Before we get into it, shameless plug:
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*****
Okay, per my MO, got another totally autistic, rambling post. Everything in this post is shamelessly plagiarized from Tim Harford’s brilliant writings: https://timharford.com/2005/12/lunch-with-the-ft-thomas-schelling-and-the-game-of-life/
So, why are we here on WatchCrunch?
Can we all agree that Flex Culture is just the absolute worst? The vast majority of us are refugees from social media, yeah? Because...
But, the more I think about Flex Culture, the more I’m coming to the conclusion that it’s just a modern-day / technology-enabled solution to mate selection, and ain’t nothing wrong with that. I mean, you know, amongst the vast majority of animal species (and especially amongst primates) females engage in hypergamy. Thus, if you’re a male, you have to signal status in order for a female to select you to mate with. As a result, I totally get why all these dudes are showing off steering wheel shots of their luxury watches. They’re saying, “Hey, choose me! I have good genes! And you know that because I am able to generate lots of resources - so many resources that I can afford to waste vast sums on this perfectly useless and anachronistic trinket!”
Given all that, I think I gotta stop hating on Flex Culture. I mean, it’s just young guys trying to attract mates, like the rest of us old people used to do, right?
So, what does that say about us WatchCrunch’ers? Probably…
But, that can’t be all of it, right? I mean, I get that we must love watches at a proximate level, but what is the ultimate reason for our love of watches?
Here’s an example of what I mean, when I say, “What is the ultimate reason, versus the proximate reason?”
So, what’s the ultimate reason for our love of watches? I would posit that it may have to do with the Inner Flex. "WTF is the Inner Flex," you ask? Well, to get there, we gotta first talk about Thomas Schelling, game theory, and nuclear deterrence!
Thomas Schelling, game theory, and nuclear deterrence
Thomas Schelling was awarded the 2005 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for his pioneering work in game theory. When he entered the field as a young man, game theory was the preserve of theoreticians who busied themselves developing incredibly elegant mathematical models. Schelling, meanwhile, had the insight that game theory could be more than just cool math, and could be applied to solving some of the world’s most intractable and urgent problems - chief amongst them, “how to avoid nuclear armageddon.” Today, Schelling is largely seen as the primary architect of the West’s nuclear deterrence strategy that successfully helped the world navigate the Cold War competition without a nuclear exchange.
While he spent his career teaching at Harvard, he also served as a lecturer at the United States War College, and significantly influenced a coterie of intellectuals who would come to power in the Kennedy Administration. Per Tim Harford’s reporting:
McGeorge Bundy, national security adviser to Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson; Walt Rostow, Bundy’s deputy, and John McNaughton, who became a close adviser to defense secretary Robert McNamara.
Schelling inculcated in this set of intellectuals a deep and abiding taboo against the use of nuclear weapons. While this may not sound so revolutionary today, keep in mind that at the time, the Eisenhower Administration viewed nuclear weapons in much the same way as any traditional armament - ready to be used at a moment’s notice on the battlefield. Schelling, meanwhile, understood that nuclear weapons were a difference in kind entirely, and that their use would lead to the end of all humanity - he thus used his considerable influence to establish international norms prohibiting their use. Today, our utter revulsion at the thought of nuclear weapons is in part due to Schelling’s tireless efforts.
[You know how there’s a direct line between the President and Soviet Premier? Implemented after the Cuban Missile Crisis, and part of Schelling’s advice early on.]
Amongst Schelling’s key contributions in applying game theory to nuclear deterrence was the use of clear and unequivocal communications, “bright red lines,” and pre-commitment devices. Schelling recognized that while both the American and Soviet leaderships wished to avoid a nuclear exchange, in the heat of the moment, the slightest miscommunication or misunderstanding between the players could result in disaster. Key to the Cold War competition was removing any and all ambiguity - kinda hard to avoid nuclear armageddon when you have no idea what might set off your opponent!
“Well, gosh, if I do X, will they nuke me? I mean, last week, their Secretary of Defense said they’d definitely nuke me. But, the week before, the Secretary of State sorta indicated that maybe all they’d do is write up a strongly-worded statement to be delivered on the floor of UN. Hmmm… should I go ahead and do X?”
