We made plenty. We should have enough to go around!

There are probably a few mechanisms in play here.

S&P is a weighted index, and the top 5 or 6 stocks are responsible for the majority of the index' performance. Those top companies are cash cows that are not hurt nearly as bad, if at all, by high borrowing rates. As such, investors looking for risky but outsized returns can't go into penny stocks or high growth (but unprofitable companies), so revert to crypto.

In addition to this, the strong dollar is forcing many people around the world to look for an inflation hedge, since inflation is far worse in countries that are hit with the double whammy of supply chain issues AND weaker spending power. As such, crypto serves as the high-risk investment in a portfolio while gold, which is currently at all time highs, is the flight to safety (We recently inquired about making solid gold parts and I was utterly shocked at the cost compared to 2018-2019).

All that is to say, I think the economy seems strong only from one angle, but weak from other angles - and this has been echoed by many of our customers, many of which are asking for discounts because of job loss or less disposable income. Others are purchasing multiple watches every couple of months. Everything is a mess and the data is noisy, but the best analogy I've heard to explain the current state of the economy is: I have two pieces of bread to eat, you have nothing. We both, on average, ate one piece of bread.

It is a mixed bag for micros, but one thing is for sure - we are all marching to our own drum.

Some of our partners have reported a record Q1, others are flat to slightly down. Some have said they are up slightly but have had to increase ad spend about 50-100% to achieve that. Others have done absolutely nothing different from last year but have doubled sales. Many of our factories have reported a 10-15% decrease in order volume last year and are expecting a further 10-15% drop in order volume in 2024.

Many factories in China have doubled down on their sales teams to try to stop the bleeding, but the drop in order volume has come mostly from large Swiss and European brands, not micros, which according to many factories continue to grow. Many of the large Swiss have pulled production out of China and moved it to Thailand, and a select few micros have follow suit - but this started back in 2020 due to China’s zero-Covid policy.

Don’t really know what to make of any of the above yet, but one thing is certain. We are going through turmoil, many will be shaken out but those that survive will come out on the other side much stronger.

That is a throwback!

I'm down for more Canyon colors. When we started the project with @TheSmokingTire, we had over a dozen colors we were playing with.

NAILED the green ceramic! Just the perfect shade.

The media business is a tough one, which is why many outlets are getting into things beyond just having a website with news and reviews.

Getting into the reseller business was doomed to fail as it operates on razor thin margins and is inherently unscalable.

Despite all that, Hodinkee is still the strongest brand in the watch media space. We were recently featured for the first time in our seven years as a company, and unlike a lot of other outlets, Hodinkee still moves the needle for us.