How low can you go - Watch Limbo....

So, I've been following UK prices of the 126610LN for a while now, and it's pretty stark. UK List is £8450 now, but Grey market 2022 unworn peaked up to £15K in March, and has been declining slowly ever since. Today, there's an unworn 2022 advertised by a reputable dealer at £12,500. 

My own feeeling is that we will see a steady decline over the next 18-24 months - although ADs are still drip-feeding new stock, some independent dealers will need to sell down stock and there will be more private inndividuals trying to shift watches they have kept for years, but can no longer do so for financial reasons. there will be many going to dealers for a price, but unable to take the offers they are given (dealers are already hesitant to buy stock in, and will only do so for low, low prices). 

I know what the 'lifestyle' youtubers think, and what the 'investment gurus' are saying, but what do us watch people think?

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It's unfortunate, but I agree with you that we may see quite a bit of distressed selling in the near future.  In any downturn, credit contracts significantly, and then "cash is king" as they say.

  • Relative of mine had a neighbor approach her during the Great Recession.  Neighbor could no longer make mortgage payments, and bank was going to foreclose.  Relative stepped in and bought the house in a private sale.  According to the Case Shiller index, the house is now worth 2.75x what it was when she bought it...  and return on invested capital is through the roof, because she only put 20% down payment and borrowed the rest from a bank!!!
  • I've not had that kind of luck - nobody coming to me to sell me their home - but I was able to recently pick this up for 44% off MSRP!
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I agree - this won't be a sharp drop-off, just a steady decline over time back towards MSRP of modest premiums, as demand cools off and more watches come up for sale..

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I think the prices will continue to decline for as long as we Suffer this ‘cost of living crisis’. Once inflation settles, interest rates begin to fall, the prices and demand will shoot up just as quickly. People will be desperate to recoup losses and get in early on stocking up and flipping. 

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I, LOVE IT. seeing dealers desperately trying to sell off stock to get lunch money is real life cinema to me. 
 

i have been keeping track of 114270 and 214270 prices here in SG. the former goes for 6,500 SGD and the latter ranges 8,500 SGD - 12K. 

i do expect prices to increase slightly come the festive season, but im pretty sure its going downhill the minute we see 2023.. at least I hope it will

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I think most people aren't balls deep in unhealthy debt (or I hope so) and can sit this one out.

The number of people with unhealthy debt is rising quickly, and savings rates are dropping. This is largely due to a number of COVID-related measures expiring.

Granted, the people affected are largely not the people owning Rolexes, but a shift in the economy may change that.

So ... BTO is playing in the back of my mind. ("Baby, you just ain't seen nothing yet.") The last time such an amount of inflation had to be corrected, the results were anything but pretty.