Predictions for 2024?
What (reasonably realistic) predictions to do we have for 2024? New color ways of existing models don’t count 😄
Here’re mine:
Omega’s Spirate system: Omega will start propagating their Spirate system to new watches. The Online Watch Community will bemoan how large and expensive they are though. As a nod to people who want smaller watches, they’ll introduce a Seamaster 37 or 38, and update the Speedmaster 38 to have a METAS-certified movement (and increase the price by $1K while they’re at it)
Rolex will be business as usual: The big introduction will be an expansion of the 1908 line. If I had to guess on a new sports model, I think a new Explorer II of some sort. Most models will still be unavailable for walk-in, but they’ll be more available; like - come back in a week’s time.
Bremont: This is less of a prediction since their new CEO has flat out said so - Bremont will entirely refresh their line, drastically simplifying it. The prediction part is that it’ll be compelling.
Prices over all: Price increases will be few and far between. We won’t see any price reductions - other than Bremont, which their CEO is saying he wants to achieve - but we’ll see cheaper models come out and discounts at AD’s will go back to the 15-20% range with minimal haggling for most but the Rolex/Patek/AP’s of the world
My big prediction - 2024 will be the year of Quartz. We’re going to see a lot more quartz watches from high end brands, especially solar quartz. Tag Heuer seems to be having success with their Solargraph, and Cartier with their Tank Solar Beat. A lot more will follow suit. A new X-33 from Omega? A solarchrono Carrera Glassbox? High end watches with high frequency quartz? A Grand Seiko solar quartz? I’m kind of excited to see what happens here.
If divers wear dive watches, and pilots wear pilot watches, who wears tool watches? 😉
Interesting topic to consider. I can get behind your predictions.
For me, I hope that Omega considers a refresh to the SMP 300, especially the bracelet.
I wouldn't be surprised if Rolex discontinued the Sprite. I could see the Batman being discontinued in favor of a new colorway; Coke or something else? I think that the Pepsi GMT will continue to be available.
There will be more deals in 24 because of the world wide economic instability. The Chinese were big buyers of the luxury watch market and their economy is shrinking. The North American market should not be as affected. Smaller watch sizes will be pushed along with pastel dials. Boomers are retiring and will pull back from the market while the millenials and Xers are a smaller population not as interested in the traditional watches.
Secondary market prices drops or dare I say crash in some instances.
1) Rolex will be available for walk in buys (except the actually rare stuff)
2) The only flipping going on will be former grey dealers at McDonalds where they belong
3) Longines will be 🔥🔥🔥
4) Tudor interest will crash as Rolex will be obtainable
5) Grand Seiko introduces a micro adjust bracelet
Even Paul Thorpe (who i generally can’t stand) kinda agrees with the Rolex predictions
https://youtu.be/oymUSAssL_k?si=OI20AaVaY1aKgSJ4
GMTs will finally be played out
1) Rolex will be available for walk in buys (except the actually rare stuff)
2) The only flipping going on will be former grey dealers at McDonalds where they belong
3) Longines will be 🔥🔥🔥
4) Tudor interest will crash as Rolex will be obtainable
5) Grand Seiko introduces a micro adjust bracelet
Even Paul Thorpe (who i generally can’t stand) kinda agrees with the Rolex predictions
https://youtu.be/oymUSAssL_k?si=OI20AaVaY1aKgSJ4
If 4 means good deals on Tudor I could get on board with that.
Micro brands will continue to create some of the most interesting and excellent quality watches at great price points.
If 4 means good deals on Tudor I could get on board with that.
Definitely discounted for sure. Their 2023 hype pieces all sat in the windows unsold recently.
I'm all for quartz getting a bit of the spotlight! I predict, or at least hope for, a 37-38mm PRX.
Tudor will reissue it's Big Block chronograph and update it's heritage models like the Monte Carlo and Homeplate.
Tudor will reissue it's Big Block chronograph and update it's heritage models like the Monte Carlo and Homeplate.
Would love to see the Big Block be re-issued 💯
Ah, that would be the Bregatch!
The long awaited Breguet-Swatch collaboration!
😁
1) Rolex will be available for walk in buys (except the actually rare stuff)
2) The only flipping going on will be former grey dealers at McDonalds where they belong
3) Longines will be 🔥🔥🔥
4) Tudor interest will crash as Rolex will be obtainable
5) Grand Seiko introduces a micro adjust bracelet
Even Paul Thorpe (who i generally can’t stand) kinda agrees with the Rolex predictions
https://youtu.be/oymUSAssL_k?si=OI20AaVaY1aKgSJ4
Ha, a head to head prediction! We’ll see which of us is right. 😄 My guess is that unless an AD thinks they’re certain they’ll lose the sale, they’ll want to keep the air of exclusivity and not have any ‘in stock’ but will very consistently be calling customers a week or three after a customer registers interest to tell them that their watch is in.
