Market Crash or Correction?

I’ve been tracking a couple of Pepsis on chrono24 and in the last 2/3 weeks, the price has dropped from 19.5 to around 17.2. 
Still way more than I’m willing to pay but it’s definitely correcting. 

Yeah. When you see the charts for Rolex and the overall watch market, it's clearly trending down. 

TBH when I hear about used Rolex watches all selling over MSRP, I never thought of the Milgauss. I think there is/will be a crash, and that said crash is a correction.

Yeah I think the degree and severity of the correction will depend on the particular models, but maybe this feels like the canary in the coal mine. 

Let’s hope it continues falling. I’m never going to pay more than 20% over retail for a Pepsi (as it is a grail), and any other Rolex I’m not gonna pay a penny over MSRP.  
I’m generally anti-flipper but I will make an exception for that one watch haha. 

Last week, I walked into a Rolex AD. There was none of the arrogance I might have expected. They were very cordial. But there was more to it. I definitely got the feeling that they are sensing less demand. Worries about a future recession, the Chinese dumping their models. Once they realized I was a serious prospect, they were almost fighting over who would talk to me. 

I just went back through my emails...let's remember it was only in January 2020 that you could purchase a Rolex Milgauss for $6,700. I passed at the time as I thought that price was still a little too steep and not really much of a Rolex fan.

So when we think about prices crashing, I still think they have some way to go to get back the normalcy we saw only two years ago.

My AD told me they are expectinging sales of all luxury watches to drop for the foreseeable future.

That's why I'm in no hurry. Next year, I'm expecting better deals and more reasonable prices. Let's just get back to historical norms. 

I managed to buy 3 rolexes in the last 18 months all at retail. I refuse to pay over retail for watches. As much as I like Rolex, they are not worth over MSRP.

There is nothing more satisfying that having your name down with an AD. I am hugely patient and I can weight to pay MRP for my green day just.

Quick perusal of Chrono24 shows most milguass in 11 to 13k range 

So I’d say it’s a long long way still till it’s even close to retail.  

Tall cup of nope 👎 

Tech layoffs, crypto imploding, investors having lost millions and even billions (I think Amazon as a company has lost over a trillion in market valuation this year), I mean there is a market crash going on right now and a recession happening right now. That is why luxury watches are also dropping in value.

I also think the wristwatch in general is becoming a rarer and rarer sight and that will have impacts on the luxury watch market as well. Maybe that will be a longer decline but it's still coming

But they won't get people to pay those prices. You can list a watch for any amount

I don't see the crash happening yet but sooner or later there will be some other commodity that will be used for public display of wealth and success. On this day all of us old farts who still cling to obsolete technology will be able to buy below MRP.

That's indeed the issue. I'm not concerned about the market, but that the watch has become the status symbol of hipsters, the GQ crowd, and senior citizens. This is unlikely to sustain a luxury product in the long run.

Everytime I go out, I don't see anyone wearing watches nowadays. Oh wait, there's one Apple watch at least lol. 

At this point, I'm more surprised when people do wear a watch rather than not. 

They aren't worth that even.

I see a lot of watches on chrono24 offered at far less than the "average" sales price the graph shows.  I believe the vast bulk of sales being made are dealer to dealer to prop up inventory values.

I suspect the "real" price is 10-15% lower than asking.

I like to look at things in terms of how much gains an asset has “given back”. For example, Bitcoin and many stocks have given back close to 2 years worth of gains. I think the 2dary luxury watch market has given back about a year’s worth.

So what defines a “crash”? 80-90% loss? This is definitely a correction in progress. A crash (of the 2dary market) would be if they sell 30%-60% below retail.

Just checked the prices on a AD website and their comparable with other shops,but your are getting better service and guarantees