Colorful speculation

Friend dropped is this can of worms with me for the week, and I perked up after watching the watchfinder review this week where he called it 

"The best watch Rolex makes"

The OP is a very solid watch! But when I see one now, I can't help but think about tulip mania. It was very interesting hearing his relationship with his watch as it's value has more than tripled (he's not selling).  What do you think about the OP as a watch, in and out of the context of what's happened with it's price?

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I don't think OP popularity is going away anytime soon - especially since Rolex discontinued some colorways, which will make getting one even tougher. Stella dials from the 1970s are still popular 40 years later...

They're easy and fun to wear, but still luxurious. It's the right formula for today's luxury buyer, I think. 

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celinesimon
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I don't think OP popularity is going away anytime soon - especially since Rolex discontinued some colorways, which will make getting one even tougher. Stella dials from the 1970s are still popular 40 years later...

They're easy and fun to wear, but still luxurious. It's the right formula for today's luxury buyer, I think. 

Yeah the discontinued colors will no doubt exacerbate the problem.

Any idea why we are suddenly so interested in color?  Because we live in dark times? 😂

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Colors go in and out of style so fast I wouldn't want it on an expensive watch. I'm sure someone would say "that is so last year". That tiffany color was all the rage in the 70s and it should have stayed there. Plus the fact that most of those colors don't go with a suit.

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OldSnafu

Colors go in and out of style so fast I wouldn't want it on an expensive watch. I'm sure someone would say "that is so last year". That tiffany color was all the rage in the 70s and it should have stayed there. Plus the fact that most of those colors don't go with a suit.

Yeah call me old fashioned but I'm with you. Give me the anthracite dial any day! 😉

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For years I have used Tulip Mania as an colorful example of a speculative bubble. I was posting on WC on one thing or another and was going to use tulips as an example/allegory. I did a little pre-post research (I have this thing about being right) and found that the sourcing on the Tulip Craze was fairly weak. I now think that it is more legend than history. Shame, because it is such a good story.

I think that color is here to stay.  I will put my marker down here: the next fashion will be colored proprietary alloy cases (see @celinesimon 's article for the opening shot). 

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Aurelian

For years I have used Tulip Mania as an colorful example of a speculative bubble. I was posting on WC on one thing or another and was going to use tulips as an example/allegory. I did a little pre-post research (I have this thing about being right) and found that the sourcing on the Tulip Craze was fairly weak. I now think that it is more legend than history. Shame, because it is such a good story.

I think that color is here to stay.  I will put my marker down here: the next fashion will be colored proprietary alloy cases (see @celinesimon 's article for the opening shot). 

💯💯💯💯💯

Tulip mania is as credible as the story my cousin once told me, about how he was hiking up in the Pacific Northwest, stumbled into a clearing, interrupting the dinner of a family of Sasquatches.  They invited him to sit down, they had a couple of bottles of Chateau Lafite Rothschild together, along with some garlic naan (Sasquatches are vegan, apparently), and then gifted him a commemorative Franklin Mint Star Trek plate, as seen below:

THE FRANKLIN MINT STAR TREK TOS TALKING COLLECTIBLE PLATE | eBay

Nobel Prize Committee awarded the 2013 Nobel in economics, jointly, to Eugene Fama and Robert Shiller.  Effectively, the committee was saying, "Here's a Nobel for a dude who revolutionized our thinking on the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, with some really powerful math and empirical studies that have all supported this revolutionary theory, whose foundation he helped set up.  And if you follow the logic of his work, bubbles don't exist.  And, this Nobel Prize is to be shared with this other dude.  And, well, uh, we're giving the Nobel to this dude because he talks incessantly about how this is a bubble and that's a bubble and how there are more bubbles everywhere than at a Lawrence Welk concert...  though, he provides no actual mathematical evidence of bubbles, and were you to have actually followed his advice over the past several decades, you would have lost your shirt 18 times over.  But, everyone KNOWS there are bubbles!  So, we don't want to piss people off by contravening the conventional wisdom, so we'll abdicate any and all common sense and give the prize to two people who's theories completely contradict one another.  Here's your Nobel!"

Best explanation I've ever come across for lay people on bubbles:

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/02/tesla-bubble.html

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2017/11/bitcoin-and-bubbles.html

Oh...  wait...  this isn't the Econlog forum???  Whoops!

Yeah, I love colors!  Yay colors!

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It's a basic, yet attractive, three-handed, no date watch, that just happens to have a well-known watch brand on it. The colors (while nothing new for the brand) offset what would otherwise be a watch targeting early-mid career professionals. 

