how much does future value matter

Let me address cost; value is in the eye of the beholder. Are they over priced? I do not know. What I do know is that resale value does not figures into my watch decissions. It is nice to have a watch go up in value but unless you intend to sell it really doesn’t mean much. 
 

BTW, everybody seems to think this value retention is something new. It isn’t. An old boss of mine told me once he had bought one but had to sell it as his financial situation dictated he do. Point is, he sold it for more than he paid for it years before; this story happened in the early 1990’s so....

if i buy a watch it is for love not to hope its values go up. i think most of the people at watchcrunch would do the same as this is a watch enthusiast forum. i agree with you patek, vc, etc is high horology. rolex is good, but they do better on the marketing. older generation like my father from middle class family bought a rolex as a symbol of "i've made it" watch for himself and i dont think he's ever sold it. but as the internet goes i think most of the younger generation will buy a rolex just to flip it

To answer your question. For me it just doesn't. At all. 

This subject has been done to death millions of times so any comments have already been made over years. 

For the specs, they are very overpriced. 

The money they are sold for is a combination of them being a solid watch, good service, limited supply & marketing; mostly marketing.

If I was to buy one, it would be to keep forever because they are excellent machines. 

However, I do not see a purchase of one in my future. I'm not affluent & short of a highly unlikely lottery win (usually never play), will never be. Spending 2x MSRP (or more) on a piece of obsolete luxury technology just isn't my thing. 

There's a saying in Korean watch forums stating that watch enthusiasm begins with rejecting Rolex and culminates to accepting Rolex. As in, we often hate on Rolex because they're overpriced sports watches, but also you have to admire what they have done to push sports watches to where they are now.

As to whether they're worth it... I think that really depends on your own approach I believe. I liken Rolex to Apple or Porsche: they just work out of the box. Yes you can fine tweak them, but the R&D really tries to make your experience perfect out of the factory. I think it's those small things people don't think about too much that contribute to the cost, along with the marketing of course.

I'd love to own a Rolex, but I also feel like Tudor has stepped up to what Rolex was supposed to be. 

As for the question in the post title, for myself, the actual monetary value is not what I'm after. I guess I like those "rookie" watches that have potential to make it big. Like I always tell my friends that I told them to keep an eye on Kevin Durant, that'd he'd become a major superstar (I still have his Sonics jersey 😂). Kind of like that.

I get it, but I'm a fairly new member, so like a newborn baby it's all new to me.  We all come to the hobby at different times with different experiences, so if the topic is not your thing maybe you can just ignore it.  We are not all jaded experts like yourself.    

All of my watches are meant to be worn. Future value matters in the sense that I would buy certain brands used, and only used. But I am not hoping for an appreciation.

IMHO, this is a question for people who got serious about the watch collecting hobby of late, genuine collectors or speculating flippers alike. Since the seventies, I have been buying Watches, including Rolex, at discount or retail and have an excellent relationship with all my ADs, with no jewelry involved. I love the Rolex design language more than the horology, and that applies to all Brands and Pieces across the spectrum of my collection. If Rolex is perceived by others as a status symbol, not my problem, and holds value financially, I am even happier, then so be it. Over the years, I gave away and gifted many a Rolex to family and friends but never sold a single timepiece, and I am glad I never paid a premium for any either. 😉😊

Yeah, I agree.  Wearing them means they become a part of your life and daily story.  

Wow!  This is the first time I heard about someone giving Rolex's away.  Good for you man.  I give some of my Timex away, but that's a different story.  I know Paul Newman gave his daughter's boyfriend his Daytona and we all know how that turned out.

I've known (Swiss) people who got one as their first watch as a kid, when it was time to ride the school bus.

Current value is important as it informs price negotiations or if I should buy off the grey market. Future value isn’t a consideration if I buy at an appropriate price since I don’t want a -20% value reduction right off the bat.

I agree with your friend about Rolex not being high horology as I define that as a pursuit in making works of art, while Rolex’s success is predominantly based on tool watches. I do think they make great watches and the price is right at MSRP. At the end of the day, we are talking about luxury products, and you do need to pay a premium for the associations a brand name brings, so it’s up to the individual whether it’s worth it.

