Einstein’s Definition of Insanity
Einstein’s Definition of Insanity.
TL;DR. You got the gold, so you make the rules.
Doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting different results. This is of course not the actual definition of insanity, but for the purpose of this post, it’ll do.
I’m of course talking about myself (I’m so special) and my “Quest for the Next Watch”. It’s a perilous journey, filled with pitfalls far and wide.
Back to what’s “insane” in this very loosely defined and humorous sense: Rolex, of course. What else? The world revolves around The Crown, or so it seems. I’ve been waiting for a Sub Date for 23 months, with no end in sight. Yesterday, I happened to have a little bit of time and passed by my local AD with whom I signed up for the watch back in March of 2021. Great staff, and they let me try on anything I wanted from their demo models. Last time I was there, I was really impressed by the Batman. As far as Rolex, it’s probably “the grail”, but on the gray market, it’s a bridge too far for me. I can’t justify a 50% premium over a Sub. So, the new Sub Date, the new Explorer II, or the new Air-King were the models I tried on. You know how they say “never meet your heroes”? At the risk of ruffling some feathers, my honest impression was not that favorable. The Explorer didn’t do anything for me at all. The Sub is pretty nice, but 50% more than an SMP is frankly ridiculous. I think the SMP is nicer in the metal (I have a blue 2021). The Air-King has a great size, but why did they change the case that much? The old case is curvy and thicker and just a nicer overall design. The case on the new AK is so ordinary and plain. I may just ignore these three and go for a 2019 or 2020 Air-King which I’ve seen a few times in person and was really taken by. It’s the jack-of-all-trades, master of none type of watch in the catalogue. The quirky option. Or it was…. The old one had the gorgeous Milgauss case and movement with the Faraday cage for anti-magnetism, the Explorer dial with a bit of extra bits and pieces, and a real presence on wrist. I didn’t get any of that with this new version…..
But I digress.
The thing is, last time I went to try on a Sub Date last year, I also “didn’t get it” at that time. It’s a fine watch, yes it is. It’s fine. For me, there is no value there, and I’m not talking about the fact it’ll keep its value or go up in value over time. Maybe “justification” is a better word. How they can ask give or take 50% more than an SMP is really strange. No wonder Swatch are raising prices like crazy. If Rolex can charge what they charge, why not Omega? They’re definitely on par with the quality of the watches, in fact, they’re well past Rolex in most development areas etc and have been for a long time. Maybe it’s time to stop going to the AD to try watches on. It’s likely not going to suddenly be different than the other visits.
Shouldn’t “trying on a watch” make you feel impressed and make the desire for the watch stronger than it was before you tried it on? I think it should. With my Rolex visits, it has been the opposite. It’s really odd.
On the other hand, Tudor is another brand I’ve been looking at for a few years now. I was able to try on the BB Chrono, the regular BB diver, and the BB GMT last year while on vacation in the UK, and they’re all super nice! So what gives? Rolex owns Tudor. This is just my personal preference of course, but I’m definitely more impressed by Tudor “in the metal” than I have been with Rolex. Maybe my subconscious mind steps in and blasts “NO VALUE, NO VALUE” when I handle or wear a Rolex and therefore my impression of them is not as favorable as with Tudors which are priced more like Omegas and therefore make a bit more “sense” (as much sense as a multi-thousand dollar/euro/pound watch can make in 2023).
A very funny Australian car reviewer on YouTube once said that “I got the gold, so I make the rules”. That stuck with me. If you are the customer, and you are ready to buy, then making you wait for a non-essential item is a bit of a joke. And maybe, just maybe, the joke is on you, and the joke is on me. Why do we let ourselves be treated this way? The AD very nicely suggested that I could become a customer of theirs to potentially improve my chances of getting a watch sooner. “It won’t be the deciding factor, but it may help you”. From a business point of view, I kind of get it. If Customer A has been a customer with you for 10 years, and customer B has tried to get a Rolex from you but never bought anything else, then which customer would you choose to Call with the good news of a Rolex arrival? Anybody with half a brain would prioritize Customer A. It’s just good business and ultimately, they need business and repeat business to stay afloat long term.
BUT, Rolex is not the only game in town. Vote with your feet. Buy gray as much as I hate to say it, or buy another brand.
You make the rules.
Agree that SMP is better than sub in terms of price and design language. One main reason sub and other rolexes are so expensive are due to the indices and hands being covered in white gold, along with gold in the movements. Another reason is rolex is making a statement to be super luxury so that not any Joe shmo can get a rolex, they want to it to be more exclusive, so they make it more expensive and harder to get. I actually prefer the datejust over all the overhyped rolex sports models, and I'd get a DJ36 if I had the money. Divers, gmts, etc are all better with omega, tudor, etc where they are no-nonsense tool watches without the white gold hands/indices.
