Rolex Makes HOW Many Watches Yearly?

good points! 

 A mill sounded massive to me as well, but mentally I was always just counting ~ 6 of their most popular models.  Defrayed among ~ 200 models it’s not so many watches.

Also explains why I’ve seen precisely zero Rolex’s at any AD, ever.  
Total unicorns. 
That said, one of my doc friends wears a several year old Submariner. After examining closely, I was pretty underwhelmed.  Was thinking ‘why is there so much hype for this?’ 

I've also heard/read that it's not really 1 million Rolex a year, it's a million Rolex + Tudor a year, which would make the Rolex supply even scarcer. But, as most information related to Rolex business, who knows if it's true or not?

Your math seems to add up and your conclusions make sense, but I still believe there is more to it than insufficient production causing scarcity at retail level.

...I still believe there is more to it than insufficient production causing scarcity at retail level.

I believe you are correct; this is just one piece of the puzzle. 

Good discussion. As a private company/charity it will always be impossible to know unless one gets insider info, which just isn’t happening at Rolex given their privacy protocols. 

To start, there are way more variants than accounted for. For example, currently, there are over 700 DateJust variants. If you go to the “Find your <insert model>“ page you will find the Datejust has 53 pages. At about 14 models a page. That is a staggering amount, which is why they are one of the easier models to get.

I’ve read counts as low as 750k a year to as high as 1.2. Many of the assumptions we hear are based on accounts from ADs, or former ADs. Based on what some ordering leads for major chains have shared, it seems it is largely dependent on product line vs individual variant. It stands to reason a line with more variants would take a greater percentage of overall allocation. As you mentioned, many variants are limited in availability. As a result, the accepted logic Is they get significantly more Datejusts and OPs than other lines. DayDates, while variant heavy, are rarer given they are PM.

Datejust has 53 pages. At about 14 models a page. 

WOW, I could have sworn I got to the end of that page, but guess not. That makes each individual variant significantly less likely to be produced in a given year. 🤯

Megabob, I would bet watches, like cars, are hoarded. The top 1% of car collectors control most of the elite car inventory. The next couple percent, the majority of the rest.  Some may buy their allocation just to keep VIP status, I know I fall into that trap and I’m a very small fish comparatively.

At this point of watches becoming investment vehicles, I bet there are a lot of rich people that have watches; they just don't wear them. They are secured in a vault or a safe. 

The smart wealthy people do not flaunt their wealth. Take the Kim Kardashian Paris robbery. One of the convicted was recently released from prison and gave an interview that basically said they planned the robbery from her flaunting on social media accounts. She's nouveau riche, not old money rich. She's since learned of course, but old money knows how to not flaunt and buying a watch as an investment and not showing it off in public seems like what an old money person would do. 

Just my two cents. 

The long story short is that lots of newly wealthy people in China are buying Rolexes:

https://daxueconsulting.com/rolex-china-chinese-luxury-watch-market/

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/14/fashion/watches-china-swiss-export-leader.html

China has a lot of people, and the collectors are starting from scratch.

@Fieldwalker "That said, one of my doc friends wears a several year old Submariner. After examining closely, I was pretty underwhelmed.  Was thinking ‘why is there so much hype for this?’"

Heavy marketing, and showing off to your non-watch friends that "you've made it." Why do people pay thousands of dollars to see Adele or Celine Dion or The Strolling Bones in a concert? 

I heard this a couple years ago and it really kicked into my head that these are mass-produced items and not ne-plus-ultra rarities of Rolls Royce exclusiveness.

Anyway, it's a gargantuan number only offset by the fact that the production always lags behind demand.  If I'm googling correctly, here are about 300K Toyota Camry models sold annually in the US. Those things are everywhere. I'd guess that about a quarter of Rolex production ends up in the US, so those are very equivalent numbers. 

Then again, I was expecting AP to have Aston Martin levels of production (a dozen or more per week!) but I think they're in the tens of thousands too. 

I don't know whether the 1M watch number includes Tudor or not but the Morgan Stanley chart which people often use to extrapolate Rolex's 1M production number includes Tudor separately at #15. Whatever the case, Rolex makes a ton of watches and lapped the Swiss field many times in terms of sales (4x bigger than #2).  https://watchesbysjx.com/2022/03/morgan-stanley-watch-industry-report-2022.html

1 million watches and you can't have one until you buy an IWC from us.  LMAO !  Only tools buy Rolex under these circumstances.

I always aspired to own a Sub, but seeing the way Rolex works and what people go through to get one is just degrading and it really sours me on them and their watches. I better develop a more affordable and easier to obtain watch-crush. 

Never realised there were more varieties of Daytona, than OP, Sub, GMT Combined. 😲

Dont forget Rolex own's Tudor and they make as many watches as they want or the market can support. I have more a few Rolex's but even I cannot get offers a new watch and when I do buy one from oversea my local AD gets Piss*d off !!!! 

As revealing as this revelation of prodigiousness is, a Rolex is still one of the few watch brands I do not, or concievably will not, aspire to own. 

I found this article byJack Forster pretty informative because it goes into very thing... Are There Too Few Rolex Or Too Many Millionaires via Hodinkee. Cutting to the chase is how Jack ends the article, "But at least as far as the shortage goes, it seems to me that why we have one is pretty clear. More than ever, recent headwinds notwithstanding, there are more people than ever who want what fine watchmaking has to offer and are willing and able to pay for it."

I know well enough that Rolex produces 1m watches per year when purchasing my first one. I’ve never seen it as a luxury product, but they are genius in marketing and inventory control.

Some grey market watch dealers who have direct connection with Rolex need to get a bunch of less desired watches (like 28mm two tone datejusts with diamonds), in order to purchase 1 hot model.

I don’t know the exact no. of watches being produced per model, but I’m sure they can sell most of them.

Great analysis. One thing that’s often left out is consideration of the volume of watches produced “off catalogue”. Ie all the crazy dial / precious metal / baguette diamond / celeb focused pieces that will never be made available at retail. Think eye of the tiger or leopard daytonas, special edition datejusts for the Saudi market etc etc. 

Complete stab in the dark but I wonder if about 10-20%of their production is for pieces that most consumers will never see / know about. That’s a whole market by itself. 

It's even more interesting when you remember that Rolex is owned by a Swiss private family trust organisation - the Hans Wilsdorf Trust. The trustees are not owners or shareholders, they are only custodians. As trustees, they don't benefit financially. "Excess profits" are supposed to be donated to charities, but what is retained or reinvested into Rolex and Tudor is unknown. 

So Rolex is owned by nobody, and sucks huge amounts of wealth from all over the world in exchange for fine watches. The real secret is just how much money they have retained over the decades and how many people may have benefitted from their charitable donations. 

That was supposed to be a post for another day! JK!

Great points.

I don't remember where I read this or where I heard it but it has been said somewhere that it is suspected up to 50% of those 1MIL are ladies DateJust models.  It is their largest selling watch. 

If so, is it because the AD's are pushing purchases of ladies DateJust's to get on the waiting list for a men's DD/DJ/Sub/Daytona/etc.?

I know, I know, cart before the horse...

I think they said it is consistently one of the best sellers so I don't think so.  Usually they are pushing jewelry because their margins are way higher.  

I was once told a long while back what was so special about Rolex watches that it was put together all hand made by a group of special people just like the old Rolls Royces. And I said how can that be able to come up with such a massive amount like that? There some groups like celebrities and rich people have all these high end watches spend more time in a vault box than on there wrist. For them its all investment thats a good information point you found there still learning why enjoying this wonderful hobby.