"Watching" in LA...

You are not being paranoid.  Here are some very comprehensive and compelling data to back up  your "Spidey sense."

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/10/27/what-we-know-about-the-increase-in-u-s-murders-in-2020/

Here are some fun quotes:

The year-over-year increase in the U.S. murder rate in 2020 was the largest since at least 1905 – and possibly ever

The percentage of murders that were solved – known as the “clearance rate” – declined from 61% in 2019 to 54% in 2020, according to the FBI

Nearly 50% of all murders go unsolved!!!  

But, some commentators might say, "Yeah, but the vast majority of murders aren't random attacks.  It's mostly people who know each other who kill one another.  You're safe."  Well, no, you're not safe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/07/rising-murder-rate-falling-crime-statistics-pandemic/

the chance of being victimized if you were out on the street rose significantly: “In 2020, the risk of outdoor street crimes initially rose by more than 40% and was consistently between 10-15% higher than it had been in 2019 through the remainder of the year.”

If you are out on the street at 4pm in downtown LA, you have a much greater likelihood of being the victim of a crime than in 2019, as there was an initial spike in crime in 2020, relative to 2019, and the trend is continuing upward:

https://counciloncj.org/2021-year-end-crime-report/

Don't do it, man.   Don't wear a nice watch out on the street.  You don't want to be one of  the 46% of "uncleared" homicides. 

As they say, "Have a nice day!"

When it come to valuable stuff even a nice looking fossil or Invicta worth 50 bucks might be a good catch for a Junky. I lived all my life in LA and I can tell you DT was always sketchy. Being concern about safety is a good thing. If your a crime magnet like me just drive and you don't have to worry as much. If you do not drive then uber places and insure your valuables if they are very expensive.  Also now 9 times out of 10 criminals drive a nice car is not how it used to be so just don't walk alone in sketchy dark places.

The last time that it was this bad I was a new criminal defense attorney in New Orleans.  I was held up at gunpoint, burglarized, car was broken into and later stolen.  A co-worker's wife was murdered in a random robbery attempt.  It had taken 50 years to get to that point.

This time the rise is much sharper.  The "good old days" are much closer to us.  I think, more hope, that the reaction will be swifter this time.

We have written off California in most of the rest of the country.  Y'all won't help yourselves. I still see Rolex and other luxury watches downtown here. We don't allow tent encampments under highways.  That being said, it is worse now than at any other times since I have lived here.

It is safe to travel anywhere in Los Angeles if you are a bullet... Watches are like art collections = leave them in a well guarded structure and enjoy looking at them.  

Trust your gut. 

A good life rule I learned from my mentor decades ago applies to most, if not all situations needing a personal decision: "When in doubt, don't."  

I think it's worse than a few years ago but not multiple times worse so it's not like the decision to wear a nice watch would have changed.

That said, I also have to remind family to not be wearing luxury items in certain parts of LA; that was the case pre-pandemic and even more so today.

Tbh I don’t want to be on the side of 54% either 😂

California is a natural paradise.  It is roughly 1.7 times the size of the UK. Los Angeles County is more populous than 40 of the 50 states.  It's population is slightly smaller than Portugal, just one county. The state has more people than Canada or Poland.

California, and the whole West Coast, has been more culturally and politically progressive than the rest of the US for more than a century.  There are many reasons for this. The United States has been sorting by political and cultural inclination for decades and this self-selection is accelerating.  Like minded people are living near like minded people.

Californians believe that there is a "root cause" for crime (see @roberto 's comment below). This forum is really not for this sort of discussion.  Let's just say that I disagree.  I believe that if you incentivize and subsidize behavior, good or bad, you get more of it.  For years, California, and especially Los Angeles, has incentivized open drug markets.  Drug markets lead to collateral crimes such as car jackings, burglaries, and robberies.  People on drugs are prone to be more violent because they are numb.

In Los Angeles, the homeless camp out on sidewalks and do drugs in the open.  They are not interdicted.  The homeless are homeless because of addiction.  They are subsidized.  Businesses flee.  Skid Row grows.

The United States is really several political cultures that are woven together in a federal system. The states are encouraged to experiment by some groups of politicians and others expect states to conform.  It really depends which party is ascendant, they are more alike than dissimilar.

In 2020 California lost population for the first time since censuses were taken.  People are moving with their feet.

In the United States the sky is always falling, Rome is always burning. The people who disagree with our group about culture, religion, family, etc. are always destroying the country. When times are good this feeling remains on the fringe.  The fringe is encroaching on the middle.

(Just to swipe at @roberto 's comment again.  Statistics are a lagging indicator. Crime statistics are aggregates of lies. Wealth inequality is a symptom, not a cause.)

Just to bring all back around.  I should be getting a new watch tomorrow.  One that will be safe for LA County. As Lyle Lovett sang "And the lights of L.A. County, looked like diamonds in the sky..."

I have no data to back this up, but I feel like watches on Straps are less of a target than those on bracelet. I’ve heard Adrian from Bark and Jack mention in a video that he doesn’t wear bracelets in certain parts of London. I’m not really a bracelet  guy, but wearing a NATO or leather strap when I’m in DTLA gives me piece of mind that I’m not being too flashy

😂😂😂

OMG...  that hadn't even occurred to me.  Brilliant!!!

Offer‘s open: smoked bourbon bijou for y’all when you come over!

Idk I just went to LA saw people everywhere I went wearing all sorts of watches. I didn't feel unsafe anywhere and rode public transportation. My main consideration was taking a watch that could survive a fall, that city is not level! Wtf, i was hiking, I don't go into the woods because I don't want to hike, ha ha ha. 

This discussion gave me hope for our society.  Thx all for keeping it civil and interesting.

Cheers and Happy Sunday, everyone! ❤