What watch brand(s) do you predict will disappear from new retail within 10-years?

Great question! I’m curious what would cause a brand to crumble…maybe just a brand buying another?

I’m thinking of either just lack of sales and or/interest, or financial stability of the company itself.

It seems many micro-brands might fall into the latter category, but even some established brands within one of the big watch corporate groups might just go away.

I can see some brands being “paused” by their corporate overlords for a decade or more ie. no new references.

I suspect that none will just fade away. Those that we lose will be abrupt.

The microbrand space is due for a shake up. Most micros are too small and undercapitalized to withstand economic headwinds that are too severe or last too long.

Industrial policy in Switzerland and China and the business culture in Japan will insulate many brands, even those that underperform.

So, my guess is the Kickstarter micros will go first. Look for delays in delivery and late re-designs. Based on no more than this I think Wise and Bourbon Watch Company look wobbly.

Hublot.

There are probably many microbrands that won’t be around in 10 years, probably the ones that you only hear about on WC once in awhile. One watch brand that I think will shrink and maybe dissolve is Shinola, reminds me of Kobold out of Pittsburgh back in the day.

Also wonder if Rolex’s purchase of burcherer will have any impact to other brands, but I agree with everyone here I don’t see brands dying off…there’s a lot of smaller brands still keeping up. I don’t know anyone who has a Mido, oris or Alpina but they’re still around! No offense ! Plus there’s always someone around to revive…Nivada, exlesior park etc. I’m hoping to see Waltham make a comet since I live nearby…would be cool buy the rights to a dead brand and kickstart it

As much as I love and respect them, I worry about the smaller independent brands such as Oris, NOMOS and Sinn. Their major selling point has always been bang-for-buck, but their price increases in recent years has moved them into much more direct competition with the established and far more recognized historic brands which have enormous marketing budgets. So in terms of consumer awareness, those smaller indie brands are at risk of getting lost, and as far as financials, it’s very difficult to compete with the big dawgs like Richemont, LVMH and Swatch Group who have a massive economies-of-scale advantage in manufacturing.

Hublot is the herpes of the watch world. Can’t get rid of it.

I believe that Oris, Nomos and Sinn each have a strong customer base and a unique selling proposition. If they run into trouble I think they are more likely to be acquired by one of the big dogs rather than fold.

I wonder about the Sowind Group: Girard Perregaux and Ulysse Nardin. After breaking off from Kering, are they well-capitalized enough to compete in super-luxury market? At that level you need an excellent sales and service organization and that costs a lot of money.

I also wonder about MontBlanc, even though they are part of Richemont. They made a big splash 20 years ago when they started making watches. But I rarely hear anyone talk about them these days. Apparently they are losing money. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Richemont shuts down the watchmaking division.

Go on…

Franck muller

Never understood sinn

I personally would not miss Hublot, Im not sure why I feel that way I seem to find something in all the majors lineup that I like but the Hublot just doesnt do it for me. JMO...Enjoy the hobby

Baume & Mercier? Corum?

Since the majority of new businesses fail, I expect the same will hold true with microbrand watch companies. Most will fail, especially over a ten year period. Some won't be able to sustain sales; for others the owners may lose interest and shut down.

I also think many of the "heritage revival" brands (such as Excelsior Park, Nevada Grenchen, Wolbrook, etc.) will be gone again.

Larger, established brands will stick around, although there will probably be continued consolidation of ownership. As fewer watches are sold overall, the larger companies will look to increase sales by buying other well known brands that may be in financial difficulty.

I wonder what will be of AP and Patek Philippe. They are independent and one trick ponies (Royal Oak for AP, Nautilus/Aquanot for Patek), with the pressure of the big ones (Rolex, Swatch, Richmond) if they can’t reinvent themselves are certainly 10 years from irrelevance

Don’t agree on these two. The Royal Oak is all AP has, for sure, but I don’t see why it would fall out of fashion so severely that the company would be imperiled after 50 years of sustained success.

And Patek is far from a one trick pony. Us dorks on WatchCrunch may only know of Patek from the Nautilus, but the people who buy Patek know of and appreciate their extensive dress watch collections. They’ll be just fine.

Whoblot what's that 🙄🤣

I think the whole world watch market will collapse and the luxury scene because of more important things going on in the world,then they will all drop there disgusting prices down to what they should be and I will buy them all no more arguments on best brand or best watch because if you want one you will have it 🤣😂sorry people just woke up I'm still dreaming had an kikuchi nakagawa murakumo on then with a white gold calatrava breguet numerals and my full house was just one big watch box going back to sleep just checked watch prices still the same sh#%£@t

Where are people pulling these brands from?

Hublot are the 12th biggest seller of Swiss watches and are part of the LVMH umbrella. They also sponsor multiple major sporting events. Giving any answer other than spite or sass, tell me how they would drop the ball from their current market position given the aggressive marketing campaign they underwent in the 2000s-2010s to get into their current position? I don’t like them is not an answer.

Baumé & Mercier? Richemont group brand, so unless we are just stating brands we’ve never seen or heard before (or for a while), let’s have some actual reasoning. Btw, Teddy Baldasarre says the following of the brand for 2023:

As another Swiss watch brand that is often overlooked by the general watch-buying public, Baume & Mercier presents solid value in its tastefully designed collection, and has recently forayed into making some in-house calibers, including the BM13-1975A installed in the Clifton Baumatic, one of the brand’s most popular collections. Capitalizing on an industry trend currently gaining ground, Baume & Mercier has taken the environmentally-conscious route by releasing the 10587, cased in recycled ocean plastic, in 2020.

Thanks Teddy, saves me a deep dive. Perception though…

Corum? There was a period of questionable design choices within the usual bold designs (some hype chasing, some trend chasing, a few limited editions that didn’t really sell), but you have to factor in that they are hugely popular in the affluent Asian market for people after a statement Swiss watch. If they keep some of the design misfires to a low, they’ll probably be fine. They were at WandW 2023, and they are still going strong; they have only just released the LAB02, a handsome-looking watch with a hand-made calibre containing a flying gear train, a flying tourbillon, and almost no bridges. F**k Corum right…

Btw: f*ck me and the horse I rode in on