Pre-owned market price drops?
I regularly look for certain watches that are no longer available from an AD. J Moser, Parmigiani, vintage JLC and others. I’ve noticed that some of my favorite online suppliers and taking longer to sell; the prices are being reduced quicker and being reduced by larger amounts.
Are others seeing the same? Makes me wonder what a ‘fair’ price is these days.
12 comments
Sort by
Stewart
Welcome to my WatchCrunch profile.
Arlington Va
Member since
Last active: 1 year ago
Absolutely. Short of a select brands, most will take a dip, some larger than others. The reality is, most people have never heard of each of those brands, including JLC. Most watches of that nature are often purchased by other dealers hoping to quickly flip to another dealer, or if lucky a client. They arbitrage the short spread. However, when dealers don’t have an interest and clients do not have an interest, that is where you can save. They tie up a lot of capital so dealers need to get out, even if it means a small loss, or total bath.
It is also a sign of a softening watch market.
I LOVE the price drops! It means I get to buy all these watches for less… except I bought so many of them because they were a “good deal” that I’ve ended up spending like 300% of my watch budget for the next decade… damn.
This sucks.
I LOVE the price drops! It means I get to buy all these watches for less… except I bought so many of them because they were a “good deal” that I’ve ended up spending like 300% of my watch budget for the next decade… damn.
This sucks.
This is a real struggle. You‘re amongst friends.
This is a real struggle. You‘re amongst friends.
RIGHT???
I mean...
With all that, one would think that a rational human being would cut back on watch purchases, no matter how discounted a timepiece might be, given the much larger fall in net worth that's occurred!
"Ah, but that's 'wealth effect.' Maybe 'income effect' is offsetting the fall in net worth?" I wish! You, @AllTheWatches, know precisely what I mean when I say that income has fallen too, if a large component of one's compensation is in company stock and the stock price falls!
This hobby is really, really bad!
RIGHT???
I mean...
With all that, one would think that a rational human being would cut back on watch purchases, no matter how discounted a timepiece might be, given the much larger fall in net worth that's occurred!
"Ah, but that's 'wealth effect.' Maybe 'income effect' is offsetting the fall in net worth?" I wish! You, @AllTheWatches, know precisely what I mean when I say that income has fallen too, if a large component of one's compensation is in company stock and the stock price falls!
This hobby is really, really bad!
It is defintely bad, especially for those of us who see these dips and try to take advantage and hope by the grace of Crom they do not go down much further. I would be lying if there are not certain models I have been waiting to fall back down to earth.
Absolutely. Short of a select brands, most will take a dip, some larger than others. The reality is, most people have never heard of each of those brands, including JLC. Most watches of that nature are often purchased by other dealers hoping to quickly flip to another dealer, or if lucky a client. They arbitrage the short spread. However, when dealers don’t have an interest and clients do not have an interest, that is where you can save. They tie up a lot of capital so dealers need to get out, even if it means a small loss, or total bath.
It is also a sign of a softening watch market.
I’m seeing most brands go lower. Even the non-hyped Rolexes. It’s not just the more obscure. You are right though, the more obscure, the quicker they are falling. Some newer Pateks are even at or just under MSP.
Yes i started to see prices slowly going down again :) good for us!
I LOVE the price drops! It means I get to buy all these watches for less… except I bought so many of them because they were a “good deal” that I’ve ended up spending like 300% of my watch budget for the next decade… damn.
This sucks.
This is a very interesting way of looking at it. If I translate my household income into minutes of work per USD, my last modded watch took about 25 minutes to pay for. Granted, it's not much of a speculative investment, but it looks nice. 😂
The housing market here is fairly stable, which probably implies that many people are still able to put of large percentage of cash against their house. (I also don't have a mortgage, and it would be relatively easy to get into a much larger home at the moment. Except that I don't need one.)
Yeah, the S&P500 is down, but I figure that I still have 10 years prior to retirement, and a lot can happen. So yes, real income has fallen, especially for those who are getting paid in stock, and/or are investing in any form of retirement accounts. (Those who have paid into pension funds with LDI strategies probably spend a lot of time in the bathroom.) For me, translating the current market back into time frames, the current crisis has set me back about a year.
Otherwise I find the price drop for luxury watches relatively hard to gauge, as actual pricing is often very obscure, in contrast to asking price. That being said, it's very odd how long certain watches seem to be for sale. But the affluent households who can afford such watches probably still have enough cash reserves at the moment, because their losses in other investments have not yet been realized.
It will be a while IMHO before luxury watches are being sold because the owner truly needs to.
Damn! You're right!
My kids are the ones who will be regretting all my watch purchases - less sweet, sweet cash for them when I kick the bucket!
This is a very interesting way of looking at it. If I translate my household income into minutes of work per USD, my last modded watch took about 25 minutes to pay for. Granted, it's not much of a speculative investment, but it looks nice. 😂
The housing market here is fairly stable, which probably implies that many people are still able to put of large percentage of cash against their house. (I also don't have a mortgage, and it would be relatively easy to get into a much larger home at the moment. Except that I don't need one.)
Yeah, the S&P500 is down, but I figure that I still have 10 years prior to retirement, and a lot can happen. So yes, real income has fallen, especially for those who are getting paid in stock, and/or are investing in any form of retirement accounts. (Those who have paid into pension funds with LDI strategies probably spend a lot of time in the bathroom.) For me, translating the current market back into time frames, the current crisis has set me back about a year.
Otherwise I find the price drop for luxury watches relatively hard to gauge, as actual pricing is often very obscure, in contrast to asking price. That being said, it's very odd how long certain watches seem to be for sale. But the affluent households who can afford such watches probably still have enough cash reserves at the moment, because their losses in other investments have not yet been realized.
It will be a while IMHO before luxury watches are being sold because the owner truly needs to.
YES!!!
Genuinely, I try guide all my decision-making by translating everything into a function of $/hour or $/minute.
The absolute worst is my mom. When you grow up in China under Mao, the idea that you're not going to die of starvation at any given moment is entirely foreign to you. Every moment of every day, you must consider 800 different variables to perfectly optimize every single penny... because you never know... at any moment, Mao may materialize before your very eyes, and force you into a labor camp, or murder 10% of the population via the Great Leap Forward.
YES!!!
Genuinely, I try guide all my decision-making by translating everything into a function of $/hour or $/minute.
The absolute worst is my mom. When you grow up in China under Mao, the idea that you're not going to die of starvation at any given moment is entirely foreign to you. Every moment of every day, you must consider 800 different variables to perfectly optimize every single penny... because you never know... at any moment, Mao may materialize before your very eyes, and force you into a labor camp, or murder 10% of the population via the Great Leap Forward.
Having lived in the Bay Area, I can pretty much visualize the scene. Of course, I am not able to understand Chinese, but watching a friend's Chinese mother-in-law observe how he and his wife raised their kids was very enlightening. She didn't always yell, but her facial expressions were priceless.
How did we get here? Ah yes, inflation and stock market performance. Yes, whether watches will become affordable will depend on whether all your previously disposable income will go to expenses related to housing, energy, transportation and food.