife leaving for someone with a better understanding of life's priorities and finance management.
Yeah, I don't have a tangible end game to this addiction... err, hobby. At best my journey may be likened to a roller coaster. I see a watch I like and if I have extra in the watch fund, I buy it. It may be cheap or pricier, doesn't matter. As long as I can afford it and it will give me a sense of satisfaction or fulfillment, then so be it. No grail, no progression, no what next or anything like that.