Man I hope there are a bunch of things that become accessible as the watch market slows.
I'm with you. Hopefully there's a "short squeeze" of sorts when all the hoarders dump their stock.
Unfortunately, I am not so sanguine!
When the recession hits, prices on watches are gonna fall, but
I could be wrong, but I think right now it's just the massively overpriced stuff that is softening. So Rolex, and the high-end sports watches. I don't see them ever dropping below retail (or even close to retail). At least not this decade.
I walked into a GS AD yesterday and tried on the SBGE275, thought about it, said I will take it, and the strangest thing happened. They said "OK", and sold me the watch. Wouldn't it be great, if someday all watch buying experiences were this easy?
In the oncoming recession my $15 watches will become $11 watches. That's not the bad part. The bad part is that we are going to lose local watchmakers. The profession has been in serious decline for at least forty years. Watches sit in drawers and don't get repaired in a recession.
The future may be that we all mail watches to a handful of places for repair and that our costs dramatically increase. Time to buy some tools and watch some videos.
On the other hand, Tiffany OP values could continue to rise at 500%, and in 15 years they'll be like $100T.
I'm hoping, not for a recession, but for people to find a new hobby to dump their cash into. I doubt that would collapse pricing, but I could see a slight relaxation in demand returning prices to msrp, and thus pushing preowned prices (for available products) down under msrp. Basically, returning us to the "reasonable" marketplace we were in up until 3-4 years ago.
That said, I'm neither an economist nor a marketer, so what do I know. 😀
Even without a recession, rising interest rates and market saturation are seeing watch prices soften. They needed to - what a rip-off most brands are now.
Economist by training, writing and publishing about horology. Also a professor. Forthcoming book on the history of Rolex.