Can you spot a Rolex vs homage brands from across a room?

So it seems that almost weekly now there are local news reports (here in the greater Los Angeles area) of people being beaten, held at gun point and yes, literally run over with a car, in order to steal their watches.  Today, another man was robbed at gunpoint in the middle of the day at a major shopping center.  

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/arrest-made-after-armed-robber-takes-watch-in-beverly-hills/

The article I read didn't identify the watch brand at this point, but the last 4 I've read have all been thefts of Rolex watches. 

So beyond the craziness that this city is devolving into, I was thinking - how are these thieves identifying these watches and picking these victims?  Can they spot a real Rolex vs an homage watch from a few feet away?  I'm into watches and I don't think I could spot a real Submariner or Daytona from the many brands who mimic the design from 5 or 10 feet away.  I mean, I guess if I stared long enough I might.  But that would be way too obvious.  

So I'm wondering, how are they picking their victims? Is it because they are flaunting their watches, or other ways to show off their wealth?  But it's getting crazy in this city and not just in places like Beverly Hills - robberies in Culver City, downtown LA and just parking garages of shopping centers across the county. 

And in case you missed it, or don't believe it (I barely can myself) here was the article on a woman literally being run over for her Rolex in the middle of the day in downtown LA:

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/woman-run-over-while-fleeing-robbers-in-downtown-los-angeles/

So yea, no thanks Rolex.  I'll stick to my Seiko's for now 😎

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I read, and seen some writing, that they don’t. Maybe some initial assesment of the wearer. They grab the watch and check out later.

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I'll keep it blunt. Low income people get their watch, purse, wallet even shoes snatched on the daily and it never makes the news. As soon as the crime spills into Beverly Hills, Century City, Bel-Air, Palos Verdes now it becomes a HUGE deal and makes it into breaking news. Those are dumb as* criminals that do not know the different between a Invicta and a Rolex same reason they started to move into those areas with more money hoping for a bigger payout.

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i dont think i can spot fake watch or homages across room😂. probably the thief take any watch and check it out later

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I've seen the same video, and it makes sense. It is perfectly possible to identify a watch somewhere else, and separate victim and watch after somebody follows them. Luxury watches are expensive enough to justify that sort of criminal planning.

Simply trying to rob somebody at gunpoint can't be all that effective in a country where a lot of people are armed, especially if the prize turns out to be an well-worn Invicta.

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Yeah, really sorry for you bud, as your city and state is really turning into a haven for these criminals. And yep, agree with the rest, that it's usually a coordinated job -- eyeball, identify, observe, follow, snatch. 

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He's a good interview, btw.  Scottish Watches has had him on at least once.

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For the rest of the world:  Los Angeles is, perhaps, the least representative city in the United States. Things happen there, or happen much more often there, on a greater scale then they do in other large American cities. Like an alcoholic, it will only change when it hits rock bottom. It still has farther to go.

Your Rolex is more likely to be stolen in from your watch box, dresser, or nightstand. Watches are stolen in burglaries or by care givers for the old or infirm. It would be the rare waiter who would be a look out for a criminal gang. Like many stories, it was probably too good to check out.

If you are driving a Bentley or expensive Mercedes in Beverly Hills the chances of your watch being worth stealing are pretty high. That may be the only analysis needed. They may not be checking the finishing quality to make sure that they are not stealing a homage. The risk to the thief in Los Angeles is not high enough to deter this sort of brazen theft. The thieves are likely young teenagers tied to gangs. The risk is a few weeks in a juvenile facility. The ones who profit are almost never caught.

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Say what you will about America's gun culture / problems...

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/04/more-guns-less-burglaries.html

As Nobelist Gary Becker pointed out, everyone is "rational" in the sense that everyone responds to incentives - including criminals.

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Aurelian

For the rest of the world:  Los Angeles is, perhaps, the least representative city in the United States. Things happen there, or happen much more often there, on a greater scale then they do in other large American cities. Like an alcoholic, it will only change when it hits rock bottom. It still has farther to go.

Your Rolex is more likely to be stolen in from your watch box, dresser, or nightstand. Watches are stolen in burglaries or by care givers for the old or infirm. It would be the rare waiter who would be a look out for a criminal gang. Like many stories, it was probably too good to check out.

If you are driving a Bentley or expensive Mercedes in Beverly Hills the chances of your watch being worth stealing are pretty high. That may be the only analysis needed. They may not be checking the finishing quality to make sure that they are not stealing a homage. The risk to the thief in Los Angeles is not high enough to deter this sort of brazen theft. The thieves are likely young teenagers tied to gangs. The risk is a few weeks in a juvenile facility. The ones who profit are almost never caught.