Ah, that would be the Bregatch!
The long awaited Breguet-Swatch collaboration!
😁
I think you’re probably right. I honestly can’t think of another likely Swatch collab that would mean anything other than either a Type XX x Swatch or Seamaster x Swatch.
Micro brands will continue to create some of the most interesting and excellent quality watches at great price points.
Is carrying on the status quo really a prediction? 😂
That’s one of the most optimistic predictions I’ve seen yet: that people online will have the capacity for self reflection and shame! 😂
TBH I'm seeing this already at some of the monthly watch gatherings I attend. Many are bringing more watches to sell while expressing new interests elsewhere and others are laughing about some of the cringy content they were hooked on during isolation. Some private FB watch groups are also winding down with the majority of new members being sellers rather than collectors.
As always though YMMV.
Personally, I prefer the Speedmaster 38 (especially the Orvis edition) to the Moonwatch, too. In addition to everything you mention, a big thing for me is the thinner tachymeter bezel. The biggest negative is that it’s a bit thick relative to its diameter, so the proportions aren’t quite right enough for me. If they did a METAS-certified Speedy 38 and somehow slimmed a millimeter or so, it’d be pretty perfect.
Though predicting that Omega would release a thinner watch than the previous edition is pretty outlandish 😄
Yeh dont get our hopes up on the thickness being reduced for 2024 😁
TBH I'm seeing this already at some of the monthly watch gatherings I attend. Many are bringing more watches to sell while expressing new interests elsewhere and others are laughing about some of the cringy content they were hooked on during isolation. Some private FB watch groups are also winding down with the majority of new members being sellers rather than collectors.
As always though YMMV.
Yeah, I think you’re spot on with the change in the market driving a lot of speculators and arbitrageurs out of the hobby. It’ll make for a quieter online community, but hopefully a better one.
Yeah, I think you’re spot on with the change in the market driving a lot of speculators and arbitrageurs out of the hobby. It’ll make for a quieter online community, but hopefully a better one.
Right? Newbies though often bring an energy and enthusiasm that can enhance the environment so I hope that a constant flow of those continues.
Whether it be a car show or watch gathering many Regulars appreciate someone new coming up to rave about their car or their watch and extending the type of validation about their hobby that they perhaps don't get elsewhere.
Many groups struggle to stay relevant because new members don't feel welcome and the organization stagnates. Give me a newbie anyday over someone who is too cool or jaded to be enthused anymore.
Blue pelagos 39!
Seiko will introduce a 37-38mm Seiko 5 GMT. Maybe orient puts out an in house kamasu style gmt too.
Would love if Tissot released the gentleman in a 36-38mm case. While we’re at it the new Longines Conquest in 38 or 39mm.
Are you sure? The Black Bay 54 and Pelagos 39 have both been in short supply, in the SF Bay Area. Even when I was in Tokyo in September, none of the Tudor AD’s and boutiques I visited had one in stock.
Okay. You make a really good caveat there that I didn’t think of. *Geo dependent*
Certainly in the U.K. this was the case up until the last few weeks in dealers up and down the country, as documented on social media, and from my own eyes. Walked past the window last week and stock looked lower because of Xmas. But I full expect them to be back sat there, unsold in January.
Ha, a head to head prediction! We’ll see which of us is right. 😄 My guess is that unless an AD thinks they’re certain they’ll lose the sale, they’ll want to keep the air of exclusivity and not have any ‘in stock’ but will very consistently be calling customers a week or three after a customer registers interest to tell them that their watch is in.
I think what you say here is exactly how 2024 will start and carry on for a bit… but they can’t escape the reality of the situation that’s being driven by lack of demand due to all the various economic factors at play.
It will ultimately come down to savvy customers knowing the market and where they can get the best deals.
Cash rich customers will have the whip hand. Those reliant on 0% finance to fund their purchase might still find themselves having to jump thru smaller BS hoops.
Would love to see mire high end mechaquartz as I feel that would be a great middle ground for many
39mm Emplorer II 🙏
Smaller watches will continue to gain popularity. Rolex will increase its market share without selling many more watches. A Chinese manufacturers will buy an existing Swiss microbrand and start calling their watches Swiss made by fitting the bracelets in Sweden before despatch and obviously getting rave reviews from YouTubers.
I just want an updated re release of the 2254. A Co-axial Peter Blake. 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻
Imo, I would prefer it to be every two years instead of this constant overturn. But maybe 1 is enough time?
I’m looking forward to the Spirate being better. But I would also like to see Omega collaborate with Roger Smith and work on his single-wheel Co-axial together.
Mine: more neat, modern Vostoks that people will massively sleep on, just like the colorful Neptun GMTs and Chernobyl watch from last year
Yeh dont get our hopes up on the thickness being reduced for 2024 😁
That's what my bathroom scales said...
Fortis will introduce something new in 2024… (again)