Worth it to pay a flipper?

I am really in love with the Tudor Pelagos 39, which right now means waitlists and playing AD games. I saw that there have been a few private sales in the $4600-4800 price range lately. Where I am at (Arizona) sales tax is just under 10% where I would be paying $4800 to get it from an AD anyway. I know if I just wait 6 months it would probably be pretty easy to get one at an AD and/or prices would probably come down more, but I am of course impatient. Do you think it would be worth just buying one from a private party sale since I would come out about even compared to an AD anyway? 

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I'd wait, spending that much money I want to know for sure that it's real and has a valid warranty from the manufacturer. 

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I've said this before, and I'll say it again...  there is only 1 truly non-renewable resource in the known universe:  TIME.

[Though, given special relativity, there is this concept of the "block universe" and thus the probability that all moments (past, present, future) continue to exist together, but that it is just an artifact of our own perceptions that we experience "time passing."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwzN5YwMzv0

But, I digress...]

If you buy the Pelagos now, you are trading money for time.  If you have lots of money, then that tradeoff makes perfect sense.  If you have very little money, then it makes sense to trade your time for money.  

I grew up very poor, and so it was deeply ingrained in me to always give up my time to conserve money.  And, one day as I approached my fifth decade on this earth, my bank and brokerage accounts overfloweth, and yet I was still waiting until the Heinz ketchup went on sale for $3.99 as opposed to $4.99 before purchasing, or going to Costco and waiting in line for 30 minutes to save $5 on my tankful of gasoline.  I continued this ridiculous behavior, until one day my wife pointed out to me, "@HotWatchChick69, you are no longer a 6 year-old, living off government cheese, in Section 8 housing.  You can afford the Heinz even when it's not on sale."

For me, no more trading my time on this earth to conserve money.

OP, only you know your own personal / financial situation.  All I would say is that if you have the means, go ahead and buy that bottle of Heinz.  It's worth it...  even if it does cost $2 more than the store brand ketchup.

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Depends on your urgency - wait time for new '39s shouldnt be that bad - you may pay the same, maybe a little less, but you get confidence in the warranty, plus dealer support if you have an issue. 

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I'm not against paying flippers if you're okay with the price and you get the warranty card.  It's like used car salesmen.  They have a  purpose and some are even pretty okay people, but the few bad apples really soil the batch.  Tread carefully, right?

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I personally would not, unless you don’t live near an AD and don’t want to waste your time tracking it down. I’ve already seen it in my AD case, so it is not too long before the hype dies down.

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If you anticipate ever buying anything else from that same AD in the future, you may help build a relationship with them if you wait. I don't believe in playing those type of games, but there is no doubt that a good relationship with a trusted AD can reap some rewards. You are also guaranteed that the watch you get is in brand new condition, and 100% authentic. Finally, you eliminate the risks involved in buying from an unknown private seller.

I also don't think that you'll have to wait too long to get it from the AD. As long as you're not constantly thinking about it, the time will go by quickly. 

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OP, if the worry is getting full 5 year warranty and box and papers, I can introduce you to my dealer, who will give you amazing price on it, brand new, still in plastic, etc., and you’ll even get the “out of state” tax treatment, and save yourself some sales tax. 

Happy to make the intro if it’ll be helpful. 

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Patience is your friend, friend 🙂 I personally would never pay a flipper who is asking more than MSRP if that's the case. If not then your just buying a used watch which is cool.

From the business point of view if you're flipping something its usually for profiteering and while I am not you I work too hard for my money to give it to someone taking advantage of current market conditions when waiting means I can save money and usually get a watch for less than MSRP when market conditions change.

The time to pay MSRP is usually if you want a limited edition. (A true limited edition, not 5000 pieces, I'm looking at you Seiko)

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No. 

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HotWatchChick69

I've said this before, and I'll say it again...  there is only 1 truly non-renewable resource in the known universe:  TIME.

[Though, given special relativity, there is this concept of the "block universe" and thus the probability that all moments (past, present, future) continue to exist together, but that it is just an artifact of our own perceptions that we experience "time passing."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwzN5YwMzv0

But, I digress...]

If you buy the Pelagos now, you are trading money for time.  If you have lots of money, then that tradeoff makes perfect sense.  If you have very little money, then it makes sense to trade your time for money.  