I was going to say something similar, thieves don't need a "spotter" if you're coming out of an expensive restaurant, store, or car. Chances are if you can drop $100+ on a lunch, your watch is worth something. 

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Best way to spot a fake Rolex is by looking at the guy wearing it.

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Mr.Dee.Bater

Say what you will about America's gun culture / problems...

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/04/more-guns-less-burglaries.html

As Nobelist Gary Becker pointed out, everyone is "rational" in the sense that everyone responds to incentives - including criminals.

For all non-Americans who don't understand us and wonder why we are so unlike many parts of the world, I would recommend: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Born_Fighting "Born Fighting" by former Senator Jim Webb.  I think that it is the best explanation for American weirdness that I have read.  This is also a generally interesting take: https://freakonomics.com/podcast/american-culture-1/ 

Where I live random stranger on stranger violence is rare.  We are armed to the teeth here.

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Without seeing a coronet or name, hell no. And to tell the difference from a decent fake requires case back removal...

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Thanks for all the responses, this makes alot of sense.  I didn't necessarily mean spot a fake vs. the popular homage watches that big brands make.  I wondered how it was it always a $10k or $30k Rolex being stolen, and not a look-a-like from Invicta, Longines, Seiko, etc.

But I guess like we always say = "Buy the Seller."  Their approach must be "Rob the Wearer, not the Watch."

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JJMM1983

I'll keep it blunt. Low income people get their watch, purse, wallet even shoes snatched on the daily and it never makes the news. As soon as the crime spills into Beverly Hills, Century City, Bel-Air, Palos Verdes now it becomes a HUGE deal and makes it into breaking news. Those are dumb as* criminals that do not know the different between a Invicta and a Rolex same reason they started to move into those areas with more money hoping for a bigger payout.

I think you're right.  People get robbed all the time, but no news station is gonna do a report about someone's Seiko being stolen.  Since the general public doesn't know the names AP, Ulysse Nardin, etc., they don't say those names.  Only the recognizable one.  

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I know a guy who has about a dozen Daytonas between him and his wife (he got into Rolex watches in the early-2000s, before all this mad hype) and they won't wear them anymore because it's simply too dangerous. They live in San Francisco. So these watches now just sit in a bank vault and they wear a smartwatch or nothing at all. 

Wearing a fake/lookalike/homage in some cities is probably a risky move too at this point. 

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celinesimon

Totally, he doesn’t even feel safe having them in his house. ☹️

That's just such a sad state for a city and its people to live in. I feel like Los Angeles is not too far behind San Francisco in that regard.

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JTinLA

That's just such a sad state for a city and its people to live in. I feel like Los Angeles is not too far behind San Francisco in that regard.

I know, it is sad. I’m not too far away from you down here in Orange County, but it still feels very different to LA…for now.  

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celinesimon

I know, it is sad. I’m not too far away from you down here in Orange County, but it still feels very different to LA…for now.  

Yes, I'm sure things are still on a more reasonable level on the other side of the Orange Curtain. But beware, LA has a way of spreading its issues to every place around. 

When I first came to Cali twenty years ago, I moved to HB and loved it! But unfortunately work and the dreaded 405 made me leave that awesome community. And once LA sucks you in, its so hard to leave 😪 

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I've mistaken the Invicta Pro Diver for a Subby more times than I'd like to admit lol.

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Aurelian

For the rest of the world:  Los Angeles is, perhaps, the least representative city in the United States. Things happen there, or happen much more often there, on a greater scale then they do in other large American cities. Like an alcoholic, it will only change when it hits rock bottom. It still has farther to go.

Your Rolex is more likely to be stolen in from your watch box, dresser, or nightstand. Watches are stolen in burglaries or by care givers for the old or infirm. It would be the rare waiter who would be a look out for a criminal gang. Like many stories, it was probably too good to check out.

If you are driving a Bentley or expensive Mercedes in Beverly Hills the chances of your watch being worth stealing are pretty high. That may be the only analysis needed. They may not be checking the finishing quality to make sure that they are not stealing a homage. The risk to the thief in Los Angeles is not high enough to deter this sort of brazen theft. The thieves are likely young teenagers tied to gangs. The risk is a few weeks in a juvenile facility. The ones who profit are almost never caught.

LA isn't the only crazy city - NYC is just as bad, if not worse. 