By institutionalizing and codifying precisely what constituted an act that would provoke the use of nuclear weapons, making this information public, drilling into every single official and military officer throughout the vast bureaucratic apparatuses which protocols would be followed and when, and providing the Soviets with all this documented information, Schelling’s playbook removed all ambiguity. The “bright red lines” were there for everyone to see - and, most importantly, avoid tripping! Beyond that, Schelling’s playbook called for pre-commitment devices. Again, there could be no ambiguity whatsoever! "If you do X, the consequence will always by Y, no matter what, and we’re taking all human discretion out of the equation.”
Schelling’s work was so influential that it served as the inspiration for Stanley Kubrick’s 1964 film, "Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb,” on which Schelling served as an advisor! In fact, Kubrick lampooned Schelling and hilariously skewered the very idea of the pre-commitment device with the “Doomsday Machine” accidentally ending the world, because the inept Soviet Premier neglected to tell the Americans about it!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mUCLHzWiJo
Say what you will about the horrors of the Cold War, but at the very least, humanity did not end, and a large part of that was due to Schelling’s application of game theory to the avoidance of nuclear armageddon.
Again WTF does any of this have to do with watches? Well, hold your horses! First we gotta talk about applying game theory to addiction!
Addiction and time-inconsistent utility functions
Again, per Tim Harford’s writing, Schelling was a smoker as a young man, and always found that he was at war with himself, trying to quit the foul habit:
In his 1980 essay, “The Intimate Contest for Self Command”, he tried to understand the smoker “who in self-disgust grinds his cigarettes down the disposal swearing that this time he means never again to risk orphaning his children with lung cancer and is on the street three hours later looking for a store that’s still open to buy cigarettes”. For Schelling, the addict was neither perfectly rational nor irrational and helpless – he was a rational being at war with himself, who could deploy strategies to help him win that war.
Schelling’s key insight was that we human beings are not singular entities. Instead, we are composed of multiple “selves,” each one with a different set of values and preferences, always competing with the other selves for control of the human being’s actions. Today, I’d like to smoke and I don’t care about my future self. But, my future self definitely wants to exist and wants the me of today to stop smoking so that my future self can spend time with his grandkids! We human beings have “time-inconsistent utility functions.” Knowing that, how does one overcome addiction? When you’ve got multiple players engaged in competition and cooperation… you make use of bright red lines, pre-commitment devices, and all the other tools in the game theory toolbox!
And, well, Schelling was able to successfully quit smoking and live to the ripe old age of 95!
Okay, now, finally, we are ready to talk about watches!
The “Inner Flex"
So, I love Grand Seiko watches, because they’re shiny. My proximate reason for collecting Grand Seiko is “shiny = me happy.”
But, what’s my ultimate reason? I genuinely think that the ultimate reason behind my love of Grand Seiko watches, and my watch collecting, is that one player in my brain decided to use game theory against another player in my brain. Sounds absolutely bonkers, right? But, check it out:
And you know what? It worked! Ever since I got into watches, I don’t worry at all about financial security anymore. I don’t give it a second thought.
THAT is the Inner Flex.
Well, it’s one type of Inner Flex. I’m sure there must be lots of others.
Maybe watch collecting is how one part of your brain convinces another part that you’re well-read and knowledgeable - after all, who else but someone well-read and knowledgeable would know the ins and outs of pallet fork versus lever escapements. Maybe watch collecting is how one part of your brain convinces another part that you’re still virile and rugged and sporty - after all, who else but rugged adventurers appreciate bulletproof tool watches that can survive rock climbing, cave exploring, and diving?
Here on WatchCrunch, we certainly ain’t flexing to others - I mean, we’re all anonymous on here! So, are you flexing to yourself? Are you engaged in the Inner Flex too?
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Let me ponder this. I think that you are wrong and I will explain later. But first, work.
I can agree that watch collecting can be a form of inner flex. I don’t have any luxury watches as I have small kids and work in construction, instead I’ve purchased about 20 watches in a year. But to go back to your original question if everything you say is true that can’t be why we’re on WC as it doesn’t help with that. Or is showing of to others part of what gives you that feeling? Great post by the though I had to read it a second time to remember what the original question was. 😉
That's a deep deep post,love it,and yes I've got an absurd amount of inner flex. And Dr strangelove is one of my favourite films,and now every time I watch I will look at my wrist and smile.
Let me ponder this. I think that you are wrong and I will explain later. But first, work.
Amazing. You and I will find anything to argue about.
Yo, @Aurelian, which is better? Penne or rigatoni? Wrong! Angel hair is the answer!