I grew up very poor, and so it was deeply ingrained in me to always give up my time to conserve money.  And, one day as I approached my fifth decade on this earth, my bank and brokerage accounts overfloweth, and yet I was still waiting until the Heinz ketchup went on sale for $3.99 as opposed to $4.99 before purchasing, or going to Costco and waiting in line for 30 minutes to save $5 on my tankful of gasoline.  I continued this ridiculous behavior, until one day my wife pointed out to me, "@HotWatchChick69, you are no longer a 6 year-old, living off government cheese, in Section 8 housing.  You can afford the Heinz even when it's not on sale."

For me, no more trading my time on this earth to conserve money.

OP, only you know your own personal / financial situation.  All I would say is that if you have the means, go ahead and buy that bottle of Heinz.  It's worth it...  even if it does cost $2 more than the store brand ketchup.

Nicely said!

"time has no u turns and no driveways for awkward 3 point turns"😂 

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Unless you are short of time 😉and have extra cash. Or it’s a discontinued piece and you have convinced yourself that it is the only watch that is going to make you happy.. by all means 

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I go grey only for discontinued or sold out limited edition watches I want.  I've done it three times. One of them cost me 100 bucks more than MSRP, one cost me 300 over MSRP and one cost me 150 over MSRP. I only have one of those in my possession today.

Something to think about:

I have a feeling the Pelagos will be releasing color variations in the next year, be it bezel ones or dial ones.

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HotWatchChick69

I've said this before, and I'll say it again...  there is only 1 truly non-renewable resource in the known universe:  TIME.

[Though, given special relativity, there is this concept of the "block universe" and thus the probability that all moments (past, present, future) continue to exist together, but that it is just an artifact of our own perceptions that we experience "time passing."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwzN5YwMzv0

But, I digress...]

If you buy the Pelagos now, you are trading money for time.  If you have lots of money, then that tradeoff makes perfect sense.  If you have very little money, then it makes sense to trade your time for money.  

I grew up very poor, and so it was deeply ingrained in me to always give up my time to conserve money.  And, one day as I approached my fifth decade on this earth, my bank and brokerage accounts overfloweth, and yet I was still waiting until the Heinz ketchup went on sale for $3.99 as opposed to $4.99 before purchasing, or going to Costco and waiting in line for 30 minutes to save $5 on my tankful of gasoline.  I continued this ridiculous behavior, until one day my wife pointed out to me, "@HotWatchChick69, you are no longer a 6 year-old, living off government cheese, in Section 8 housing.  You can afford the Heinz even when it's not on sale."

For me, no more trading my time on this earth to conserve money.

OP, only you know your own personal / financial situation.  All I would say is that if you have the means, go ahead and buy that bottle of Heinz.  It's worth it...  even if it does cost $2 more than the store brand ketchup.

Absolutely perfect. I only came to this realization a couple of years ago. 

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watchingaz

Absolutely perfect. I only came to this realization a couple of years ago. 

You mean about the "block universe"?  I know!  Crazy, right?  I mean, I was a physics major in college, and I didn't even come to this realization until very recently.  Another gripe: For the life of me, I could never understand General Relativity...  until I read Walter Isaacson's biography of Einstein.  I mean, in General Relativity classes, you sit there and solve 9-dimensional tensor arrays, but you never sit and actually learn how to think about how mass warps space-time in an intuitive fashion!  Einstein didn't sit around solving tensor arrays to come to his insights on General Relativity.  He did simple thought experiments!

I wish that book had been around way back when I was in college!  I might have ended up a working theoretical physicist, instead of a useless "business guy."

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I am in same boat as you, I found one Chrono24, I could have had for $5,000 roughly.

With my sales tax, 5.6% at MSRP, I'd pay $4,646 roughly. I offered to buy for $4,600 and I'd pay shipping. He was in UK. He declined and sold a day later for the full ask.

I am feeling like I will wait, I want the whole AD experience having never bought a luxury watch new. My AD told me they expect to have several next month and more by end of year. So fingers crossed. I need to see it, i tend not to like, sub 40mm dive watches.

I'd say wait. I have: Tudor Pelagos 42mm, Tudor Sub (79090), Rolex No date sub (14060M). Seiko SLA 017. So I only want the 39mm because it is no date and I've heard it actually measures closer to 40mm. Adrian Barker Channel, and another, YouTuber claimed the same thing. 40mm.

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HotWatchChick69

OP, if the worry is getting full 5 year warranty and box and papers, I can introduce you to my dealer, who will give you amazing price on it, brand new, still in plastic, etc., and you’ll even get the “out of state” tax treatment, and save yourself some sales tax. 

Happy to make the intro if it’ll be helpful. 

Please make the intro for me? PM me.