Do the math - liberal soft-on-crime DAs in LA and NYC = high violent crime result. 

Did you see the guy who used knuckle dusters and punched a 53-year old man in the face in NYC fracturing his eye socket - he was let walk despite him being recorded on video committing the crime. Here's the link: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10765207/Bronx-man-23-FREED-despite-filmed-punching-helpless-driver-53.html

You just don't see that happening in Texas or Arizona.

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JTinLA

I think you're right.  People get robbed all the time, but no news station is gonna do a report about someone's Seiko being stolen.  Since the general public doesn't know the names AP, Ulysse Nardin, etc., they don't say those names.  Only the recognizable one.  

Bingo! and that's the problem people need to be aware of crime and criminals regardless how small or big their possessions are. Whether is a Rolex or a Fossil watch the trauma is the same regardless of value. When regular people hear those crimes on the news especially the people that take public transportation they just say well that happens all the time what is the big issue?

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JTinLA

That's just such a sad state for a city and its people to live in. I feel like Los Angeles is not too far behind San Francisco in that regard.

Exactly - after George Gascon as DA totally destroyed San Francisco, George Soros moved him down to Los Angeles to do likewise.

As a billionaire, Soros doesn't have to worry about the dangers us everyday people are exposed to - he can just move his chess pieces around the board for whatever stupid game he's playing.

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JJMM1983

Bingo! and that's the problem people need to be aware of crime and criminals regardless how small or big their possessions are. Whether is a Rolex or a Fossil watch the trauma is the same regardless of value. When regular people hear those crimes on the news especially the people that take public transportation they just say well that happens all the time what is the big issue?

Sad but true. Like you and a few others said, crime is often about opportunity. Being aware and not putting yourself in situations to be a target is key. But it seems like just going shopping or eating at a nice restaurant can make you one these days. Very sad. It's crazy, but now I'm glad I dont live in west LA. Whereas just a couole years ago everyone wanted to live there.

And I may start wearing my Fossils more 🤔

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JTinLA

Sad but true. Like you and a few others said, crime is often about opportunity. Being aware and not putting yourself in situations to be a target is key. But it seems like just going shopping or eating at a nice restaurant can make you one these days. Very sad. It's crazy, but now I'm glad I dont live in west LA. Whereas just a couole years ago everyone wanted to live there.

And I may start wearing my Fossils more 🤔

Yes - Fossils and Skagens 😉

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JTinLA

Sad but true. Like you and a few others said, crime is often about opportunity. Being aware and not putting yourself in situations to be a target is key. But it seems like just going shopping or eating at a nice restaurant can make you one these days. Very sad. It's crazy, but now I'm glad I dont live in west LA. Whereas just a couole years ago everyone wanted to live there.

And I may start wearing my Fossils more 🤔

LOL. I wouldn't let dumb criminals get in the way of your Hobby. Personally if I own anything ultra expensive over 4k 5k I would just buy insurance. I wouldn't loose sleep over it but I would still wear fossil watches.

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If the criminals observed me today, dressed as I am they will probably think I'm wearing a Vostok 

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Unfortunately, Rolex thefts are not new (especially in LA/ see article below about string of 50 Rolex thefts in West LA alone during a 3 month period in 1990). It seems like they are always on the rise (whether it's the 1980s, 1990s or today). 

I wish Rolex didn't get rid of their stolen watch registry which, while not perfect, would at least reduce somewhat the ability to sell (fence) these watches especially now with so many new grey market watch "dealers".

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-08-05-me-437-story.html

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Rocketfan

Unfortunately, Rolex thefts are not new (especially in LA/ see article below about string of 50 Rolex thefts in West LA alone during a 3 month period in 1990). It seems like they are always on the rise (whether it's the 1980s, 1990s or today). 

I wish Rolex didn't get rid of their stolen watch registry which, while not perfect, would at least reduce somewhat the ability to sell (fence) these watches especially now with so many new grey market watch "dealers".

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-08-05-me-437-story.html

Wow, thanks for sharing that. It provided some great perspective. Just goes to show that there really isnt anything new under the sun - what we're seeing is a just a rehash of what's happened before. Insert adage here about repeating history, learning from mistakes, etc. 

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Well, I'll never go back to London now!!! Oh, wait I don't own any expensive watches 🤣🤣🤣

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A friend of mine got his Panerai taken off his wrist in Paris by a couple of dudes who lifted his drunk ass and carried him down a quiet alley. I don’t wear my ‘good’ watches out anymore. 😐