The End of the Watch World as We Know It
There is a question that has bothering me for a long time.
What if one day smartwatches could do the same things that a cellphone does?
Let me explain myself. Technology wise, I believe this is the next logical step, calling and texting directly from a smartwatch without having it paired to a cellphone. There are many other functions that could be performed in a smartwatch to replace a cellphone. Many people use their smartwatch to pay or for health purposes. It's obvious that the cellphone industry it's pushing for this not to ever happen, as it would cut their sells.
In the hypothetical scenario where a smartwatch becomes a need instead of commodity, it would probably devastate the watch industry, specially mechanical watches, just like the quartz crisis did or could be even worst. Watch companies will go bankrupt and watches will greatly depreciate.
What would you do in such scenario? Would you resist and keep using your watch? Would you use two watches ? One in each wrist.
I would love read your comments.
Welcome to my WatchCrunch profile.
Short answer. No.
If there's people willing to buy then watches will always exist.
Obviously markets change but it's highly unlikely smart watches will replace phones anytime soon.
Their batteries are far too small. They are useless for visual entertainment. And most functions are just very awkward or impossible. From a calculator to reading the web. Basically it's a huge pain in the ass.
Even if in 200 years we're all using invisible floating tablet phones. There will probably be 50 billion people and huge advancements in manufacturing. More than enough to keep the watch industry alive.
Plus you'll probably just press a button and print your own titanium watch.
Also keep in mind that we currently already all have phones in our pockets and yet there's many companies selling watches in the tens or hundreds of millions.
I'd guesstimate that at least a billion people wear a non smart watch. It's too big of an industry to disappear anytime soon.
But what might happen is smart watches might become so awesome that they won't replace the phone but they'll replace the watch.
It won't fully kill mechanical watches. That's too big of a hobby.
But when they are tough, affordable and no longer need charging, they could replace the everyday man's watch.
We're already getting close if you don't mind limited functionality.
If Apple can solve the battery issue and software compatibility and make eliminate planned obsolescence, then we might have a discussion. Unfortunately it’s not in their best interest to make a product that lasts.
A great example of this is the Instant Pot. They made such a great product that they put themselves out of business because no one needed to buy a new one.
I’ll keep my phone, can’t read the Apple Watch.
My wife’s Apple Watch already does everything a cell phone will do without being paired.
The issue. Internet and pics are too small on the screen. That is not a problem likely to be solved.
Your question brings this to mind...
LOL
The watch screens are too small to completely take over for a smart phone, BUT, I wouldn't hate it if smartwatches were for calls/SMS only and I could have a phablet for my apps that used the watch's connection to get internet.
That way if I wanted to leave the phablet behind, I could and still be reached.
When smart phones can monitor blood sugar, it's game over. Apple and others are working on this. Once the health metrics become so good that they are impossible to ignore, then we will transition.
Of course some people will still wear mechanical watches as jewelry, but that'll be the expectation not the rule.
Your question brings this to mind...
LOL
The watch screens are too small to completely take over for a smart phone, BUT, I wouldn't hate it if smartwatches were for calls/SMS only and I could have a phablet for my apps that used the watch's connection to get internet.
That way if I wanted to leave the phablet behind, I could and still be reached.
I was about to make this very point. I wasn't going to mention p0rn, but whatever.
It's not the end of the world for watches because it kind of already happened. Watchmakers just pushed upmarket to target a different segment: luxury, enthusiast, jewelry, or whatever you want to call it.
In 2015, when the Apple Watch first launched, 28.1 million Swiss watches were sold. In 2022, only 15.1 million Swiss watches were sold (more than 40% decline). Despite this, Swiss watch brands recorded record profits because they all did what we hate: pushed pricing upmarket targeting a different segment of the market and it worked tremendously (which means we can expect this to continue).
Our hobby will survive because luxury/ jewelry buyers (whether you appreciate the finer things in life or dress to impress), enthusiasts (all of us) and luddites will always pony up and buy watches if we have the cash. The rest are buying smartwatches or just using their phones.