In the words of Cal Naughton Jr, "I'd like to imagine Jesus in a tuxedo t-shirt...cos it says like 'I wanna be formal, but I'm here to party too!'" 

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Great (but not inexpensive) watch at retail. Overpriced on the gray market.

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I wish they still made the 39: I prefer the single batons.

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Max

Yeah the discontinued colors will no doubt exacerbate the problem.

Any idea why we are suddenly so interested in color?  Because we live in dark times? 😂

Maybe in the US is going to be summer time soon 🌞 but it's not only Rolexes... Even Breitling go coloured for their icons 🍻 Somehow they always associate young with colourful... So what do they associate those middle age people? Color blind 😎 boring old man who need even Cyclops to read the date right 🤔😡

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Yes OPs are ridiculous at 3x the original price!  Bright dial or not.   All Rolex’s are overvalued, and thus silly, IMHO.  
They are watches I never want to own because they represent several other excellent watches and an epic vacation I could’ve spent that money on.  

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In Theo and Harris's newest video about the 2022 rolex releases they bring up an excellent point in that modern materials mean that these watches won't really age or patina like vintage rolexs do. To keep the exclusivity and specialness of some of these Rolexs it seems the brand is only releasing some dial colors or patterns for a short period so as to preserve their specialness and desirability over the long haul.

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HotWatchChick69

💯💯💯💯💯

Tulip mania is as credible as the story my cousin once told me, about how he was hiking up in the Pacific Northwest, stumbled into a clearing, interrupting the dinner of a family of Sasquatches.  They invited him to sit down, they had a couple of bottles of Chateau Lafite Rothschild together, along with some garlic naan (Sasquatches are vegan, apparently), and then gifted him a commemorative Franklin Mint Star Trek plate, as seen below:

THE FRANKLIN MINT STAR TREK TOS TALKING COLLECTIBLE PLATE | eBay

Nobel Prize Committee awarded the 2013 Nobel in economics, jointly, to Eugene Fama and Robert Shiller.  Effectively, the committee was saying, "Here's a Nobel for a dude who revolutionized our thinking on the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, with some really powerful math and empirical studies that have all supported this revolutionary theory, whose foundation he helped set up.  And if you follow the logic of his work, bubbles don't exist.  And, this Nobel Prize is to be shared with this other dude.  And, well, uh, we're giving the Nobel to this dude because he talks incessantly about how this is a bubble and that's a bubble and how there are more bubbles everywhere than at a Lawrence Welk concert...  though, he provides no actual mathematical evidence of bubbles, and were you to have actually followed his advice over the past several decades, you would have lost your shirt 18 times over.  But, everyone KNOWS there are bubbles!  So, we don't want to piss people off by contravening the conventional wisdom, so we'll abdicate any and all common sense and give the prize to two people who's theories completely contradict one another.  Here's your Nobel!"

Best explanation I've ever come across for lay people on bubbles:

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/02/tesla-bubble.html

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2017/11/bitcoin-and-bubbles.html

Oh...  wait...  this isn't the Econlog forum???  Whoops!

Yeah, I love colors!  Yay colors!

Does anyone still believe the efficient markets hypothesis? I thought anyone who had read Kahneman and Tversky would recognize that markets are anything but efficient, because we are emotional beings that cannot function like robots assessing data and making cold-hearted logical decisions. What does this have to do with watches? Let's see...the MoonSwatch, Tiffany colored dials, Rolex, Patek 5711s, AP Royal Oaks, Richard Mille, etc. The same mania that has driven up the prices of some of these watches to ridiculous levels could also be applied to the market cap of certain popular companies - Tesla anyone?

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The first watch I bought when I started getting interested in watches was a silver dial OP36, which I picked up in the fall of 2018 when discounts were still achievable.  It's a really nice watch, but it certainly doesn't make the cut for the top 5 watches in my collection. At MSRP, I feel that the OP offers decent value, but there is no way that I'd pay a premium above MSRP.  

The color dials are nice, but that's about as strong an adjective as I'd use. I also see them as being more of a fad than a real trend. I wouldn't be surprised if they went the way of the Avacado appliance package and flower print wallpaper within a year or two. 

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Aurelian

For years I have used Tulip Mania as an colorful example of a speculative bubble. I was posting on WC on one thing or another and was going to use tulips as an example/allegory. I did a little pre-post research (I have this thing about being right) and found that the sourcing on the Tulip Craze was fairly weak. I now think that it is more legend than history. Shame, because it is such a good story.

I think that color is here to stay.  I will put my marker down here: the next fashion will be colored proprietary alloy cases (see @celinesimon 's article for the opening shot). 

Damn, you really bursted my bubble 🫧

I almost went shopping for tulip bulbs today