I can agree that watch collecting can be a form of inner flex. I don’t have any luxury watches as I have small kids and work in construction, instead I’ve purchased about 20 watches in a year. But to go back to your original question if everything you say is true that can’t be why we’re on WC as it doesn’t help with that. Or is showing of to others part of what gives you that feeling? Great post by the though I had to read it a second time to remember what the original question was. 😉
Hmmmm... that's a very good point! I hadn't thought of that!!!
So, yeah, we could totally flex to ourselves without ever having to get on an anonymous forum to do so. That's right. Damn! Well, this whole post...
Or... maybe getting on a forum is some sort of performative commitment device? Like, it forces us to believe even more strongly in the persona we're trying to convince ourselves we inhabit, right? Like the classic Seinfeld line...
Let me add this to the stack of reading on my nightstand, Melville.
interesting post as always. im thinking hard but still cant find my inner flexing yet 😂
That's a deep deep post,love it,and yes I've got an absurd amount of inner flex. And Dr strangelove is one of my favourite films,and now every time I watch I will look at my wrist and smile.
My favorite scene in the whole movie!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uCIxFizWbc
"Well, listen, how do you think I feel about it? Can you imagine how I feel about it, Dimitri? Why do you think I’m calling you? Just to say hello? Of course I like to speak to you. Of course I like to say hello. Not now, but any time, Dimitri. I’m just calling up to tell you something terrible has happened."
Named their kid after the famous George Washington shaped McNugget...
For me its just about the time and wearing different watches every day to tell it. I try not to overthink it. Let the rich flex and i'll do me.
I must say, as a politics graduate who studied some international relations, I find it so refreshing to be reading about game theory, the Cold War, and nuclear deterrence on WatchCrunch 😂
I must say, as a politics graduate who studied some international relations, I find it so refreshing to be reading about game theory, the Cold War, and nuclear deterrence on WatchCrunch 😂
This is required reading for our foreign policy book club...
https://www.amazon.com/Public-Choice-Theory-Illusion-Strategy-ebook/dp/B09L9Y2W7S
To me watch collecting is similar to a train set, a tiny world you can control and "keep whole". It is also very tangible. I used to work on cars for the same reason, but I don't have the time anymore.
To me it's a form of escapism from a world that forces you to adjust constantly, in very abstract ways.
P.S.: It also helps me preserve the purity of my precious bodily fluids.
I have many thoughts about this, but only enough energy for one. I would have sworn I’d kept my desire to mate with @Max under wraps. Bedtime, night all.
Sadly, I only read one book a month. Your post will be included on the list for my next book. I will get back to you in about a month or so.
I do think there is a lot of flexing on here. Definitely a few people on here trying to out do others but I steer clear of all that. I could go and by an Omega tomorrow but I don't as I have a young family and my priorities lie elsewhere, so it is nice to come on here and see amazing watches, some of which I have never heard of. What I do love about this community is if we met in real life, you would probably catch me looking at your watch and I would catch you looking at mine, we would laugh and start talking about watches. We are here because we have a common interest and we can debate, comment and also appreciate what others may have without any resentment. Great post and very thought provoking.
You know, it's funny, but I'm totally okay with that. I don't know what it is about WC, but I find that my reaction when I see that here on WC is totally different than it would be on social media. I suspect it has to do with anonymity.
You know, it's funny, but I'm totally okay with that. I don't know what it is about WC, but I find that my reaction when I see that here on WC is totally different than it would be on social media. I suspect it has to do with anonymity.
I do agree it is different on here. I think there is a lot of information on here to learn about watches, movements, brands etc which is part I do enjoy cos I am not an expert on watches. you don't get that on other platforms other than youtube.
It is a great post and I have enjoyed read the different takes from people. So I agree it is the best place to be for watch enthusiasts... shame I didn't think of it!
It’s posts like this that I joined the forum for.
Theres a strange bedfellow relationship isn’t there between watches and philosophy / deep musings on much more than the mechanicals?!
Yes and Amen. The different actors inside our being playing out power struggles are an enormous part of the activity we see everyday on the forum.
“Should I buy this?”
”Anxious about scratching it!”
”What watch is safe to travel with?”
”Hey look at the new acquisition”
Its fascinating to consider the drivers underneath the behaviours that all of us exhibit - and whilst the inner flex is absolutely one - i think your thesis on game theory being at work in the inner man is actually a much more all-encompassing insight on why we do what we do.
