Too far down the rabbit hole?

"Am I too far down the rabbit hole on this? Probably. Is there confirmation bias at play? Definitely. But indulge me in my conspiracy cahoots."

When I see articles like this: https://www.chrono24.com/magazine/omega-2023-new-releases-what-we-hope-to-see-from-the-brand-p_104809/#gref, I can't help but wonder "what do they know?" The article, published in December of 2022 lists among its 'speculated' Omega changes "A New, Contemporary Daytona Rival: The Omega Speedmaster Racing," and whadaya know...Omega Released a new Speedmaster racing w/ new tech just over a month later.

COINCIDENCE?! ...I THINK NOT!

Sure, it's not a stretch to think that many watch journalists and figureheads have advanced notice of what's coming down the pike...and sure they're "embargoed" from sharing what they know. But...then I remembered all of the watch world speculating about a new pelagos...a new Tudor BB GMT,...and it all started to feel too close to be 'pure speculation' or 'hope.' Almost like deja vu, many were talking about titanium and GMT watches for "the new year" and tons hit the market in January.

And now, like deja vu all over again...I'm seeing lots of journalists and bloggers 'hoping' the SMP300m gets a new bracelet.

https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/from-rolex-to-holy-trinity-our-predictions-projections-and-wild-guesses-for-the-watch-world-in-2023

https://wornandwound.com/our-predictions-for-the-watch-world-in-2023/

And now I'm seeing posts on Bezel where SMP300m models are selling WAY below retail. Now I'm wondering if jewelers and watch sellers know that things are about to be released at Watches and Wonders and they're trying to dump inventory.

And now I'm wondering...

Am I too far down the rabbit hole on this? Probably. Is there confirmation bias at play? Definitely. But indulge me in my conspiracy cahoots.

I welcome your thoughts!

Reply
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Excellent and insightful points. I’m starting to wonder also.

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Influential journalists and YouTubers absolutely get advanced information and sometimes invites to HQ to see what’s about to be released, subject to embargo until a certain date.

IIRC the MoonSwatch story broke early with a premature post by Revolution Watch.

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Davemcc

Influential journalists and YouTubers absolutely get advanced information and sometimes invites to HQ to see what’s about to be released, subject to embargo until a certain date.

IIRC the MoonSwatch story broke early with a premature post by Revolution Watch.

Yeah—I totally get that. I’m just starting to wonder if they’re getting “around” that embargo by “hoping” or “predicting.”

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It's hardly a conspiracy. It's how PR and marketing works.

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KyleC93

Yeah—I totally get that. I’m just starting to wonder if they’re getting “around” that embargo by “hoping” or “predicting.”

Yep. They'll no doubt have been told they can package it in that way to help hype speculation.

All the top journalists are bound to have 'a friend' in the brand HQ.

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Who knows why mad men do what they do…

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They are all lizards in disguise as far as I'm concerned 🛸

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Marketing professionals literally have press contacts that they call and tell to write articles about certain things under the guise of "inside information".