It's ok, I'm sure something else will come along and displace smartwatches (or even phones). It's not that people particularly like them: they're tools (like some of the stainless steel watches we adore). Maybe then, there will be enthusiasts who collect smartwatches (nah, never happen).
In the unlikely event that they totally solve the power issue; maybe have a larger, wider smartwatch whose entire case including the non-removable band is a solar panel, and can get it to an efficiency level to where it could replace the phone without needing charging- that may well severely impact traditional watches. Those events are far, far off if they're ever coming though.
Isn't smartwatch is just glorify quartz watch, unless you want to use phone with tiny screen so smartwatch not gonna replace phone, and it not gonna replace normal quartz watch either because battery, price and the watch it self doesnt last very long compare to simple quartz and for mechanical watch i dont think people buy mechanical watch for practical reason so maybe market for mechanical maybe sink little bit
To me, smartwatches compete with smartphones and not *our watches*. I don't think a smartwatch will have a display, battery and camera module capable to replace a smartphone within the next 15 years, so I don't feel concerned for my watch collection.
I already wear two watches, but the "second" watch isn't a full smart watch. It's my Garmin running watch, but I like that it tracks my Heart Rate, Steps, Stairs, Steps etc.
Let's remember that smartwatch sales already completely eclipse mechanical watch sales. And yet the mechanical watch industry prevails. Yes, used prices have taken a hit very recently, but overall, the industry has never been more bouyant.
I'm not concerned about smartwatches. I have a tiny concern over the ability to service these mechanicals, as the job of watchmaker becomes ever more niche, or confined to the OEMs only.
How you gonna send nudes on a watch?
Who amongst us solely wears a mechanical watch to tell the time? Point is, there are many reasons, practical or otherwise, why people wear watches and it is for this reason, that they still have relevance.
Aren’t we connected enough already. I hope that day never comes where technology is stuck to your wrist. Tech’s great and it does make life earlier. But I carry 2 iPhones and iPad most days for work that doesn’t include the laptop. I’m around tech all day. I don’t enjoy it, I’m also bad at it and I’m ok with being bad at it. I don’t like getting 2 VM, 3 text and an email if I don’t pick up. Connecting that to my wrist forget about. That’s why I love the simplicity of a watch. I does one or two things reasonably well and it looks good. But the best thing a watch does is remind me to get unplugged, relax and slow down. I’m all for technology but I like it at a distance.
Yeah, pretty sure Apple sells a watch that functions as a separate phone as well. Just adds a line to your existing plan.
Our watches as accessories or jewelry cannot be replaced. Currently, many people have already replaced the mechanical or quartz watch with the smart watch, but tasteful consumers who like watches like us in this community is still large. A smart watch would never fully replace the smartphone because of the screen size. What could really replace the smartphone in the future are smart glasses or “smart contact lenses”. Apple has already started this, but the glasses are still horrible and giants.
How you gonna send nudes on a watch?
How you could ENJOY a nude on a smartwatch?
How you could ENJOY a nude on a smartwatch?
I’m sure people will find a way..
Crazy idea, they create something similar to the Springdrive or the Ecodrive, that could produce enough energy to keep itself running.
Short answer. No.
If there's people willing to buy then watches will always exist.
Obviously markets change but it's highly unlikely smart watches will replace phones anytime soon.
Their batteries are far too small. They are useless for visual entertainment. And most functions are just very awkward or impossible. From a calculator to reading the web. Basically it's a huge pain in the ass.
Even if in 200 years we're all using invisible floating tablet phones. There will probably be 50 billion people and huge advancements in manufacturing. More than enough to keep the watch industry alive.
Plus you'll probably just press a button and print your own titanium watch.
I would love to print my own Titanium watch
But what might happen is smart watches might become so awesome that they won't replace the phone but they'll replace the watch.
It won't fully kill mechanical watches. That's too big of a hobby.
But when they are tough, affordable and no longer need charging, they could replace the everyday man's watch.
