What the Hype? Rolex Ceramic Daytona 116500LN
In this infographic series, I will aim to bring attention to 'hype watches' and the prices being asked for them on the grey-market. (This is actually the 7th article I've put on this topic, with the other 6 on my IG page so far. Feel free to check them out there.)
The Rolex Ceramic Daytona is arguably the true royalty of luxury watch hype. It was amongst the first Rolex models to be waitlisted and command hype premiums. It is my personal belief that the record-breaking Phillips Auction 2017 of Paul Newman's personal vintage Daytona was singularly responsible for awakening the collective awareness of the mainstream 'alternative investment' community. Since then, the uptrend of grey market prices for Rolex has only gone from strength to strength with just minor blips in between. You do not need to look very far to see the domino effect it has caused.
Exhibit 1: Zenith Chronomaster Sport - When this one was announced, many enthusiasts commented on how similar it was to the Daytona. Sure, it does have the impressive 1/10th second El Primero chronograph movement, but this model was clearly designed to garner some market share away from the unobtainable Rolex. And frankly it has worked. As @timetidewatches found out at #watchesandwonders2022 , Zenith has discontinued the Defy to channel production to meet the demands of this model range. I dare say, that this is also the first Zenith to have an actual waitlist in a long while.
Exhibit 2: Omega Speedmaster Caliber 321 Ed White - A faithful recreation of the original legendary Caliber 321 movement that passed all NASA tests and subsequently was put in the actual Moonwatch, powers this watch. Omega unsurprisingly priced this at a retail price very close to the retail of the Daytona too when previously the gap was larger. The Ed White is a low production regular model, and has since become waitlisted and also commands a premium in grey market circles.
Exhibit 3: Tudor Black Bay Chronograph Panda - There's no illusion here; Tudor set this up to be the more 'affordable' Daytona, and the market has responded. There's an actual waitlist for this panda dial (vs the reverse panda), and premiums for the former also exist on the grey market. And this is in spite of the Tudor not having the provenance of Exhibit 1 or 2, other than being a Rolex-associated brand. If you need evidence that Tudor is set up clearly to be the 'affordable', more 'available' Rolex - look no further.
As much as I get that the Daytona is a great piece, I look at it as a bellwether of watch hype and grey market premiums. If this particular model does not show signs of cooling in the grey market, let me declare publicly: All watch prices will continue to rise just like the sea level due to the global warming (the latter which is the Rolex hype prices).
What do you think? Is there anyway else for the hype and prices to cool across the market?
A watch addict who also happens to be a photography enthusiast. I also enjoy crafting simple watch-related infographics from time to time. You can find all my content on my IG page.
Very well thought out graphic 👍. Should of thought about it for my YT channel 😂. Great stuff 👌.
You are 100% correct on each of your points. I think overall, the prices will cool, but I watched a video from CRM Jewelers, where there was a conversation around the watch market, and they showed calls throughout the day of people calling to sell their watches before they picked it up from the AD 😮! Additionally, they weren't purchasing watches from sellers and collectors because the market is dipping. We all knew this would happen. What was interesting was the discussion on if prices would go back down to retail prices of the bygone era. The answer was most likely not, but a softening was predicted. This isn't surprising as people aren't as flushed with cash, interest rates, life, supply chains etc., and the overall adaptability of the world market may be causing this correction.
Hype watches will still exist, think Richard Mille etc. but I believe, imho, we will see prices come down to a manageable "premium" over retail for many of the watches that have enjoyed major hype ( I'm looking at you Rolex).
I think you make good points, I think there’s going to be some softening of the market for non-superpremium brands, which will include most new Rolex models. My thoughts are centered in my own ability and behavior. I have an interest in watches, and am now building my collection. I could easily pay up to $100k for a watch, but would rather be in the $5k-$20k range, as I like to use my watches as a daily wear. I the car world, I’m a BMW-Porsche buyer, with no interest in a Bentley or Ferrari. I’d prefer the relationship and service from a good AD, rather than use the grey market for a very large purchase. I don’t want to own 4-5 watches from a single brand, just to qualify to get the watch I want. I’m guessing (?) I’m not that unusual for a buyer of upmarket watches. I’m actually OK not ever owning a Rolex, I have a stainless steel quartz Luminox chronometer from the ‘90’s that pretty much fills that spot in my collection. That’s not to knock Rolex, just my reality. Thanks for the post.
I think you made some great points.
The only thing I would argue about is that you used Chrono24 for the reference prices. Ex. The Zenith Chronomaster Sport can be bought under retail every day of the week from reputable dealers.
Great article, I don’t disagree with the premise but Chrono24 prices are VERY inflated.