It has always been true that you could always turn a Rolex into quick cash.  Whether or not you made money depended on a few factors.  Mostly how long you held onto it.  Even in the 90s if you walked out of an AD and sold your Rolex you would lose money on the transaction.  Second hand watches were selling below retail.  Some models well below.  So the walking out of the AD having paid $5K and selling it for $30K is new.  Pretty much brand new.  

If I know it's just going to pass through (I've had a lot of watches not last more than a week or two), I do my best to get a good deal preowned so that I can pass it along without losing any $.

I only have 1 Rolex, and TBH, I wish it hadn't appreciated over the last few years.  I have no interest in selling it, and the hype just makes it harder to wear subtly.  

For a long time, before I got interested in watches, I perceived Rolex as kind of crass, and I had no real desire to own one. I did appreciate them as far as design goes, but had no interest in acquiring a status symbol.
 

Over time, as I learned more about the history of watches, my appreciation for them started to grow. To celebrate a big milestone, I did eventually buy an Explorer 114270. It seemed the least flashy Rolex, and I liked the 36 mm case size. I have to say, I do love the watch. It still brings me a little spark of joy when I put it on. It keeps great time, and is very robust, and the design is so iconic and versatile. It also flies well under the radar as I’ve never had a single person even look at my watch, much less say anything about it. 
 

As far as value retention goes, I’d be lying if I said it wasn’t at least part of my decision-making process. Or more accurately, it was how I helped justify the purchase to myself. I’m not wealthy, so spending that much money on a watch was pretty daunting, so knowing the watch would hold some of its value helped to soften that blow. 

I neither buy nor see watches as an investment. I buy them because I'm in love with them, their finish, design, history, complications, ...

So I totally agree that Rolex isn't on the same level as VC for example. 

However, I'm also not rich. So I just cannot afford to loose much money on a watch, and the more expensive the watch, the more money you can loose. So when I buy (or bought, I got one) an expensive watch, I kind of try to not loose much money. But I only buy watches that I like as watches and not because of their money-aspect. 

I always like to have a watch that holds SOME value, but if it has some depreciation, I'm fine. I look at the net profit/loss and then factor in what I'm paying to wear the watch while it's in the collection. 

Even losing several hundred dollars for many wears over the course of the year is better depreciation than you get from most goods. 

The couple Rolexes I've lucked into help finance other purchases and enjoyment in the hobby. 

IMHO, Rolex has perfected their design language, comfort, wearability, reliability, durability and accuracy all in one finely crafted package.  
 

Do they have great marketing?  Absolutely.  But they back it up with the tangible features of the product.  If it were all marketing, that would be discovered in due time and no amount of marketing can overcome a substandard product forever.

I think Rolex is priced right at it’s MSRP but not at used prices today. I don’t concern myself with value much.  If it were a factor, I would have certainly sold my Hulk at some point in the past year.  But I didn’t. I bought it to wear and it is a clearly well worn piece.  

I don’t put future value into my thinking when I buy a new watch. I want to buy pieces that are appealing to me and within my financial means. I suppose I’ll leave them to my daughter some day, and she can keep or sell them after I’m gone, but right now, my collection is for me to wear and enjoy. I’m not trying to get a ROI on my Bulova or Seiko. I bought them because I liked them. 

I got my Rolex for the love of the watch..not really thinking about its value going up. I would also not be bothered if the price goes down in the future as I'm never selling it. 

In my personal opinion the price of Rolex should be lower ( but then I always think watches should be cheaper so that I get more watches 😁)

VC, PP and AP are definitely much higher quality than Rolex. 

If one considers the past 5 years or so pretty new. I suppose in a long range view it is a “new” phenomenon. Heck 8 years ago I had a choice between 5 or so Submariners out of the case. Ah for those days to return. 😄 Wishful thinking I know.

yep, a wide selection at msrp, and a word of preowned at 20-30% off retail.  

[shot with yellowish light through a slightly vaseline smeared lens]  :-)

I have a few Rolexes in my collection, and as far as I'm concerned they are worth their MSRP, but certainly not worth the current secondary market prices. I certainly don't consider them high horology, but then again I don't consider any other watches in my collection as being high horology either. I tend to buy what appeals to me, but I also keep value retention in mind, and that makes Rolex a good choice when purchased new at MSRP. I personally prefer most of the offerings from Omega, however based on the way that they depreciate, it makes much more sense buying them pre-owned.

I just put you down on the waiting list, Sir! 😉😂

LMAO!  Thank you kind sir!