The first watch I bought for myself, with my own money, was a Timex Expedition Chrono Alarm, which I bought at a Target in Orange County, California, in 2007. Still have it, although I no longer live in California nor in the US.

First luxury watch I bought was an Oris Aquis Date, in 2018. That one I've sold, but it was a great watch.

I've also heard/read that it's not really 1 million Rolex a year, it's a million Rolex + Tudor a year, which would make the Rolex supply even scarcer. But, as most information related to Rolex business, who knows if it's true or not?

Your math seems to add up and your conclusions make sense, but I still believe there is more to it than insufficient production causing scarcity at retail level.

I assume we all agree that $3000 is a significant amount of money and that we'd be spending the $3000 all at once. Normally, 10 x $300 watches are bought over a time period and, sometimes, because we do not have the necessary patience to save up for that special $3000 piece (one of the great pitfalls of watch collecting 😉).

So, I'd definitely use the $3000 to buy a single special watch, not spread it around.

Since I wear a suit to work most days, the Reverso goes pretty well with the outfit. Still rotate my collection, though.