You are 100% correct on each of your points. I think overall, the prices will cool, but I watched a video from CRM Jewelers, where there was a conversation around the watch market, and they showed calls throughout the day of people calling to sell their watches before they picked it up from the AD 😮! Additionally, they weren't purchasing watches from sellers and collectors because the market is dipping. We all knew this would happen. What was interesting was the discussion on if prices would go back down to retail prices of the bygone era. The answer was most likely not, but a softening was predicted. This isn't surprising as people aren't as flushed with cash, interest rates, life, supply chains etc., and the overall adaptability of the world market may be causing this correction.
Hype watches will still exist, think Richard Mille etc. but I believe, imho, we will see prices come down to a manageable "premium" over retail for many of the watches that have enjoyed major hype ( I'm looking at you Rolex).
Agree and I certainly hope the forecast of cooling materialises - only so that other brands' rapid price rises will also similarly cool. Hopefully that allows more enthusiasts to enjoy and access more luxury-level brands. For those of us who started a few years earlier, I do feel for that those just starting won't be able to enjoy the 'value' that used to be found 3-4 years ago from comparable mainstream luxury brands.
I think you make good points, I think there’s going to be some softening of the market for non-superpremium brands, which will include most new Rolex models. My thoughts are centered in my own ability and behavior. I have an interest in watches, and am now building my collection. I could easily pay up to $100k for a watch, but would rather be in the $5k-$20k range, as I like to use my watches as a daily wear. I the car world, I’m a BMW-Porsche buyer, with no interest in a Bentley or Ferrari. I’d prefer the relationship and service from a good AD, rather than use the grey market for a very large purchase. I don’t want to own 4-5 watches from a single brand, just to qualify to get the watch I want. I’m guessing (?) I’m not that unusual for a buyer of upmarket watches. I’m actually OK not ever owning a Rolex, I have a stainless steel quartz Luminox chronometer from the ‘90’s that pretty much fills that spot in my collection. That’s not to knock Rolex, just my reality. Thanks for the post.
I'm with you on all your points here. I have a personal collection built on diversity and also price ranges. I too rather be in a price range of under USD 10k, but that's a personal choice. I have also made many attempts to build rapport with Sales Reps, and it is no coincidence that it is the hype brands that usually don't reciprocate (they have so many suitors anyway). Optimistically, I do hope things will get better in time!
I think you made some great points.
The only thing I would argue about is that you used Chrono24 for the reference prices. Ex. The Zenith Chronomaster Sport can be bought under retail every day of the week from reputable dealers.
Great article, I don’t disagree with the premise but Chrono24 prices are VERY inflated.
Fair point.
Actually when I started this series, my thought process is as follows:
Hope this helps clarify the thinking I've applied and I'm happy to take more notes down!
I’ve always felt that the Defy line was Biver’s Hublot-ization of Zenith, not in a good way. I’m glad to hear that they are beginning to focus on more mainstream products and trying to get them out to customers faster.
I’ve always felt that the Defy line was Biver’s Hublot-ization of Zenith, not in a good way. I’m glad to hear that they are beginning to focus on more mainstream products and trying to get them out to customers faster.
That's a fair point. I am biased of course to the fact that I believe the Defy Classic Skeleton being one of the most balanced, well executed Skeleton dials on the market prior to its discontinuation. I even like them over any Hublot / Tag design so far that were part of the Hublot-ization also. So I can't help but feel sad that that model range will no longer exist. I'm also not really a fan of the arguably 'gimmicky' new Defy Skyline even though it does consolidate all movements to be the hi-beat 36,000vph movement now with that shift.
But hey, that's just me!
Agree and I certainly hope the forecast of cooling materialises - only so that other brands' rapid price rises will also similarly cool. Hopefully that allows more enthusiasts to enjoy and access more luxury-level brands. For those of us who started a few years earlier, I do feel for that those just starting won't be able to enjoy the 'value' that used to be found 3-4 years ago from comparable mainstream luxury brands.
Yes, and I've been watching Watch Charts and various grey market dealers that I know are reputable (I only trust a handful that I've dealt with at this point). I'm hearing them say, "we aren't purchasing Rolex because the market is flooded". This indicates to me that prices have to drop, plus people are trying to sell at a rapid rate. I'm getting my $ ready because I predict there will be some good deals on pre-owned....I think there's blood in the water and a feeding frenzy is coming. These grey market dealers don't want to hold inventory and there are so many of them and they are competing for business. There aren't enough people to spend $7k+ on a piece as the general world markets recalibrate and stabilize.
Very nice graphic! 👌🏻 It seems that the bubble is about to burst! 😂