New GS LE SBGY009

Another beautiful piece for GS. I wonder if @HotWatchChick69 has already confirmed his order. I mean, it鈥檚 a LE spring drive, so my guess is yes.聽

But in all seriousness, the dials GS produce are just other worldly. And this one is only 10.5mm thick with the power reserve indicator on the back.聽

If only it had a date window, it would be perfect 馃槈

Gorgeous!!! Can鈥檛 continue reading about GS new releases, can鈥檛 keep on wanting to buy new watches 馃槀

nice watch. i think it is better this way, no date window cleaner dial. and power reserve indicator in the back? its perfect

Actually love the fact it has no date window makes it nice and symmetrical but yes I agree 100% yes @HotWatchChick69 probably has one already but sworN to secrecy not to post before release date and 聽YEs the DiAl鈥檚 are other worldly!!聽

Ichibunz

Actually love the fact it has no date window makes it nice and symmetrical but yes I agree 100% yes @HotWatchChick69 probably has one already but sworN to secrecy not to post before release date and 聽YEs the DiAl鈥檚 are other worldly!!聽

I mostly made the date comment to get people worked up :-)聽

No, no more watches for me for a while. 聽Reasoning below...

Prices of luxury goods always fall significantly when a recession hits. 聽Everyone begins selling off marginal assets in order to try to shore up balance sheets. 聽Heck, I, myself, am already beginning to cash hoard, and have put a stop to all marginal spending! 聽Beyond that, check out the below chart - it's the nominal 10-2 yield curve. 聽I know, I know... 聽everyone uses the 10-2 real yield curve, blah, blah, blah. 聽And we could have a 6 hour debate as to which is more appropriate and why, and then we'd get into a fist fight over the importance of rational expectations, money illusion, fiscal versus monetary effects, transmission effects, etc., etc., etc. 聽Suffice it to say, the summer before the contraction in GDP in 2020, the 10-2 nominal yield curve dipped below zero to -0.04%. 聽Today, the nominal 10-2 yield curve is at -0.19%. 聽Hence, my cash hoarding and the end to all my discretionary spending!

Image
HotWatchChick69

No, no more watches for me for a while. 聽Reasoning below...

Prices of luxury goods always fall significantly when a recession hits. 聽Everyone begins selling off marginal assets in order to try to shore up balance sheets. 聽Heck, I, myself, am already beginning to cash hoard, and have put a stop to all marginal spending! 聽Beyond that, check out the below chart - it's the nominal 10-2 yield curve. 聽I know, I know... 聽everyone uses the 10-2 real yield curve, blah, blah, blah. 聽And we could have a 6 hour debate as to which is more appropriate and why, and then we'd get into a fist fight over the importance of rational expectations, money illusion, fiscal versus monetary effects, transmission effects, etc., etc., etc. 聽Suffice it to say, the summer before the contraction in GDP in 2020, the 10-2 nominal yield curve dipped below zero to -0.04%. 聽Today, the nominal 10-2 yield curve is at -0.19%. 聽Hence, my cash hoarding and the end to all my discretionary spending!

Image

So, you're saying this is a good time to look for good gray market pricing for luxury watches?聽

BigIona

So, you're saying this is a good time to look for good gray market pricing for luxury watches?聽

I'm saying that I'm definitely waiting for some time before buying any more watches. 聽I ain't got a crystal ball, but just take a look at asset markets the last time the U.S. went through a massive bout of inflation. 聽How did the economy do? 聽How long did it take for the Fed to finally act and get things under control? 聽How did they get it under control and what happened to people's finances and livelihoods? 聽What incentives were in place then for the Fed to allow massive inflation? 聽Are those same incentives in place today? 聽Why did it take so long for Powell to act? 聽Etc., etc.

With regard to watches, @Edge168n and I were chatting, and he said it best (none of which constitutes financial advice, yadda, yadda...)

Right now, I'm trying to frame things in terms of decision theory, particularly because we are talking about potentially trading appreciating assets for depreciating ones. Watches, especially non Rolex ones in a recessionary scenario, are depreciating assets. The market, at these levels, is almost certainly an appreciating one over most multi-year periods. So currently, I've suspended all big watch purchases to throw into the market. You only get a bear market every ten years or so, so I figure it's as good a time to deploy as it gets. And if the watch market gets cratered, then all the better. The used deals will be ridiculous and we might be better off picking up half a dozen submariners as trade in fodder for later from crypto bros.

HotWatchChick69

I'm saying that I'm definitely waiting for some time before buying any more watches. 聽I ain't got a crystal ball, but just take a look at asset markets the last time the U.S. went through a massive bout of inflation. 聽How did the economy do? 聽How long did it take for the Fed to finally act and get things under control? 聽How did they get it under control and what happened to people's finances and livelihoods? 聽What incentives were in place then for the Fed to allow massive inflation? 聽Are those same incentives in place today? 聽Why did it take so long for Powell to act? 聽Etc., etc.

With regard to watches, @Edge168n and I were chatting, and he said it best (none of which constitutes financial advice, yadda, yadda...)