Agree that SMP is better than sub in terms of price and design language. One main reason sub and other rolexes are so expensive are due to the indices and hands being covered in white gold, along with gold in the movements. Another reason is rolex is making a statement to be super luxury so that not any Joe shmo can get a rolex, they want to it to be more exclusive, so they make it more expensive and harder to get. I actually prefer the datejust over all the overhyped rolex sports models, and I'd get a DJ36 if I had the money. Divers, gmts, etc are all better with omega, tudor, etc where they are no-nonsense tool watches without the white gold hands/indices.
DJ36 definitely on my list too. I really like the previous generation 116200. Silver dial probably.
DJ36 definitely on my list too. I really like the previous generation 116200. Silver dial probably.
I'm all in on the blue fluted motif dial
I'm all in on the blue fluted motif dial
That’s nice. I also like the gray Wimbledon but maybe not as my only DJ.
I understand that other lower-priced companies beat Rolex on many specs, but in my opinion the Rolex bracelet and clasp are lightyears ahead of any of the aforementioned competitors.
This post speaks to me. I've always been intrigued by Rolex and like quite a few of their models (fluted jubilee DJ, GMT Master II, Yacht-Master, Skydweller), but would I pay any of the secondary prices for those? Probably not. And I'm not getting them at retail, which forces me to look elsewhere.
This is why I think Omega is raising prices. I've always liked Omega better, even when I was a teenager. But now, people have to be more open minded to alternatives and once they explore what's out there, they like what they see. That drives up demand and we know what happens to prices when supply stays the same but demand goes up.
Rolex set the benchmark in Swiss watches, There are more expensive watches with better complications but you can't beat a Rolex in brand power. The gray market is buying up a lot of them and retailing them without a waitlist where Rolex wants the waitlist hype. Jomashop has a lot of them for example.
That’s nice. I also like the gray Wimbledon but maybe not as my only DJ.
The wilmbledon became too hyped for me. It does look better in two-tone tho. All steel and rhodium is a lot.
Rolex set the benchmark in Swiss watches, There are more expensive watches with better complications but you can't beat a Rolex in brand power. The gray market is buying up a lot of them and retailing them without a waitlist where Rolex wants the waitlist hype. Jomashop has a lot of them for example.
Yeah if you want brand power, they are hard to beat.
Might be great staff, but 23month wait for a sub is taking the biscuit! I would be finding a new AD. 6 to 12 months is the max I would be prepared to wait for a watch and by the time I get the call there is a good chance I will have changed my mind.
I have high hopes that we are at the beginning of the end of worst of the the wait list nonsense.
Rolex set the benchmark in Swiss watches, There are more expensive watches with better complications but you can't beat a Rolex in brand power. The gray market is buying up a lot of them and retailing them without a waitlist where Rolex wants the waitlist hype. Jomashop has a lot of them for example.
Yep, great watches but even greater marketing (super brand power). They wouldn't be where they are without both.
I'm not sure I agree that Rolex bracelets/ clasps are better but even if they are, I wouldn't think the bracelets and clasps would be worth enough to deal with the current situation with ADs and grey market markups.
Don't get me wrong, I like 2 Rolex watch models and if I had the chance to buy either of them at retail, I would. With the way things have been the past few years, I will just have to wait for things to hopefully go back to normal (i.e. the Rolex supply situation for the majority of time they have been in existence when you could go to an AD and either pick up the watch or eventually get the watch with a short to moderate wait at MSRP or even with a discount as I did with mine in the early 90s).
Might be great staff, but 23month wait for a sub is taking the biscuit! I would be finding a new AD. 6 to 12 months is the max I would be prepared to wait for a watch and by the time I get the call there is a good chance I will have changed my mind.
I have high hopes that we are at the beginning of the end of worst of the the wait list nonsense.
Yeah it’s been a while. And by now, most of the excitement has disappeared. I haven’t been blown away by the watch so maybe I should just move on to something else
I agree regarding modern Subs. For me they're like hearing the same song on repeat wherever you go, you get sick of it; fast!
I actually feel the same about my Explorer II as you do for the Sub. I had lusted after one for years, yet now owning one, it's one of the watches I wear the least. I don't find it that comfortable.
It's a real shame so many ADs are in effect tarnishing the Rolex brand with these insane wait lists, and the need to buy additional stuff before you're considered 'worthy'.
It's not as bad here in the UK as it sounds for you, and I'm blessed with a truly wonderful AD, so very aware I'm in the minority.
For me personally, no watch is worth paying a huge premium over retail, however desperate I need that 'watch fix'!
I genuinely hope you 'get the call' before the whole waitlist debacle puts you off permanently.
Here's my conspiracy theory...there is no shortage of Rolex watches and there never has been one. From what I've read Rolex pumps out about a million watches a year. That's a lot of watches.