We're already getting close if you don't mind limited functionality.
What I love the most of the G Shock is carrying it without worrying about damaging it.
If Apple can solve the battery issue and software compatibility and make eliminate planned obsolescence, then we might have a discussion. Unfortunately it’s not in their best interest to make a product that lasts.
A great example of this is the Instant Pot. They made such a great product that they put themselves out of business because no one needed to buy a new one.
I don't think Apple will ever do it. It would be another company trying to kill Apple.
It's not the end of the world for watches because it kind of already happened. Watchmakers just pushed upmarket to target a different segment: luxury, enthusiast, jewelry, or whatever you want to call it.
In 2015, when the Apple Watch first launched, 28.1 million Swiss watches were sold. In 2022, only 15.1 million Swiss watches were sold (more than 40% decline). Despite this, Swiss watch brands recorded record profits because they all did what we hate: pushed pricing upmarket targeting a different segment of the market and it worked tremendously (which means we can expect this to continue).
Our hobby will survive because luxury/ jewelry buyers (whether you appreciate the finer things in life or dress to impress), enthusiasts (all of us) and luddites will always pony up and buy watches if we have the cash. The rest are buying smartwatches or just using their phones.
It's ok, I'm sure something else will come along and displace smartwatches (or even phones). It's not that people particularly like them: they're tools (like some of the stainless steel watches we adore). Maybe then, there will be enthusiasts who collect smartwatches (nah, never happen).
Is nice to see the numbers. If brands keep pushing the prices up they will continue to lower their sales and affordable watch brands will displace them.
I don’t think so. There are plenty of people who also won’t use a smart watch because they have a phone and don’t see the point. The phone really replaced a function for a watch for many people. The smart watch introduced something on the wrist again. For me and (I’m gonna take a stab in the dark here as it is completely anecdotal) probably many others, got them into watches. The next step in computing is likely AR through glasses. I can see that replacing the phone, not a watch. I think the smart watch will remain a health focused device but I can see it die off as a product once AR is functional and affordable.
Same for me, my bad experience with a smartwatch helped me to find mechanical watches.
Aren’t we connected enough already. I hope that day never comes where technology is stuck to your wrist. Tech’s great and it does make life earlier. But I carry 2 iPhones and iPad most days for work that doesn’t include the laptop. I’m around tech all day. I don’t enjoy it, I’m also bad at it and I’m ok with being bad at it. I don’t like getting 2 VM, 3 text and an email if I don’t pick up. Connecting that to my wrist forget about. That’s why I love the simplicity of a watch. I does one or two things reasonably well and it looks good. But the best thing a watch does is remind me to get unplugged, relax and slow down. I’m all for technology but I like it at a distance.
I don't like being connected or reachable 24/7 neither. I hate when I talk to someone and all of the sudden they are looking at their smartwatch reading a notification or something.
If vinyl records could come back, watches have nothing to worry about.
Aren’t we connected enough already. I hope that day never comes where technology is stuck to your wrist. Tech’s great and it does make life earlier. But I carry 2 iPhones and iPad most days for work that doesn’t include the laptop. I’m around tech all day. I don’t enjoy it, I’m also bad at it and I’m ok with being bad at it. I don’t like getting 2 VM, 3 text and an email if I don’t pick up. Connecting that to my wrist forget about. That’s why I love the simplicity of a watch. I does one or two things reasonably well and it looks good. But the best thing a watch does is remind me to get unplugged, relax and slow down. I’m all for technology but I like it at a distance.
I somewhat like computers and tech when they're used for fun - Videos, games, forums, etc. It's when they're used for work where it all breaks down. I do not like my medical record, banking, or my state's electrical grid anywhere near a computer. The only thing any computer should ever replace is last year's computer. And I'm wondering if it's a misspelling when you said Tech makes "life earlier." I'm thinking you meant "easier"? But in my experience, tech does sort of make life earlier. It allows the work to hit the desk much faster. It doesn't usually help me do it any faster.