Right now, I'm trying to frame things in terms of decision theory, particularly because we are talking about potentially trading appreciating assets for depreciating ones. Watches, especially non Rolex ones in a recessionary scenario, are depreciating assets. The market, at these levels, is almost certainly an appreciating one over most multi-year periods. So currently, I've suspended all big watch purchases to throw into the market. You only get a bear market every ten years or so, so I figure it's as good a time to deploy as it gets. And if the watch market gets cratered, then all the better. The used deals will be ridiculous and we might be better off picking up half a dozen submariners as trade in fodder for later from crypto bros.

Its in times like these I鈥檓 glad I choose security over salary and decided to work for the Federal Government. No industry is safe, but there tends to be more stability in the public sector. Well, at least in the Defense Department.聽

So @HotWatchChick69 are you now saying that luxury watches are discretionary purchases? I thought these were staples like food and shelter! Mind blown!聽

HotWatchChick69

I'm saying that I'm definitely waiting for some time before buying any more watches. 聽I ain't got a crystal ball, but just take a look at asset markets the last time the U.S. went through a massive bout of inflation. 聽How did the economy do? 聽How long did it take for the Fed to finally act and get things under control? 聽How did they get it under control and what happened to people's finances and livelihoods? 聽What incentives were in place then for the Fed to allow massive inflation? 聽Are those same incentives in place today? 聽Why did it take so long for Powell to act? 聽Etc., etc.

With regard to watches, @Edge168n and I were chatting, and he said it best (none of which constitutes financial advice, yadda, yadda...)

Right now, I'm trying to frame things in terms of decision theory, particularly because we are talking about potentially trading appreciating assets for depreciating ones. Watches, especially non Rolex ones in a recessionary scenario, are depreciating assets. The market, at these levels, is almost certainly an appreciating one over most multi-year periods. So currently, I've suspended all big watch purchases to throw into the market. You only get a bear market every ten years or so, so I figure it's as good a time to deploy as it gets. And if the watch market gets cratered, then all the better. The used deals will be ridiculous and we might be better off picking up half a dozen submariners as trade in fodder for later from crypto bros.

Keep our bedroom talk private! 馃槈馃槝馃槈

But I cop to it. Yes, I have suspended all major watch purchases (call it anything over a thousand dollars). 聽Honestly, I am evaluating selling watches that I wear less, not because I need the cash, but because from an asset allocation perspective you should always take the overvalued asset (any Rolex) and push it into the undervalued asset (the market).

I do run a hedge fund and so appropriate caveats on this not being real financial advice, but I look at there being two real outcomes to all this (over any reasonably longish timescale).

  1. Market goes back up, we are relatively price insensitive to high watch prices because we are all a bit richer.
  2. Market stays shitty, watch prices necessarily fall because of wealth destruction (and they fall more than market because there's no productive asset spitting out cash underlying the value, just collective belief) , we get to salve our relative poverty with cheaper watches.

I've been collecting long enough to remember when you could buy Rolexes at a discount from authorized dealers. 聽I remember when people hated the Steve McQueen submariner because it felt too light on the wrist (and it was selling at maybe $5-7K). 聽Watches could very well be something that is secularly growing (more people wear luxury watches than before, I acknowledge this) but that doesn't mean that things can't be intensely cyclical at the same time. 聽I feel like this is a completely uncontroversial statement, but I get into odd arguments all the time about this.

At any rate, my general take is...if you have a watch on your mind that you were going to buy anyway, nothing should really change things. 聽The deals are probably going to get better. 聽But I wouldn't specifically ramp up my search in order to take advantage of it because there's actual, real assets that can go up you can put money down on.

This watch looks beautiful in the photos. Would love to see it in person.聽

Ichibunz

Actually love the fact it has no date window makes it nice and symmetrical but yes I agree 100% yes @HotWatchChick69 probably has one already but sworN to secrecy not to post before release date and 聽YEs the DiAl鈥檚 are other worldly!!聽

I think it's likely that this watch will just look like a normal sunray blue in most lighting, pics. 聽It will look really cool up close or under a macro lens, but a lot of the darker, textured dials they do, just kind of look like the main color in most lighting.

TimeEQ

I think it's likely that this watch will just look like a normal sunray blue in most lighting, pics. 聽It will look really cool up close or under a macro lens, but a lot of the darker, textured dials they do, just kind of look like the main color in most lighting.

100% accurate in the case of my SLGH009. I feel like the texture is a secret between me and my watch.聽

BigIona

100% accurate in the case of my SLGH009. I feel like the texture is a secret between me and my watch.聽

I had the SBGM241, done for Watches of Switzerland in British Racing Green, not only was the dial texture difficult to see, it looked black in most lighting. 聽When it was in the right light, it looked stunning, but most of the time it was just okay and somewhat dissapointing. Ended up selling it off for a lighter color GS (SBGW277) and I get to see appreciate the color and texture way more.

TimeEQ

I think it's likely that this watch will just look like a normal sunray blue in most lighting, pics. 聽It will look really cool up close or under a macro lens, but a lot of the darker, textured dials they do, just kind of look like the main color in most lighting.

yes For normal people but we are not normal! We geek out textured dials and depth of color c鈥檓on man!