My daily post in WRUW is very much an inner flex. A way of saying to myself daily “you made a good choice today, didn’t you Sankey!” Whether that’s the Steeldive expressing something or my weirdness of matching colours to outfits or whether it’s the Breitling expressing my self perceived “looks and feels good everywhere”… the WRUW is a means of that part of my character having an outlet to say to all the other parts “hey, I’m in charge and all is well”
When I look at purchasing however, there are different parts of me that get the upper hand in the game (ie not just the drive for an inner flex). For instance, I’m 99% sure I’m gonna get the IWC Pilot 41mm in a month or two once our house sale goes through. This purchase is a wierd one as it’s a strange commitment device for me. Hear me out.
The last couple of years have been brutal for everyone in different ways. Over the last year - since the arrival of our second kid - I’ve found the stress pretty heavy and have caught myself wanting to walk away from family on multiple occasions. Call it a midlife crisis if you will, but all the inner narratives of resentment and “have I wasted my time” and “they’re such a drain” and “I can’t cope” unhelpfully rear their heads.
so I’ve had to manage those voices and keep proper perspective in order to not make some (potentially) catastrophic decisions.
im self aware enough to know that I invest objects with stories - heck we all do, it’s just the amount that we do so consciously that interests me. The story I’m telling about that IWC is
So… all that said. Game theory. Yes. And inner flex is part of it but there’s a much deeper well to draw on than I suspect a lot of us allow ourselves to consider.
Thanks for the provocation to put it down on (pixellate) paper 🤣👍🏻
Yo, dude, this is a very honest comment, and it deserves a much more in-depth response. I will say the following:
You know what's been a godsend and worth every single penny and more? Family therapy. And I don't mean, "Tell me about your feelings," and all that crap. I mean, "cognitive behavioral therapy." Here's how a typical conversation goes:
Me: My issue is that the house is always a f*cking mess and it drives me nuts
Wife: Well, if you would get off WatchCrunch and help pick up, it wouldn't be such an issue
Me: I don't understand why you don't just get the kids to pick up after themselves
Doc: Guys, here's my hypothesis. We can find a way to motivate the kids to do chores, with incentives. Is there something that will motivate them that you can both agree on?
Wife: He just wants to give them candy for everything, and then they'll die of diabetes!
Me: Well, it works!
Doc: Okay, we've established that the kids can be motivated by some sort of incentive. Is there an incentive mechanism that we can both agree on?
Wife and me: Hmmmm... money! Our kids are incredibly money-motivated!
Doc: Ah... well, can you both agree to pay the kids if they do chores?
Wife and me: Oh... I never thought of that before...
I'm exaggerating for effect. But, the key insight is that by using pure behavioral techniques, the family therapist is able to help us recognize that we get into patterns of conflict that never get resolved. And instead of banging our heads against the wall and getting increasingly frustrated with one another, now, we default to: "Ah, when X happens, simply do Y instead."
What's funny is that I've said to the therapist, "Dude! None of this is rocket science! It's like the simplest crap in the world! See X, do Y instead." His response is, "I know. The funny thing is, we all just get into these patterns, and we don't stop to come up with hypotheses and then take actions to break out of the patterns. The truth is, I don't ever do this with my own parents! I'm just too exhausted to apply it to my own personal life."
I'm nearly 50, and after like 3 sessions with this cognitive behavioral family therapist, for the first time in my life, I started to actually enjoy spending time with my mom and aunt! Like, for nearly 5 decades, every time I'd see them, for the whole following week, I'd be muttering angrily to myself, arguing against them in my head! After like 3 sessions, every time I see them now, we're laughing and I've found that I, weirdly, actually LIKE them as people! Craziness!
You might consider cognitive behavioral therapy, sir. Check out the academic literature. From what I can gather from a series of meta-studies, CBT is perhaps one of the only effective interventions.
I wish you the best of luck.
(And, yes, get the IWC!)
This is some mental gymnastics. I am not able to corelate anything you mentioned about this Thomas Schelling gentleman to the conclusion you have drawn. What is your "bright red line?" You can't justify your addiction using his philosophy. Well, I guess you can but that is messed up. Or is your addiction worrying about money? I'm lost. Sorry. It sounds like you read a book and want to share what you learned which is fine of course, been there, but you need to land somewhere and not just spout things you learned to sound "well-read and knowledgeable." I don't know if as you say wearing watch could do that, but certainly writing something like this might. Ok that was rude. Sorry. You may not be doing that, but that is how it comes across. The whole "flex" isn't doing anything for me either. I'm not sure what you mean by inner flex, I guess satisfaction? You mean the reason we do anything at all? I don't know. Also there is tons of flexing here regardless of anonymity. It's still a social medium after all. Which is fine, people gonna people. This all just sounds like your own justification to me. Me personally I don't have anything to flex, and I don't care to. To me or anyone else. I’ve given up on life. I do however enjoy a mechanical watch. How a spring pushes gears to keep time and my movement winds it. I dig that shit. I finally understand the bad guy on Heros. Sylar. Remember that show? Man what a let down. The writer strikes and all that. I forgot about all that. Anyway, objectively this is just not very coherent. D+
Dude, seriously, I can't wait for the day that you post that wrist shot! Talk about a milestone, right???
