How many watches do Brew make in a run?
So I think a lot of microbrand fans were waiting for the new batch of Metrics to come out yesterday morning. A friend bought the silver color way to go with his OG and I got one of the Retros. So we were talking about how many of these come in a batch where they sell out in 24 hours. Do any of you guys have any insight into how microbrands figure out how many to make ?
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Michael
My name is Michael. Just got into the hobby in 2019, but took the full plunge. I really love watch photography as well IG: yankthemike.watches
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Last active: 47 min ago
6.60” / 16.76 cm
I believe I heard him say, outside of LEs, they’ll make as many as their manufacturer will pump out.
At least they don't sell out in minutes. Low bar I know.
I contemplated getting one, when I checked that day they were still in stock.
Might get one some day, but good for now. Another plus is if it had been available longer my bank account wouldn't be good happy 😅
This. So many micro brands basically line up at the doors of private label makers and are the mercy of production schedules and supplies.
Refreshingly, I believe I have heard Jonathan Ferrer say that they will produce to demand, rather than some artificial level.
I think they have captured a bit of lightning in a bottle with the Brew-metric so demand prediction for them is basically impossible. I figure they're probably looking at the email signup list, subtracting all the folks who already ordered one and then taking another cut for people who expressed interest but might not actually buy.
It's probably the only way they can avoid getting into trouble with too much inventory while also not taking pre-orders (which would lock in demand but could create some bent feelings if they don't deliver on time). I do appreciate that when to put in a new order, they give an estimate of when they expect to see new items in stock.
Refreshingly, I believe I have heard Jonathan Ferrer say that they will produce to demand, rather than some artificial level.
I think they have captured a bit of lightning in a bottle with the Brew-metric so demand prediction for them is basically impossible. I figure they're probably looking at the email signup list, subtracting all the folks who already ordered one and then taking another cut for people who expressed interest but might not actually buy.
It's probably the only way they can avoid getting into trouble with too much inventory while also not taking pre-orders (which would lock in demand but could create some bent feelings if they don't deliver on time). I do appreciate that when to put in a new order, they give an estimate of when they expect to see new items in stock.
Ahh yeah that makes a lot of sense 🎯
Refreshingly, I believe I have heard Jonathan Ferrer say that they will produce to demand, rather than some artificial level.
I think they have captured a bit of lightning in a bottle with the Brew-metric so demand prediction for them is basically impossible. I figure they're probably looking at the email signup list, subtracting all the folks who already ordered one and then taking another cut for people who expressed interest but might not actually buy.
It's probably the only way they can avoid getting into trouble with too much inventory while also not taking pre-orders (which would lock in demand but could create some bent feelings if they don't deliver on time). I do appreciate that when to put in a new order, they give an estimate of when they expect to see new items in stock.
Are we talking in the 1000 piece range do you reckon?
I was out of phone reception for a few days, upon getting back saw the email saying : we’ve got stock hit this link! - and it linked to a ‘sold out’ page, so it seemed to be not a very large run of watches. Had to be Johnny at the rathole for this one
Are we talking in the 1000 piece range do you reckon?
My guess is that it's lower (in the couple hundreds per SKU versus a thousand). If we assume they're making a 40% gross margin per watch and they have 7 watch types, 1000 units probably means $1.5-1.7M in spending on inventory per refresh. It's a lot of working capital out the door for what I imagine is a pretty small company.
It's certainly possible, but my gut tells me its a lot less. If something goes wrong with the run or a container accidentally drops in the sea, the company is effectively bankrupt. If I were them, I'd order 200-300 units of most of my line and maybe stretch to 400-500 for the more popular ones and then immediately reorder when the batch sells out. Maybe I get 3-4 batches a year and it works out okay without too much inventory on your shelf.
Edit: according to my google research, they make about 5-6M USD a year in revenues. So I figure they sell around 13-14K watches a year, so maybe they're ordering 3000 watches a refresh across 7 watch types (perhaps closer to 700-800 for the higher velocity sellers and 300 for the lower velocity) assuming a 4x year order fill. So not too far off
Told myself I wasnt gonna but…yep I got the retro incoming.
My guess is that it's lower (in the couple hundreds per SKU versus a thousand). If we assume they're making a 40% gross margin per watch and they have 7 watch types, 1000 units probably means $1.5-1.7M in spending on inventory per refresh. It's a lot of working capital out the door for what I imagine is a pretty small company.
It's certainly possible, but my gut tells me its a lot less. If something goes wrong with the run or a container accidentally drops in the sea, the company is effectively bankrupt. If I were them, I'd order 200-300 units of most of my line and maybe stretch to 400-500 for the more popular ones and then immediately reorder when the batch sells out. Maybe I get 3-4 batches a year and it works out okay without too much inventory on your shelf.
Edit: according to my google research, they make about 5-6M USD a year in revenues. So I figure they sell around 13-14K watches a year, so maybe they're ordering 3000 watches a refresh across 7 watch types (perhaps closer to 700-800 for the higher velocity sellers and 300 for the lower velocity) assuming a 4x year order fill. So not too far off
Thanks for that research JC ! Much appreciated. 🙌🏻
For what it’s worth having talked with Jonathan via email about his production and brand strategy since buying 3 of his watches in the last year it’s all about balancing supply and demand and the previous input above is spot on that smaller producers have to plan way in advance based on previous sales and where they are in the line for production/assembly in order to hit their sales dates/targets. Talk about a crap shoot to make or break your business plan. Watch making at a micro level is a tough racket if not impossible. I’m just happy for the success of Brew and look forward to new designs and an expansion of product line.
For what it’s worth having talked with Jonathan via email about his production and brand strategy since buying 3 of his watches in the last year it’s all about balancing supply and demand and the previous input above is spot on that smaller producers have to plan way in advance based on previous sales and where they are in the line for production/assembly in order to hit their sales dates/targets. Talk about a crap shoot to make or break your business plan. Watch making at a micro level is a tough racket if not impossible. I’m just happy for the success of Brew and look forward to new designs and an expansion of product line.
Great looking watches buddy 👊🏻 Yeah I have so much respect for these guys that listen to customers, living possibly on the edge and clearly would not be doing it if not for the love of watches
I think that is the thing about Microbrands to me. You get to have a personal relationship with the owner and want to support them and their entrepreneurial spirit. Wearing the metric that arrived today! Fantastic design and fun to boot.
My guess is that it's lower (in the couple hundreds per SKU versus a thousand). If we assume they're making a 40% gross margin per watch and they have 7 watch types, 1000 units probably means $1.5-1.7M in spending on inventory per refresh. It's a lot of working capital out the door for what I imagine is a pretty small company.
It's certainly possible, but my gut tells me its a lot less. If something goes wrong with the run or a container accidentally drops in the sea, the company is effectively bankrupt. If I were them, I'd order 200-300 units of most of my line and maybe stretch to 400-500 for the more popular ones and then immediately reorder when the batch sells out. Maybe I get 3-4 batches a year and it works out okay without too much inventory on your shelf.
Edit: according to my google research, they make about 5-6M USD a year in revenues. So I figure they sell around 13-14K watches a year, so maybe they're ordering 3000 watches a refresh across 7 watch types (perhaps closer to 700-800 for the higher velocity sellers and 300 for the lower velocity) assuming a 4x year order fill. So not too far off
Dude, I want you on my business school case team 😀
Dude, I want you on my business school case team 😀
I am well past my management consulting prime but thanks 😉