How low can you go - Watch Limbo....

So, I've been following UK prices of the 126610LN for a while now, and it's pretty stark. UK List is £8450 now, but Grey market 2022 unworn peaked up to £15K in March, and has been declining slowly ever since. Today, there's an unworn 2022 advertised by a reputable dealer at £12,500. 

My own feeeling is that we will see a steady decline over the next 18-24 months - although ADs are still drip-feeding new stock, some independent dealers will need to sell down stock and there will be more private inndividuals trying to shift watches they have kept for years, but can no longer do so for financial reasons. there will be many going to dealers for a price, but unable to take the offers they are given (dealers are already hesitant to buy stock in, and will only do so for low, low prices). 

I know what the 'lifestyle' youtubers think, and what the 'investment gurus' are saying, but what do us watch people think?

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It's unfortunate, but I agree with you that we may see quite a bit of distressed selling in the near future.  In any downturn, credit contracts significantly, and then "cash is king" as they say.

  • Relative of mine had a neighbor approach her during the Great Recession.  Neighbor could no longer make mortgage payments, and bank was going to foreclose.  Relative stepped in and bought the house in a private sale.  According to the Case Shiller index, the house is now worth 2.75x what it was when she bought it...  and return on invested capital is through the roof, because she only put 20% down payment and borrowed the rest from a bank!!!
  • I've not had that kind of luck - nobody coming to me to sell me their home - but I was able to recently pick this up for 44% off MSRP!
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Hmm.

In my experience dealers in the UK are still buying and paying fairly decent money for many watches. I asked just recently what I could get for my Turn O Graph, hypothetically because it isn't for sale and won't be in the foresseable future, it's in pretty nice shape (better than most) but not perfect condition with box and de laminated card, I was offered almost £6000. That doesn't strike me as a low, low price. It might just be the hype stuff that they already have 10 in stock and can't move where the big dips can be observed.

Now in regards to prices. They are still well high and falling slowly. I think they will continue to do so for a while. What I don't think we'll see is a big panic sell-off and shock-like steep discounts with prices well under list for Submariners, GMTs or let alone Daytonas any time soon or is this not what you are referring to? People might try to get rid ofntheir watches as they see the market falling but when they realise that they can't get much they will just keep it instead of dumping it. I think most people aren't balls deep in unhealthy debt (or I hope so) and can sit this one out. But then again buying watches as an investment strikes me as insane so what do I know what that type of person would or wouldn't do...

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MegaBob

Hmm.

In my experience dealers in the UK are still buying and paying fairly decent money for many watches. I asked just recently what I could get for my Turn O Graph, hypothetically because it isn't for sale and won't be in the foresseable future, it's in pretty nice shape (better than most) but not perfect condition with box and de laminated card, I was offered almost £6000. That doesn't strike me as a low, low price. It might just be the hype stuff that they already have 10 in stock and can't move where the big dips can be observed.

Now in regards to prices. They are still well high and falling slowly. I think they will continue to do so for a while. What I don't think we'll see is a big panic sell-off and shock-like steep discounts with prices well under list for Submariners, GMTs or let alone Daytonas any time soon or is this not what you are referring to? People might try to get rid ofntheir watches as they see the market falling but when they realise that they can't get much they will just keep it instead of dumping it. I think most people aren't balls deep in unhealthy debt (or I hope so) and can sit this one out. But then again buying watches as an investment strikes me as insane so what do I know what that type of person would or wouldn't do...

I agree - this won't be a sharp drop-off, just a steady decline over time back towards MSRP of modest premiums, as demand cools off and more watches come up for sale..

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I think the prices will continue to decline for as long as we Suffer this ‘cost of living crisis’. Once inflation settles, interest rates begin to fall, the prices and demand will shoot up just as quickly. People will be desperate to recoup losses and get in early on stocking up and flipping. 

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the market will eat crap in the new year, now dealers are counting on the upcoming holiday shopping to offload stock that they acquired and still have, this is where the "still holding" is coming from, wait a bit and yes in the new year, 6 to 8 months from now, it's gonna be a shit show, also the fact that Mr. Wonderful crap made that YouTube video about how he spoke to Rolex CEO and they have no stock, that is exactly the sign that they have stock and they feel the shit/dip, basically everything opposite of what he said int he video is happening! Mr. Wonderful don't wanna see his collection plummet or many more people access high end watches, it's the Elite that is annoyed by loosing the "prestige" they bough to the "proletariat"... but I'm telling you brother! this shit is going down and I love it! 

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NF8-vi00pJ0

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I, LOVE IT. seeing dealers desperately trying to sell off stock to get lunch money is real life cinema to me. 
 

i have been keeping track of 114270 and 214270 prices here in SG. the former goes for 6,500 SGD and the latter ranges 8,500 SGD - 12K. 

i do expect prices to increase slightly come the festive season, but im pretty sure its going downhill the minute we see 2023.. at least I hope it will

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MegaBob

Hmm.

In my experience dealers in the UK are still buying and paying fairly decent money for many watches. I asked just recently what I could get for my Turn O Graph, hypothetically because it isn't for sale and won't be in the foresseable future, it's in pretty nice shape (better than most) but not perfect condition with box and de laminated card, I was offered almost £6000. That doesn't strike me as a low, low price. It might just be the hype stuff that they already have 10 in stock and can't move where the big dips can be observed.

Now in regards to prices. They are still well high and falling slowly. I think they will continue to do so for a while. What I don't think we'll see is a big panic sell-off and shock-like steep discounts with prices well under list for Submariners, GMTs or let alone Daytonas any time soon or is this not what you are referring to? People might try to get rid ofntheir watches as they see the market falling but when they realise that they can't get much they will just keep it instead of dumping it. I think most people aren't balls deep in unhealthy debt (or I hope so) and can sit this one out. But then again buying watches as an investment strikes me as insane so what do I know what that type of person would or wouldn't do...

I think most people aren't balls deep in unhealthy debt (or I hope so) and can sit this one out.

The number of people with unhealthy debt is rising quickly, and savings rates are dropping. This is largely due to a number of COVID-related measures expiring.

Granted, the people affected are largely not the people owning Rolexes, but a shift in the economy may change that.

So ... BTO is playing in the back of my mind. ("Baby, you just ain't seen nothing yet.") The last time such an amount of inflation had to be corrected, the results were anything but pretty.