I do agree it is different on here. I think there is a lot of information on here to learn about watches, movements, brands etc which is part I do enjoy cos I am not an expert on watches. you don't get that on other platforms other than youtube.
It is a great post and I have enjoyed read the different takes from people. So I agree it is the best place to be for watch enthusiasts... shame I didn't think of it!
Thank you so much, sir! I really appreciate it!
No.
My watch flex inclinations are slightly different because I like flexing my knowledge about watches rather than just the watches themselves. However, I think that does stem from, as you call it, "inner flex."
I often have bouts of imposter syndrome in this business since I don't look like the typical watch nerd. As a result, I'm not always treated like one. So when I share watch info, it's a way to remind myself that I have plenty of (obscure) knowledge about a very niche subject that can be useful to some.
Your ramblings are so entertaining 😂
Nothing wrong with a little flex lol since majority of us are anonymous. Through the flex of WC, I get to see and learn about watches i’ve never seen/heard before
My watch flex inclinations are slightly different because I like flexing my knowledge about watches rather than just the watches themselves. However, I think that does stem from, as you call it, "inner flex."
I often have bouts of imposter syndrome in this business since I don't look like the typical watch nerd. As a result, I'm not always treated like one. So when I share watch info, it's a way to remind myself that I have plenty of (obscure) knowledge about a very niche subject that can be useful to some.
Your ramblings are so entertaining 😂
Ummm... how do I put this? It's a good thing that you don't look like the "typical watch nerd." Here's us...
... and here's you...
Nothing wrong with a little flex lol since majority of us are anonymous. Through the flex of WC, I get to see and learn about watches i’ve never seen/heard before
That being said, there is very little flex going on here on Watchcrunch. Or to quote Jacques Séguéla, who said the following in an ill-conceived attempt to support Nicolas Sarkozy: "Everyone has a Rolex. If you don’t have a Rolex by the time you reach 50, then you have clearly failed in your life."
Now that is flexing. 😉
That being said, there is very little flex going on here on Watchcrunch. Or to quote Jacques Séguéla, who said the following in an ill-conceived attempt to support Nicolas Sarkozy: "Everyone has a Rolex. If you don’t have a Rolex by the time you reach 50, then you have clearly failed in your life."
Now that is flexing. 😉
Oh the snobbery 😎
That being said, there is very little flex going on here on Watchcrunch. Or to quote Jacques Séguéla, who said the following in an ill-conceived attempt to support Nicolas Sarkozy: "Everyone has a Rolex. If you don’t have a Rolex by the time you reach 50, then you have clearly failed in your life."
Now that is flexing. 😉
Ah, man, I didn't get my first Rolex till I was 51. I have FAILED at life!😂
Ah, man, I didn't get my first Rolex till I was 51. I have FAILED at life!😂
Slacker, I tell ya ... 😂
I hear you, man! I attended this college that was one of the most expensive in the entire U.S. Only way I could attend was a bunch of financial aid (for poor people), and took out a metric sh*t ton of student loans. There were these dorms there that had kitchens. And if you lived in that particular dorm, you could opt out of the meal plan. I didn't live in one of those dorms. But, I convinced a buddy of mine who did live there to switch up forms with me, so that officially he lived in my dorm room and vice versa. That way, I could opt out of the meal plan and save some money.
As a result, I had a whole year of ramen! I also got this little, tiny Weber grill, like this...
... and I remember one night trying to cook chicken thighs on it. Everyone else was either walking to the "all you can eat" dining hall or just coming back from it, with giant bowls of ice cream in their hands... and I was crouched in front of the f*cking Weber grill, trying to get the charcoal to light, so I could sit another hour waiting for my plain chicken to cook. Finally, one of my friends took pity on me and brought me back a plate of food from the dining hall. I still hate grilled chicken to this day.
This puts better into context the giant parmesan cheese wheel under the shirt elevator story 😃