The Chinese economy took off a few years ago and created tons of wealth in their country. The newly rich there needed things to spend their cash on and decided the flex of a Rolex was a nice indicator of status to those around them. That situation caused a significant increase in demand for Rolex.
Next, during the lock down bored flippers (Flippers will notice upwards trends in any market and gravitate there. Day traders are essentially flippers.) saw an opportunity to make a quick profit due to increased demand and started buying up hot Rolex models. This made it appear that supply was not keeping pace with demand for Rolex. The watches bought by the flippers aren't really off the market and therefore don't in actuality decrease supply because the flippers don't intend to keep their newly acquired Rolex.
There is a temporary, but extended increase in demand caused by the big jump in the number of buyers in China and an apparent decrease in the supply available due to flippers holding excessively large amounts of stock. An increase in demand and a decrease in supply (even if it's only in the minds of buyers) will drive up prices. However, demand should decrease over time when either the Chinese economy cools (it has cooled greatly) or the newly rich have all the Rolex models that interest them.
The final, and in my mind the most significant, reason there has been a huge increase in prices for Rolex models is that ADs have essentially become flippers themselves. I contend that many ADs work out a deal with grey market sellers to take their inventory (creating the appearance of a retail supply shortage) and then the grey marketers sell the hot watch models well above the prices ADs are contractually allowed by Rolex to offer them. Selling their inventory through grey market sellers allows ADs to sell with much higher profit margins even though they have to give the grey marketers a cut in the process.
You can buy any Rolex model in new condition you want TODAY with no waiting if you're willing to buy from a grey market dealer at the the price they command. So much for the idea of a supply shortage. Where are the grey marketers getting their watches? Some are from the traditional entrepreneurial flippers, but I say many watches are coming from the ADs themselves.
Am I crazy? Am I missing something about Rolex's oversight that wouldn't allow ADs to use this business model? Do you have other theories?
Here's my conspiracy theory...there is no shortage of Rolex watches and there never has been one. From what I've read Rolex pumps out about a million watches a year. That's a lot of watches.
The Chinese economy took off a few years ago and created tons of wealth in their country. The newly rich there needed things to spend their cash on and decided the flex of a Rolex was a nice indicator of status to those around them. That situation caused a significant increase in demand for Rolex.
Next, during the lock down bored flippers (Flippers will notice upwards trends in any market and gravitate there. Day traders are essentially flippers.) saw an opportunity to make a quick profit due to increased demand and started buying up hot Rolex models. This made it appear that supply was not keeping pace with demand for Rolex. The watches bought by the flippers aren't really off the market and therefore don't in actuality decrease supply because the flippers don't intend to keep their newly acquired Rolex.
There is a temporary, but extended increase in demand caused by the big jump in the number of buyers in China and an apparent decrease in the supply available due to flippers holding excessively large amounts of stock. An increase in demand and a decrease in supply (even if it's only in the minds of buyers) will drive up prices. However, demand should decrease over time when either the Chinese economy cools (it has cooled greatly) or the newly rich have all the Rolex models that interest them.
The final, and in my mind the most significant, reason there has been a huge increase in prices for Rolex models is that ADs have essentially become flippers themselves. I contend that many ADs work out a deal with grey market sellers to take their inventory (creating the appearance of a retail supply shortage) and then the grey marketers sell the hot watch models well above the prices ADs are contractually allowed by Rolex to offer them. Selling their inventory through grey market sellers allows ADs to sell with much higher profit margins even though they have to give the grey marketers a cut in the process.
You can buy any Rolex model in new condition you want TODAY with no waiting if you're willing to buy from a grey market dealer at the the price they command. So much for the idea of a supply shortage. Where are the grey marketers getting their watches? Some are from the traditional entrepreneurial flippers, but I say many watches are coming from the ADs themselves.
Am I crazy? Am I missing something about Rolex's oversight that wouldn't allow ADs to use this business model? Do you have other theories?
Nope I think you’re very spot on here. Great points and very much the same thoughts I have. Clearly, ADs are selling to the grays all the time and you can indeed get any watch you want right now - at a premium.
Rolex (and Swatch and others) are clients of the company I work for, so I’ve seen the invoices between Rolex and a prominent AD in Europe In particular. Some shipments have more than 200 watches in them…. And a lot of those are sports models. There has never been a shortage - it’s just the ADs controlling the distribution in various - perhaps sometimes unethical - ways.
I have a 124060 (No date Sub) and a white dial SMP. Both are nice watches. However, the bracelet on the Sub is better. Does that make it worth the almost 2x price? No. However, on the topic of bracelets, of Omega would add 2mm of taper to the SMP bracelet, it would probably be enough to make the roughly 50% cost undeniable - especially against Tudor. But, that’s just my .02.